Technical Templates

[zilly]

EurAud is currently at a retracement level that goes from 4300 to 4350s and has started to stall.
A 1H 1-2-3 would look good off 1.4373.

Well that diddn't take long to wash out -_- Not the best start to the week

I don't see an hourly 1-2-3 trigger on my charts this morning jcp.
For me there's really not much enthusiasm out there at all today to inspire any kind of entry into anything.
Although I share your outlook on a couple of those pairs I want to see some determined activity to re-engage trend mode before getting involved.

A lot of pairs are still slopping around deciding which way to run & that type of activity won't draw me into the fray yet.

[jcpfx]

I don't see an hourly 1-2-3 trigger on my charts this morning jcp.
For me there's really not much enthusiasm out there at all today to inspire any kind of entry into anything.
Although I share your outlook on a couple of those pairs I want to see some determined activity to re-engage trend mode before getting involved.

A lot of pairs are still slopping around deciding which way to run & that type of activity won't draw me into the fray yet.

Hey Zilly,

the market has definitely proven you right, and has shown me that i've read it wrong. Here is the chart that lead into my decision this morning:



So I guess it wasn't a good 1-2-3 or simply it wasn't a good strategy to fight the big downwards momentum candles that have bounced from 1.4450s (evident daily sup/res)...

[zilly]

the market has definitely proven you right, and has shown me that i've read it wrong.
So I guess it wasn't a good 1-2-3 or simply it wasn't a good strategy to fight the big downwards momentum candles that have bounced from 1.4450s (evident daily sup/res)...

Yeah I think that was pushing the envelope somewhat describing that as a potential 1-2-3 continuation set up.
To offer any likely degree of a successful continuation (as a bare minimum) I'd want to see that pattern attempting to gain a foothold after a push up in bullish momentum, not developing within the boundaries of a consolidation phase following a drop in bearish flow, which is where you were attempting to execute it from earlier.
Patience is most definitely a virtue in current conditions such as these!

Have another recap on how the guys have presented that type of trigger.
You'll see that they always advise a continuation set up be executed with momentum on their side.
Anything other than that & it's simply nothing but very low probability opportunity.

[jcpfx]

I think i've gone out of bounds once more, linking into low probability trades. I got my head handed to me overnight on GbpJpy after a great 4H pin that was broken to the upside on my feed by a couple of pips (triggering my long trade) but then during the asian shift broke to the downside by a handful of pips (triggering my stop).

The pair showed me it's intent...but failed to pursue it's course. I already know what Strobe may be ready to say

But may I ask for a clarification of two other trades taken in 2012 with the same style?

1. Xerb's short AudUsd on page 48
2. Se7en's EurUsd short at the top of page 58

My GbpJpy trade, to my naive eyes, looked the same...4h+1h hooks off an evident prior resistance level...

[xerb]

I don't really know what to say jcp.
It's already been mentioned that apart from the very odd data spike there's nothing going on out there at the moment & most of the pairs are transitioning between cycles.

There’s no one-way directional momentum driving the technicals. Apparently even the currency options volumes are well below average compared to this period last quarter & year-on-year. If those guys aren't laying any money down then things must be bad.

Thread viewers & participants have been made aware that the current scenario isn't suitable to this type of model.
If you want more action jcp then you're going to have to employ an additional strategy to accommodate that goal, because trying to force a square peg into a round hole will only serve to frustrate your objectives further.

But may I ask for a clarification of two other trades taken in 2012 with the same style?
Xerb's short AudUsd on page 48
Se7en's EurUsd short at the top of page 58
My GbpJpy trade, to my naive eyes, looked the same...4h+1h hooks off an evident prior resistance level

You can't realistically compare technical set ups from one period to another purely because there will be very different fundamental & sentiment influences impacting those differing technical set ups.

