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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 24, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Composite PMI Index

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is under pressure after softer-than-expected UK inflation. The easing in price pressures has increased the likelihood of Bank of England policy loosening over the coming meetings, narrowing the yield differential in favor of the dollar. While rate expectations are partly in the price, UK releases still point to cooling household demand.

The U.S. inflation print is a potential short-term market driver. Given the high sensitivity to real rates, even a neutral U.S. report can keep the dollar supported. If actual price dynamics exceed consensus, demand for funding and risk assets may be capped, reinforcing pressure on the pound.

The UK policy and economic backdrop remains mixed: budget priorities and household spending face a slowing economy, while the external environment for exports is soft. Altogether this argues for a cautious view on sterling and supports a sell-on-rallies approach in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3325, SL 1.3375, TP 1.3225

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 27, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY holds near multi-week highs thanks to the yield differential and a cautious tone among investors before the FOMC meeting. Elevated nominal and real US yields, alongside restrained monetary conditions in Japan, keep a positive differential in favor of the dollar and support buying interest in the pair.

On the domestic side for Japan, the market still expects very low funding costs in the near term and a gradual approach to any future changes by the Bank of Japan. Given modest domestic demand and uneven price dynamics, JGB yields remain contained, leaving the yen with few sustained drivers for appreciation.

External factors also favor the dollar: persistent inflows into US instruments amid global uncertainty underpin the trend. Proximity to areas that may trigger comments from Japanese authorities calls for careful risk management, but fundamentally there are still limited preconditions for a meaningful softening of the USD against the JPY.

Trading recommendation: BUY 152.90, SL 152.25, TP 153.90

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