Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Visual, Goldtop, Kipper,

thank you for the continuous input.

I'll be stepping back now, and will work a little more in depth with my fiancèe until I can get my head around the background/strategy structure.

Good luck to you all in the meantime

[xerb]

Case in point today on Cable.
Of the 3 pairs mentioned Cable displayed by far the clearer background set up.
If so, then ditch the other 2 & simply open up your sub hourlies taking the hook triggers (or whatever alternative trigger you prefer to utilize) at the bottom of the turn, trading long with the current trend.

It's obliging right on cue again this morning as London fires up.
Trend/bias clearly still to the long side, therefore only long entries are to be considered & 5 minute hook set ups have offered 2 low risk/high prob triggers during the first hours worth of activity into early session flows.

Same deal on eur/usd (which is biased to the upside).
Even if the entries fail to kick on the object of the exercise is to place yourself on the right side of the current flows.
The odds are better & so too are the success rates.

[jcpfx]

True Xerb,

I did play GbpUsd today, taking both the pre-data hook through 6240 (cashed at 6250 as managing on 5min) and the post-data at the same level, cashing out at 6247). Seeing how the Euro has reacted I was not convinced that Cable had a lot more upside today. Also, on the data, the main retracement zone (6180/6200) was front run in my view, and if it gets back down there i think that the odds are for a non-support in the short term.

Also, the Euro has put in a 4h pin, spiking out of recent highs and that has blocked me from taking sub-hourly long bets on the retracement to 3550. I might very well be proven wrong, because the trend is evidently pointing upwards, but short term I think there's a possibility that we retrace to the bottom of the range once more before pushing towards the yearly highs (if we do indeed continue on this line of least resistance). So i'm currently staying put on the Euro and I missed the early morning boost.

I would really like to hop onto the AudUsd if it retaces back to 9360...

In parallel, I would also fancy a short on th EurAud which is currently printing a daily bearish engulfing and a pullback short at 4460 looks good to me.

Is all that "evidently clear" or is there something that's still complicated here?

Thanks & nice shot on the Euro..I still have trouble getting in on those pre-breakout trades so a tip of the hat to you

[xerb]

I would also fancy a short on the EurAud which is currently printing a daily bearish engulfing and a pullback short at 4460 looks good to me.
Is all that "evidently clear" or is there something that's still complicated here?

That pair isn't on my radar yet. It's been printing higher lows on the 240m since mid September & is only now retreating from last week's highs so it's not particularly exhibiting the type of action that will get me all hot & bothered for the moment.

The only pair outside of the 3 you've mentioned recently on my hot list is gbp/cad.
Stick a Daily & 240m comparison chart side-by-side with your eur/aud & tell me which one closely resembles the type of background set up over the past few weeks this model would best represent.

[jcpfx]

Agree, good spotting it!

I agree that EurAud is not yet trending back down, only "moving" back. It's currently extended it's daily range into a prior support so i'll bet the short term players will try to ride it back to the 4460 level, from which shorts "may" try to re-ingage.

[xerb]

Agree, good spotting it!

I'm rather surprised you haven't had it on your watch & execution list for the past few weeks too?!

I agree that EurAud is not yet trending back down, only "moving" back.
i'll bet the short term players will try to ride it back to the 4460 level, from which shorts "may" try to re-ingage.

Well that maybe so Justin, but whether they do or whether they don't is irrelevant because that pair shouldn't yet even be on your radar as a possible high probability candidate if you're trading this type of combination approach.

It's not yet exhibiting the type of background behavior that should warrant your attention, which might in some small way explain why you're struggling to gain any traction trading this model.
If anything you should have been focusing your attention on gbp/cad & legging into smoother pullback moves, given the cleaner structural activity.

[jcpfx]

I'm rather surprised you haven't had it on your watch & execution list for the past few weeks too?!

There are a couple of reasons for that...

1. Not being at ease with my approach to the markets
2. Having a broker that will only allow 20 pairs to be "fed" into the graphical interface at any one time.
So of course I have the majors + gbpjpy + Dax + ES + Gold + Crude and that leaves space for only a few other pairs. So I have to go to netdania.com and see their charts and then enable the trending pairs on my platform. Not too much of a hassle, but the big mental block is #1 that keeps me from being as efficient as I could be.

So we have the Euro backing off from recent highs, probably on profit taking pre-Draghi. UsdChd is a mirror image, finding bids defending last week's lows and pushing it back towards 9080s. Now, as delightful as that 4H pin at the bottom of today's UsdChf chart looks, I understand that short term players betting long have a skewed negative risk reward ratio as the evident resistance on any long attempts IS 9080 while the stop would have to be 8990 so it's not worth it. I will be, however, expecting a higher low tomorrow and if we get it I will throw out a line into any attempt to break out of this downtrend. Same goes for Euro in reverse. It's early days yet, but as you & my fiancèe have been saying for a while "I have to work on my background story & planning".