It's only my opinion but I fear that once again you're becoming impatient (with this approach) & forcing your will on the market. You're in too much of a hurry to get involved by exchanging quantity at the expense of quality.
And we've been down that road before on here.

[strobe]

I think i've gone out of bounds once more, linking into low probability trades.
I already know what Strobe may be ready to say

and what might that be Justin?

The only (& toughest) way anyone is going to fully appreciate the virtue of patience & discipline is by viewing the balance of their trading account on a daily basis.
That's how I learnt to very quickly distinguish the difference between executing a high from a low probability opportunity.
But I do concur with xerb's suggestion that if you or anyone else is adamant about upping their activity levels it might require them to utilize an additional approach/strategy to the one being presented here.

It's certainly not a man for all seasons.
There are very clear conditions when it offers higher potential odds of success & the current climate isn't one of them.

[jcpfx]

Hello to everyone,

today i'd like to ask for some guidance on a couple of issues that keep haunting me.

You see, i've been actively trading the FX markets for 2 years now and between my own prior experiences + Tech Templates over on Babypips + this thread, I'm really "saturated" with information.

So when the "theory" is all there, but the execution and results are just not acceptable, where may the problem lie? Before throwing in the towel and admitting that this job may not be suitable for me, what's left to consider?

Allow me to elaborate on this thought...and show you what goes through the mind of a confused coin flipper...

1. UsdJpy today. We gap overnight, find bids that push it back through 79.80 (important level I had up on screen) and price prints a Higher low (HL) on the 1H chart, then a Higher high (HH) just a touch from 98.10/last week's low print + evident order imbalance level. So, on one hand i'd like to short the thing off an important level. On the other hand, the higher lows on the hourly are keeping me on guard. Price then prints a higher low and lower high on the hourly, and breaks 97.70s all the way to the o/n lows. I then say to myself, ok so the hourly is back in line with the main bias (to the downside) so I can look for a sub-hourly pullback trigger now. However, we have gone back above 97.80 and a short just doesn't look good anymore.

So I get the bias right but I've been unable to trigger this morning. What the heck is wrong here?

2. AudUsd today. Bias had be short into this week, after a nice close at the bottom of last week's range. We came into an important level overnight at 9280s and price rotated forming higher lows. I hesitated in taking the trade after 12.00 CET off the evident 9340 flip because of the 1H structure leading up there. I have a feeder stake in long upon the 5 min momentum push beyond the level, giving no regard whatsoever to time of day or range covered. My primary objective here would be 9370-80 and maybe 9400 if this rotation is in fact a bias change.

But here's the thing: my read on the Jpy was a lot clearer than this AudUsd. And yet here i am in AudUsd instead of Jpy...

3. GbpUsd today. Bias is obviously "long". Overnight price vibrates the 1.6170s level that I had up on my chart and comes back down to test last week's high/current flip in the 6110/30/50 zone. The first time price pulls back this morning, the 5min/15min action kept me out of the market. I just diddn't get any excuse to execute. And after price travelled 30 pips from my level, I feel like an idiot. Seriously! Then price makes a 1H lower high and I start to think "ah! that's why price was so insipid...it's actually rotating from the important zone and is going to change trend. So then price vibrates my zone again, and even if there was an evident 1-2-3 on the 5Min chart this time round, I let it go. Then price makes a higher high, and comes back to test the zone again, with more momentum. So with total disregard for time of day, I decide to execute off the 1-2-3 from 6160, totally ignoring time of day.

Why am I in these trades at the moment? Just because my read of the market told me so. Why am I upset? Because I would have gladly made more pips off of cable & usdjpy today given the fact that I had done all the correct planning.

Why am I bothered? Because my thought process "seems" to detailed and my fiancèe, who has been right so many times before, keeps telling me that my overanalysis gets me into trouble. So that's one thing I'd like you to take a look at.

The second thing is...I have a feeling that there are much simpler considerations that would trump all the above analysis. But from staring at the screen so long, I may have developed too much of sensitivity towards the high/low cycles. I'd like your read on that too.

