Technical Templates

[Carll]

that 3850 zone contained some pretty solid bids & it took a couple days to absorb, process & finally work through the orders.
Shorting into the second lower high slip (& initial bounce off the 850 bid zone) offered the lowest risk odds play on this pair so far this week.
If you missed that opportunity, then placing a short bet as it dropped through yesterdays (tuesday & wednesday's) low still kept you on the right side of the current weeks flows.

Once again the pre-identified psychological reaction zones played their part as the weeks primary influences directed & drove the price action.

Early week saw this pair being driven by renewed concerns over sovereign debt (with the Portuguese economy coming under especially close scrutiny) & worse than expected French trade balance numbers.
Add into the mix heavy BIS selling into Monday's early European action, real money funds buying dollars & trailing stops cashing out below 1.3920...& the writing was on the wall for eur/usd trading into the years highs.

That pushed prices to that 1st highlighted 3850 defense where it encountered those expected initial bids.

It held up for a couple days (1&2 on the chart) before succumbing to Spanish credit downgrade & elevated risk aversion influenced by weak Chinese & American economic output.
That triggered the next leg down on Thursday, but not before offering a low risk pullback entry (3 on the chart) to that previously highlighted 3850 level that flipped from support to local resistance.

Prices then probed for next level demand (bids) highlighted on last Saturdays chart example @ the 1.3710-50 zone which included last weeks low print (4 on the chart).


As is the norm for Fridays (& especially given the catastrophic events in Japan) profit taking, trailing profit stops getting tripped & book squaring was the main order of the day.

Strong expected bids (mainly from U.S Custodials & Mid-East sovereigns) mixed in with short covering by aggressive speculative firms, offered a pretty consistently identifiable exit down at that secondary pre-identified bid zone with inside bars & clear rejection activity (red square on the chart).

For the price pattern enthusiasts amongst you, a 1-2-3 reversal away from a key s&r zone trumpeted the start of the New York session & that impressive move back up the ladder, where if you look left on your chart, it came to a halt into Fridays close at a prior area of supply from Thursday's Tokyo activity.

[jack mason]

from 2 March
If they can find a way through that topside defense at last weeks highs they should locate sufficient order flow to take a shot at the 3950-80 zone.

I got a little more potential supply marked off 100 pips further up & nothing much more in the way until 1.42
It's not taking too much effort for the bulls to run prices.

We did indeed get that textbook supply (4050) to demand (3850-3750) move & then the corresponding dip buying exercise up to this next stage supply around the 1.42 figure.


Those lower demand zones offered up one or two typically consistent entry set ups, including that old favorite the 1-2-3 as it backed away from 1.3750 on the 11th.


Further upside away from this 1.42 supply level will in some part be heavily influenced by how the Dollar Index gets played off this 75.60 support from last November. If it loses this defense the 2009 lows at 74.20 will loom large.
That will bring the 1.44 figure into view on eur/usd .

Buying the dips continues to remain the higher odds play!

[whipcrack]

from March 23

Further upside will in some part be heavily influenced by how the Dollar Index gets played off this 75.60 support from last November. If it loses this defense the 2009 lows at 74.20 will loom large.

That will bring the 1.44 figure into view on eur/usd .
Buying the dips continues to remain the higher odds play!

Correct again young sir!

Writing was on the wall really wasn't it when it failed to mount a determined effort to scale beyond that 76.50 ceiling.
A case of picking your spot (excuse the pun) & loading up your euro long bullets!...

Didn't quite get clobbered back to 74.20 but in the end it didn't matter....


....you got an extra helping of pie as it gunned through 1.44 to print fresh yearly highs.


I assume you've picked it up again on the dip back to your aforementioned defensive (prior supply) floor at 1.42?

[jack mason]

Writing was on the wall really wasn't it when it failed to mount a determined effort to scale beyond that 76.50 ceiling.
A case of picking your spot (excuse the pun) & loading up your euro long bullets!...

It was yes. There has been no technical or fundamental reason to swap hats yet & go long Dollars, so simply a case of continuing to go with the dominant flow & leg into dips.

I assume you've picked it up again on the dip back to your aforementioned defensive (prior supply) floor at 1.42?

I actually waited until Tuesday's U.S session before getting back in (long off the 1.43 pullback). I figured allowing the dust to settle on the S&P ratings outlook & a return (on the currencies anyway) to more acceptable risk appetite would be a good idea before stepping in again this week.

I turned attention to Gold & Silver instead.
Bargains to be had there as most of the risk cash got transferred across there (as is usually the case when risk aversion picks up). Added incentive on the Gold bet being that prices managed to hold that key 1470-75 support shoulder & silver maintained a steady line beyond the s&r zone at 42.0

[shona123]

For those (shy) observers viewing the material here it's fine to ask a question on the thread. You don't have to send private messages - we don’t bite!!

