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[jcpfx]

EURUSD has been moving up (slowly). Not the best candidate in terms of daily range or trending ability but here goes.

1H chart below. For me its a long only (buy stop) from 13610 based on the most recent 1 hour momentum high as a trigger.

Hey BigDog,

EurUsd has been a pain in the neck recently. I only played it long on the 25th after the bounce at 3490s and before that, a scratch short off 3450 on the 21st. There are trendier things out there still, like the jpy pairs or the EurAud/GbpAud couple. I'm actually observing price action around last week's high/102.50s for an entry on this recent pullback today on UsdJpy.

I scratched an entry today on EurAud after it failed to rally after the pullback to 4880s and AudUsd is just a nuissance, and i scratched an entry on that thing too today after it failed to make downwards progress after pulling back to yesterday's low/9090.

Jpy positions on COT are getting extended so traders are probably on the edge of their seats when playing longs now...i know i am!

[bigdog]

Hey JCPFX, agree EURUSD has been a pain as I got stopped out on that last trade example. A better decision would have been to keep my powder dry as price was very close to the previous weeks high.

I know its not trending well but am keen to highlight the primary/secondary timeframe approach I am taking to stay on the right side of the fence.

Primary 4H example shown below. The green vertical lines show the start of each trading day. The current 4H cycle was broken when price closed below point 1 shown below.

Its now time to wait. If price closes above the 13620 area (making a Higher High) then I am looking long again. If price fails and closes below 13520 - 13500 area then I am looking for shorts. Keeping in mind the location of the previous weeks low.

I know those with a keen eye can quickly assess that its not trending well at all and will skip to the next pair.

[jcpfx]

Evening all,

wanted to share my view on GbpCad and GbpUsd and search for a second opinion.

1. GbpUsd todayretraced back to the current week's lows (potentially reactive level). No sub-hourly trigger was possible due to this action. But price DID react and find buyers at the level, which was re-tested during the news this afternoon. At this point, I was waiting for price to show me it's intent that it was directed back higher in line with the general bias. What caught my attention was the contraction with lower highs and higher lows during hte afternoon and then the break and potential long opportunity. Would this have been the type of intent necessary to justify a "high odds play" given the objective to roll over the trade and target 6450 or higher up?



2. GbpCad started off well this week. It continued upwards, retraced monday afternoon and vibrated 7380s finding support. It held it's ground into tuesday and i played a sub-hourly pullback around 7420 riding it up to new highs. Given the sub-hourly trigger I managed the trade as a day trade. Today I did the same thing before london but scratched the bet @ BE. Not surprized as there was big data out. And after the data, price dipped almost to yesterday's low and ultimately demonstrated some bullish action with a big 1H engulfing. I took this as enough intent to enter at the 50% pullback of that candle and got in at 7455 considering this a rollover bet and my stop is now in par. Am I evaluating the intent with enough patience and discipline at this point or am i still jumping the gun in your opinion?



Thanks and good luck!

[speedbump]

wanted to share my view on GbpCad and GbpUsd and search for a second opinion.
GbpUsd....Would this have been the type of intent necessary to justify a "high odds play" given the objective to roll over the trade and target 6450 or higher up?

Not for me because so far this week it's failed to climb back & close above Monday's highs, dropped & closed as a lower low on the hourlies (clarity via the 4 hour) & is not surprisingly easing off as traders book more profits ahead of the main volatility events of the week (tomorrows MPC & Friday's NFP).

I would want to see more bullish activity (at least a higher close beyond Tuesday's highs) before re-engaging this pair, but that's just my view....as always, yours & anyone else's risk & objectives will be very different.

Sterling/Cad is a different technical (& fundamental) animal altogether at current levels & in my view, a more justifiable proposition when considering buying dips.
If I were tracking an entry on either of those pairs today GBPCAD would get the nod due to the more positively established trending behaviour (see the 4 hour chart comparison) in maintaining it's cyclical structure into today's action.

[jcpfx]

Thanks for the view speedbump. Good luck today!

[jcpfx]

Dear High Probability coin flippers,

as you all know, I'm the guy having probably the most difficulty keeping thinks orderly and simple. However, after much practice and learning to simplify stuff, i've come down to what seems to be the basic "rules" of this discretionary approach. Allow me to explain my observations:

Case A: 4H trend clearly up/down > Prior day's Low/Priod day's high intact > permission to buy on a hourly pullback/sell on a hourly pullback if price is retracing off Tokyo OR look for a sub-hourly entry in line with trend if Tokyo action is supportive.

Case B: 4H trend clearly up/down > PDH/PDL violated > no permission to enter, because a clear momo point has been violated in the opposite direction. Must wait until things click back into gear.

Case C: 4H trend not clear > do not interact with the market if using this approach.

Hope this "low fat" version summs up the main structural features of what we're looking for...

In other news, today was an eventful monday for Gbp and Jpy pairs...but something else popped up on my radar as well: NzdUsd at 8260 this afternoon. It gave a 1H hook off 8260 (evident prior resistance and prior week high) so i'm currently long on this at 8275 with a stop at 8250.

[Gator]

Hi Jcpfx, thanks for putting it all in a few concise points. I haven't had time yet to go through the whole thread in depth so that will give me some points to keep in mind when I do, hopefully over the low liquidity holiday season.

[jcpfx]

Hey Gator,

that's only my personal rationalization of the method. One thing I CAN say is that I rushed through the material, due to my personal situation, and missed some key elements of this method. Read through the thread and see on your charts where the past trade examples were done by these guys. And then remember that is't a combination of trend + momentum. On rare occasions, there are counter-trend momentum moves. Focus on momentum high/Lows; focus on the main trend and the fundamental/sentiment drivers behind it; focus on evident stair-stepping motion.

Anthing non-evident is low-probability.

Good luck to you!

[grantyboy]

Only started looking for trades around midweek and despite there appearing to be a couple of good setups, the market seems to be flopping around all over the place. Thankfully despite an early loss at normal lot size, I've been placing very small positions so no real harm done. Think I'll step aside until mid next week and see what's happening then.

[hawkmoon]

That's probably a wise decision grantyboy considering this week has included quite a lot of key (potential) volatility data prints. Even the options market is quiet, which confirms most of the usually large capped players are still only dipping their toes back into the market after the Xmas break.

There are bits & pieces of trend continuation business still being done that were highlighted on here during the last business quarter such as USDCAD, GBPCAD, GBPJPY & GBPAUD but most of the majors are getting kicked around back & forth making it more difficult to gauge the value for intra-day bets.

The mist should clear once volumes get back to normal capacity & one or two of these established trend pairings continue to grind onwards.

As the guys have often advised....always try & make your job that much easier by participating in the cleaner looking candidates!