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Postby Volkov Yuriy » Fri Oct 24, 2025 3:35 am

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 24, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Composite PMI Index

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is under pressure after softer-than-expected UK inflation. The easing in price pressures has increased the likelihood of Bank of England policy loosening over the coming meetings, narrowing the yield differential in favor of the dollar. While rate expectations are partly in the price, UK releases still point to cooling household demand.

The U.S. inflation print is a potential short-term market driver. Given the high sensitivity to real rates, even a neutral U.S. report can keep the dollar supported. If actual price dynamics exceed consensus, demand for funding and risk assets may be capped, reinforcing pressure on the pound.

The UK policy and economic backdrop remains mixed: budget priorities and household spending face a slowing economy, while the external environment for exports is soft. Altogether this argues for a cautious view on sterling and supports a sell-on-rallies approach in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3325, SL 1.3375, TP 1.3225

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Oct 27, 2025 2:20 am

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 27, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY holds near multi-week highs thanks to the yield differential and a cautious tone among investors before the FOMC meeting. Elevated nominal and real US yields, alongside restrained monetary conditions in Japan, keep a positive differential in favor of the dollar and support buying interest in the pair.

On the domestic side for Japan, the market still expects very low funding costs in the near term and a gradual approach to any future changes by the Bank of Japan. Given modest domestic demand and uneven price dynamics, JGB yields remain contained, leaving the yen with few sustained drivers for appreciation.

External factors also favor the dollar: persistent inflows into US instruments amid global uncertainty underpin the trend. Proximity to areas that may trigger comments from Japanese authorities calls for careful risk management, but fundamentally there are still limited preconditions for a meaningful softening of the USD against the JPY.

Trading recommendation: BUY 152.90, SL 152.25, TP 153.90

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Oct 27, 2025 3:07 pm

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT  for 27-31 October 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00

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Gold starts the week near record territory, with spot prices fluctuating around $4,080 per ounce. Support comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the October 28–29 meeting and the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the decision. Headlines about a potential temporary government funding pause in the U.S. and delayed data releases enhance gold’s role as a defensive asset, while September inflation came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing the case for policy easing. In addition, fund inflows into gold have stayed strong after October’s price spike.

The fundamental backdrop remains constructive: World Gold Council data point to renewed net purchases by central banks late in the summer, and October saw more active investment flows into “paper” gold as market volatility rose and real yields eased. Risks to this view include a more cautious Fed tone and a brief dollar rebound after the decision, but these are offset by steady institutional demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Trade idea: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00


#SP500: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025​


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U.S. equities enter the week on strong footing: the S&P 500 holds near 6,790 after softer September inflation data and lower government bond yields. Markets are focused on the Fed’s October 28–29 decision; the prevailing view anticipates another rate cut, which would reduce borrowing costs and support the valuation of future earnings. The reporting season is in full swing, with expectations for double-digit earnings growth for 2025 and a busy week of results from index constituents.

Fundamentally, the index benefits from a combination of easing rate pressure, resilient profit expectations in sectors tied to digital infrastructure and AI-related investment, and a broadly steady consumer backdrop. Key risks include any prolonged disruption to federal services that could distort the macro data flow, and the chance of tighter corporate guidance given currency strength and fluctuations in global electronics demand.

Trade idea: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025


#BRENT: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20​


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Brent trades around $66 per barrel. The weekly news flow is mixed: on one hand, infrastructure risks linger in the Black and Baltic Sea regions; on the other, international agencies flag accelerating supply growth alongside moderate demand. The earlier OPEC+ decision to allow a marginal output increase and revised surplus projections effectively cap prices despite sporadic supply disruptions and sanctions-related headlines.

By late October, industry assessments imply a gradual rebuild in inventories and a softer price path into Q4, albeit with elevated headline-driven volatility. Additional pressure comes from a cooler global backdrop and rising non-OPEC+ production, while any Fed rate cut would only partly lift the commodity complex. Short-position risks include an escalation of geopolitical tensions that threatens exports and an unexpectedly sharp draw in weekly U.S. stock data.