And last, but not least, I understand that there is no "one system fits all environments". Fine with me. If I had some modest results using even one system, I'd have no trouble taking time off until the market clicks back in order. I'd love it...if only I knew what the requirements were for this to work!

Between this thread and the original Tech Templates, it seems that the sup/res + bias way of trading is always able to read the market and in fact I always see possible trades. There must be some way to "Filter" out green light conditions from red light conditions. I would think that average true range compression/extension is one of them, but I don't know...there's something I just don't get. I would understand that volumes are important but I don't have the possibility to tap into that kind of info. I might be able to see the futures volumes on the CME but I don't think it's a viable alernative. And if the answer to these questions has already been covered somewhere on the thread then forgive me for letting it slip by me.

Thank you, and good luck.

[visualxray]

It seems to me like you're back focusing on below par background criteria for a kick off & that in turn is causing you to stress out on the conflicting foreground mess.
Compare the 4 hourly USDJPY chart with the 4 hour GBPUSD & the 4 hour AUDUSD chart (& then subsequently the 1 hour swing cycles) & decide which one is offering the likelier higher probability entry & forward potential set ups.

You only need one pair (at a time) to offer a potentially higher probability set up, or a series of higher prob set ups in order to make money.

I wouldn't personally touch USDJPY at the moment with your money let alone mine. It's chopping all over the joint on the 4 hour chart making entry decisions more difficult than they really ought to be.
GBPUSD is several levels ahead of every other major out there at the moment, & of the 3 pairs mentioned in your post, based on the simple background criteria of this model, so if that's the case why not simply focus on taking the sub hourly hook opportunities that pair offers by trading in sync with the trend.

[goldtop]

So when the "theory" is all there, but the execution and results are just not acceptable, where may the problem lie?

It's nigh on impossible to pin point where (if at all) the problem lies because no-one knows enough about you personally or your aptitude for this type of work.

Why am I bothered? Because my thought process "seems" to detailed and my fiancèe, who has been right so many times before, keeps telling me that my overanalysis gets me into trouble.

From what I've seen of your post history on here jcp I would agree with that observation wholeheartedly.
You appear to regularly over complicate the basics & concentrate on the wrong types of primary candidates.
If you get off on the wrong foot with the initial groundwork then it stands to reason you're going to tie yourself up in knots for the remainder of the day/week.

As visualxray observed, in most instances your 1st base identification process is out of whack.
Others have also regularly tried to steer your thought & decision process away from choppy, indecisive background candidates in favor of waiting until a pair or pairs begin establishing more pronounced trending type behavior on the hourly charts (or whichever primary template you prefer to observe it from) & then begin the foreground entry process of taking entries with the dominant bias.

Case in point today on Cable.
Again I agree totally with visualxray. Of the 3 pairs mentioned Cable displayed by far the clearer background set up.
If so, then ditch the other 2 & simply open up your sub hourlies taking the hook triggers (or whatever alternative trigger you prefer to utilize) at the bottom of the turn, trading long with the current trend.

[kipper]

GbpUsd today. Bias is obviously "long".

That's the most "obvious" comment in your whole post
And I'm now the third person who has mentioned the "obvious"
I think there's a pattern there don't you?

I have a feeling that there are much simpler considerations that would trump all the above analysis. But from staring at the screen so long, I may have developed too much of sensitivity towards the high/low cycles. I'd like your read on that too.

My read on it is.....you think too much & you're trying to apply everything you've read all at the same time instead of picking out that which makes the most sense to you & running with it.

Between this thread and the original Tech Templates, it seems that the sup/res + bias way of trading is always able to read the market and in fact I always see possible trades.
There must be some way to "Filter" out green light conditions from red light conditions.

The only filter you really need is to work harder at sorting the primary/background wheat from the chaff.
That's where you're tripping yourself up the majority of the time.