The question asked was in relation to risk appetite & how to bet oil when the risk on/risk off flavor gets tossed around on a pretty regular basis.

Well, it's no different to betting any of the other risk candidates.
Factor in the current price drivers & dominant influences that the market is keying into & simply equate it to the technical positioning of the instrument you're seeking to trade.

You'll get a feel for the bias by scrolling out at least a couple months worth of data. If the risk is being bought you'll see the Dollar getting sold off, Gold, Silver, Oil, Equities & EURUSD + it's buddy (risk) crosses catching a bid across the board.

Open up your oil charts & you want to see clear bullish peak-trough behavior on your larger timeframe charts, reflecting the positive bias & flows.
As you drill down into your smaller timeframe(s) of choice, simply key into reliable levels & zones that the big market players observe such as: prior session highs & lows, prior weekly highs & lows, key fulcrum levels, big figures/round numbers, the big moving average numbers etc…

If you can also match up these levels & zones with very common psychological price bar behavior signals on the smaller timeframes (such as doji's/spinning tops/inside bars/hammers etc) it will offer you clues as to the current appetite of the herd at important junctures, especially if they appear at zones such as higher lows in uptrends & lower highs in downtrends (buying dips & selling rallies in the direction of the current flows).

So if we relate your specific query to the current days example in oil you can see how that type of analysis can offer you low risk, potentially high reward betting odds.

I didn't trade this set up, but one of the guys in the office (who doesn't post on forums) did.

He's compounding a core position (long oil) off the 1st higher low pop through 95.0
So basically he's looking for continued signs of strength from the flows before comitting fresh bets.

As long as prices are maintaining a bullish footprint he'll buy the bets that get cashed on profit taking & pyramid up until the flows & positive risk roll over.

Here's a typical print of what you need to see on your 1-3 month outlook to offer confidence in laying down long bets.


You can then look out for those psychological signals on your intraday frames....in this case a spinning top (circled) which signals hesitancy & neutrality forming at a pullback underneath a local resistance level that also marries up with a round number (110.0).

It also adds substance to the continuation move up by kicking off right into the busy flows of the NY morning trade.

So by combining multi-timeframe analysis with rudimentary fundamental influences you can assist in strengthening your decision making by elevating the odds a little more in your favor.

[Ray_1]

I do not know do anyone keep track of Gold and Silver. I managed to enter a position on Monday at 42.59 off the M5, during the early NY session. In addition, SIlver had move down and seem to hit its daily ATR for the London session. So I entered Long. I am still holding onto the position and want to compound on my existing position. But Silver seem to move up without any pullbacks and there are no more resistances for Silver except those round numbers. Same theory also applies for the Gold chart.

[Ray_1]

Trading Plan for Silver in the upcoming week, from Tuesday onwards:

Silver is in a bullish trend, it ended the week with a high which is not seen in the recent years. There are also no resistance I can find on my chart. My bias will still be looking for longs by waiting for the pullback. The ideal plan is to wait for Silver to pullback to round numbers like 46.00 to 45.00 to enter. If Silver closes below 45.00, I will stand aside to evaluate if the upside movement is stalling. To engage in a short now as it is too risky to go against the strong bull.

[Ray_1]

Silver and Gold is bullish during the Asian session. Both broke above Previous week high. Gold make a pullback to Previous Week high. I missed it. But it is risky to open a new position when Europe is not trading. Silver reached as high as close to 50. I believe it is a new high which has not been seen before.

[jack mason]

Trading Plan for Silver from Tuesday onwards:

Silver is in a bullish trend, it ended the week with a high which is not seen in the recent years.
My bias will still be looking for longs by waiting for the pullback.

That's about the best option Ray when prices become extended, particularly into highs or lows not seen for very long periods of time, if ever.

One thing I've quickly learned from hanging out with these guys is to allow the market to show it's hand first before considering your options.
There's no hurry to climb aboard. If the flows are genuine then they'll be opportunities to get a position established & add to it.

Looks like you've got a decent core stake bedded in on silver. It was always going to deflate a little over the Bank Holiday weekend due to profit taking & risk paring.
The pro's don't trade over holiday periods due to excessively light volumes & liquidity. It's generally a high risk tactic & yet another piece of advice I've taken on board.

Good luck with the Gold & Silver positions. Look forward to your continued input on the thread.

[Ray_1]

Gold and silver are dropping, I am still waiting on the sidelines for my trigger to go long. It may not appear this week as price seems to be retracing from the new high. But my overall bias in gold and silver are still long.