Trade idea: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Tue Oct 28, 2025 2:12 am

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 28, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 114000, SL 116000, TP 90000

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The situation in Bitcoin remains structurally consistent. The price has continued rising, reaching an intermediate resistance level — the previous local high formed after a sharp drop and rebound.

This level presents a good opportunity to initiate the next impulsive decline. Additionally, a fully formed and complete zigzag pattern is now clearly visible.

Thus, in the near term, there is a high probability of an impulsive decline driven by wave 3 of the downward impulse.

Therefore, it is recommended to start selling at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 114000, SL 116000, TP 90000.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Tue Oct 28, 2025 11:23 am

Nikkei surges higher: What’s powering the market now

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#NIKKEI has soared above 50,000. The rally is fueled by a mix of political momentum following Sanae Takaichi’s arrival, the predictably dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, a weak yen benefiting exporters, accelerating corporate reforms, and a revival in tourism and domestic demand — all pushing profit expectations and valuations to record highs.

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Key drivers of further #NIKKEI growth:
  • Weak yen + dovish BoJ: Exporters earn more when converting foreign revenue into yen; cheap credit keeps valuations and multiples strong.
  • AI and semiconductor investment cycle: Japan is expanding chip fabs, while local suppliers of materials and equipment enjoy long-term contracts and steady cash flow.
  • Corporate reforms & buybacks: Companies are selling off non-core assets, boosting efficiency, and buying back shares — lifting EPS and investor confidence.
  • Tourism & services boom: Japan is affordable for travelers, spending is up, and hotels, retailers, restaurants, and transport firms are reporting record revenues.
  • Rising wages & consumption: Households have more disposable income; businesses raise prices moderately, margins stay solid, and revenues grow steadily across sectors.
#NIKKEI’s growth isn’t only about the weak yen. FreshForex analysts believe political reform momentum, loose monetary policy, renewed chip demand, disciplined corporate management, and a robust services/tourism sector are key supports. The base scenario: the uptrend could extend through 2025–2026, though risks include a sharp yen rebound or political delays.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Wed Oct 29, 2025 6:07 am

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 29, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

20:00 EET. USD - FOMC decision on the key interest rate

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.16–1.17, holding its ground ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Markets are pricing a 25 bps rate cut, and attention is centered on the press conference tone and the assessment of U.S. inflation dynamics. While the dollar sees mild intraday support into the event, the combined effect of an easing step and a higher probability of additional accommodation into December underpins the euro against the dollar.

From the Eurozone, signals are moderately stable. The ECB’s recent survey readings on inflation expectations do not argue for immediate tightening, while the latest prints on business activity and sentiment point to gradual stabilization. This removes some pressure from the euro and helps EUR/USD hover near 1.1650, in line with this week’s market commentary.

Short-term volatility risks remain tied to geopolitics and the U.S.–China trade agenda. Any hints of reduced tensions typically curb safe-haven demand for the dollar and aid the euro. With the Fed move largely priced, a shift in the balance of risks toward a more accommodative policy path could nudge the pair toward 1.17.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1635, SL 1.1615, TP 1.1690

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Thu Oct 30, 2025 2:51 am

Analysis of margin levels for October 30, 2025 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 3939.15-3989.15, TP1-3889.15, TP2-3762.85.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3338.00–3383.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being made above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers. XAUUSD: SELL 3939.15-3989.15, TP1-3889.15, TP2-3762.85.

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• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 4095.00–4110.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.

• The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 28.10.2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3939.15.

• The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3989.15.

• Intraday targets: updating the lows from 28.10.2025–3889.15.

• Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of SNKZ-3762.85. XAUUSD: SELL 3939.15-3989.15, TP1-3889.15, TP2-3762.85.

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• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3939.15-3989.15, Take Profit 1–3889.15, Take Profit 2–3762.85.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Fri Oct 31, 2025 2:02 am

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 31, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1570–1.1580 after this week’s major central-bank decisions. On October 29, the Fed cut the policy rate by 0.25 pp while indicating that further easing in December is not guaranteed and announcing an end to balance-sheet reduction from December 1. This combination of a cautious tone and the halt to “tightening via the balance sheet” was largely priced in and failed to deliver durable support to risk currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively elevated. That backdrop sustains demand for the dollar and caps euro rebounds.

