Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 30th September 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Following the move that formed the higher high on the 19th September EURUSD has traded within a 110 pip range. As the price action has a positive swing bias we are monitoring if the move down to the 8 period moving averages value area will act as a trigger zone for longs to add positions prior to a move to the previous swing high. However for this to happen we would like to see EURUSD close and trade above this morning’s downside opening gap.
As posted previously further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. We are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 30th September 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
GBPUSD as predicted the 8 period moving averages gave support. This morning GBPUSD has traded above the 18th September high.
A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous.
However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.
Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 30th September 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
On Friday morning it was identified that USDCHF had traded up to our first value area being the 8 period moving averages which was a potential shorting zone. This scenario played out at USDCHF traded down to the 0.9020 support area where buyers came into the market.
To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 30th September 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
This morning USDJPY opens with a downside gap and is trading at an intersection of the broken converging triangle. Although the swing bias remains positive this morning’s gap and the Fibonacci resistance area could potentially be a catalyst for downside pressure. However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. A breach of the prior swing high will confirm the uptrend where as a breach of the prior swing low will change the daily trend to negative.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 30th September 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Gold continues to trade in the Fibonacci support area. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages.
The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level.
In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively.
We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 30th September 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
This morning Oil opened with a downside gap and a breach of trend line support. This move happen following a rejection of the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.