GbpUsd is also forming a daily pin and that will probably influence my bias going into tomorrow if we close below 1.6200/yesterday's high. We may be in for a short term pause in the trend, with short term targets of 1.6150/last week's high and 1.5950/last week's low (if price does not rotate back into trend any sooner).

I'm still counting on AudUsd to deliver and am waiting for it back at 9350. There's some data overnight so maybe we'll wake up tomorrow with a good setup. First target long is obviously last week's high/9450 and given the current structure, stops would have to be hidden sub-9300s.

As far as GbpCad goes (yes I can play it, it has a typical 3.5 pip sprea on FXCM so it's not too expensive) all I see right now is space all the way to 6800/6950/7270 if this trend persists. On te hourly we're in compression mode so I'd personally like to see a bounce to 6800 and a retrace around 6770 to get on board (if conditions set up) but i fear that if we break below these recent lows then we'll have to see if price rotates off 6600 before shooting back up. 6500/50 zone is the main fulcrum holding up this daily action in my view so that's the less probable/worst scenario level i'd look to for continued upside.

Does this look more or less like your planning Xerb? Please let me know if i haven't covered all bases...

Does anyone follow the Bund?

Thanks guys

[xerb]

You're covering too many bases on too many pairs & this quote sums it up perfectly.

My read on it is.....you think too much
& the only filter you really need is to work harder at sorting the primary/background wheat from the chaff.

All through the thread, especially the last couple of years, the guys have continually suggested that new traders simplify as much as possible their current priority or execution levels & the most immediate levels that would compromise or negate the current trend/bias.
That dual aim helps maintain clarity & aids the decision making process.

Once you've identified & prioritized the strongest 1, 2 or maximum of 3 pairs you're interested in trading, you then only need to highlight the levels that will compromise the current trend via your primary timeframe of choice & then wait for a trigger set up to get you aboard or compound an existing stake.

That's it.

So if you're zoning in on gbp/cad via the 240m timeframe, the level that would get you flat & temporarily side lined would be 1.66
Anything above there & you either remain long existing stakes or you get long on a fresh trigger.

The same deal on gbp/usd would be 1.6120
Existing longs remain live above there....flat & side lined on a close below until more information is available to either leg back in on a resumption of the existing trend or discard the pair & go in search of the next established cycle.
Any fresh potential entries that flash up above that level can be triggered in line with the usual model criteria.

And it's a similar regime for the next strongest candidate.
You don't need any more in-depth analysis than that, especially if you're struggling to cut out your groove.
But we've been down this road several times before Justin. You seem like you're getting a grip on it & then a week or two later we're revisiting the same ground again.

If there isn't anything out there exhibiting or highlighting the required background criteria of a strongly trending cycle on your primary timeframe then you DO NOTHING!
You don't go looking for set ups, you don't waste your time immersing yourself into pointless analysis on half baked candidates......you simply stand aside until something clicks back into trend mode on your primary timeframe of choice.

That might take a few days, it might take a week & it occasionally might stretch out to a couple of weeks, but unless you can get a grip on your discipline & sit on your hands until the high probability candidates show up you'll do what every other impatient, ill-disciplined punter out there does & eventually slow bleed to death.

[shona123]

If I were you I'd take your own advice jcp & do what you mentioned in one of your recent posts.

I'll be stepping back now, and will work a little more in depth with my fiancèe until I can get my head around the background/strategy structure.

It seems from some of your previous comments that she has a pretty good read on your preparation & ongoing analysis routine, so perhaps you might be able to shake some of this confusing structural & background prioritization out between you.

Your achilles heel at the momemnt is definitely the primary/background identification & prioritization step.
The only 2 major pairs I've had on my front burner recently have been GBP/USD & GBP/CAD.
If you've been using the futures charts as part of your pre-scan analysis you would know that Sterling is by far & away the strongest performer on Daily & large hourly charts.
So you shouldn't really need to look outside that currency for a high probability match up.

Take a step back, liase with your partner & try to work out a very basic, simple routine to establish a regular pattern of priority identification & then stick to xerb's advice about only focusing your attention on maybe 2 pairs maximum until you become very throughly versed in setting out your templates so you can perform the tasks with your eyes shut.

You're running around like a mad thing trying to cram everything in & not really making any headway.
Take a breather!

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

my eyes are set on a sub-hourly entry on EurUsd in line with the trend, triggered at 1.3605 just now. Stop is set below the o/n low and I will bring the stop to b/e if we touch the o/n highs.

I also like $AudUsd and have a continuation long order at the o/n high. Yesterday was an inside day with highs not too far from the last night's overnight high so i'm thinking that sneaking an order in before the actual break might be interesting.

I was wondering if anyone has their eyes on $CadJpy yet. This 94,60 level looked like a good level for shorting in line with the trend to me.

Thanks & good luck.