For the euro, the lack of fresh stimulus from the ECB is a key factor: on October 30 the central bank left its rate unchanged, and recent surveys and business-activity indicators point to a gradual recovery rather than an acceleration strong enough to flip the rate differential with the U.S. in the euro’s favor. As a result, the near-term fundamental balance for the pair is tilted toward moderate downside.

Additional risks in global trade and tariff uncertainty support defensive demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation indicators (PCE) are broadly in line with expectations, keeping the debate alive about a pause after the Fed’s October move. Together these inputs favor a pullback in EURUSD from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1575, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1500

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Nov 03, 2025 1:35 am

Market Fundamental Analysis for November 3, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

03.11 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:

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The pound remains under pressure due to softer domestic macro indicators and rising expectations of policy easing by the Bank of England. Markets discuss the possibility of a rate cut as early as November amid slowing inflation and signs of a cooling labor market. Even if the decision is delayed, the policy tone aimed at supporting the economy increases the bias toward a weaker currency.

Fiscal considerations add uncertainty: expectations of a tighter budget later this month narrow the space for consumer activity and investment. As a result, the risk premium on UK assets rises and investors favor dollar instruments, pulling the pair lower.

The US retains a yield advantage and receives support from the flow of data on employment and business activity. A stronger dollar, together with locally softer BoE expectations, forms a fundamental downward bias for GBPUSD in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3135, SL 1.3185, TP 1.3050

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Nov 03, 2025 8:57 am

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT for 3-7 November 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4012.50, SL 3920.00, TP 4200.00

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Gold starts the week near 4,012 per ounce as interest in safe-haven assets is supported by the recent Fed rate cut and the softer trend in U.S. Treasury yields. Investment demand remains firm: inflows into gold funds rose in Q3, and central banks maintained active purchases, helping the price hold above round levels. This week the market’s focus is on U.S. business activity indices and Friday’s labor report, which will set the tone for the dollar and real yields.

The fundamental balance for gold over the week is moderately positive: cheaper financing conditions in the U.S. and ongoing official-sector buying help offset potential volatility spikes. Risks to the upside scenario include unexpectedly strong U.S. labor data and a sharp dollar rebound, which could temporarily cool demand for metals. Supportive factors remain structural central-bank purchases, solid ETF holdings, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4012.50, SL 3920.00, TP 4200.00



#SP500: BUY 6860, SL 6740, TP 7120

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U.S. equities open the week on a positive note: futures are firmer after a strong October and a second rate cut this year by the Fed, easing financial conditions and keeping 10-year Treasury yields near 4%. Demand for equities is supported by earnings expectations at major companies and steady investor interest in rate-sensitive segments and spending on digital infrastructure.

Key drivers this week are the ISM reports for manufacturing and services, the job-openings report, and Friday’s employment data. If the figures confirm easing labor-market pressures without signs of overheating, the backdrop for the index should remain constructive. Risks include weak corporate guidance, unexpectedly “hot” jobs data, and renewed tariff uncertainty, any of which could lift volatility and temporarily narrow risk appetite.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6860, SL 6740, TP 7120



#BRENT: BUY 65.20, SL 62.60, TP 73.00

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Brent crude stabilizes around 65 per barrel after OPEC+ decided to pause the planned output increase in Q1 2026. Headlines also include reports of damage to Russian energy infrastructure and record U.S. production—a mix that keeps prices range-bound: a supply-risk premium limits declines while surplus concerns cap rallies. Another near-term catalyst is the U.S. EIA weekly stocks report on Wednesday, which quickly reflects shifts in supply-demand balance.

Structurally, the oil market remains sensitive to signals on future OPEC+ volumes and the trajectory of global demand. The IEA points to supply growth outpacing demand, raising the risk of inventory builds into year-end. In the short run, news on flows and dollar moves can provide support. Risks to long positions include confirmation of faster-than-expected non-OPEC+ supply growth, soft macro data from key consumers, and deeper outlines of a surplus.

Trading recommendation: BUY 65.20, SL 62.60, TP 73.00

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