Technical Templates

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Re: Patiently Patient!

Postby 2Taps » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:32 pm

jcpfx wrote:Hey there 2Taps,
Would you grant us less experienced guys the pleasure of some charts and/or details of the 3 recent entries of yours? 8)

You're giving me way more credit than you think & I deserve jcp :)
I'm still a relative novice compared to the experienced guys who contribute the more hard core material.

If you dial back to my 1st post on the forum you'll see how my personal journey has evolved.
The one smart thing I've done since adopting this approach is to scale back my day trading pursuits in favour of a more medium-long term view.

As I didn't post up my entries & add-ins when I executed them I'm not going to reveal hindsight info, that's not really helpful or very clever. But suffice to say, the macro & micro work I conduct is no different to the usual delivery process & is certainly in line with the structural approach shared consistently on the thread, it's just my entry & risk level parameters will be a bit wider & less time sensitive than someone operating a day trading model.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:44 am

2Taps wrote:You're giving me way more credit than you think & I deserve jcp :)
I'm still a relative novice compared to the experienced guys who contribute the more hard core material.

If you dial back to my 1st post on the forum you'll see how my personal journey has evolved.
The one smart thing I've done since adopting this approach is to scale back my day trading pursuits in favour of a more medium-long term view.

As I didn't post up my entries & add-ins when I executed them I'm not going to reveal hindsight info, that's not really helpful or very clever. But suffice to say, the macro & micro work I conduct is no different to the usual delivery process & is certainly in line with the structural approach shared consistently on the thread, it's just my entry & risk level parameters will be a bit wider & less time sensitive than someone operating a day trading model.


If there's something that the guys on here do continuously (and that I personally don't see much in common day life) it's encourage, cheer and support new traders & more experienced traders that are showing continuous progress. Since it's rare in my experience, i want to continue the good habit they started! 8)

I understand that hindsight is 20/20 and i understand that not everyone has as much fun posting charts up on the forum, because we're all different. To me personally, seeing other's charts has allowed me to progress faster, first through emulation and then through accurate studying of the decision making process, location and situation.

Regarding the slightly longer-term view, I too am trying to filter out my trades more and step into the 4H trend and sometimes the daily trend but it's still work in progress.
Take GbpJpy on September 6th. It had retraced to a pre-identified level from the daily chart at 154.50/70 and I had been waiting for the trade a while. I stalked it all the way to the zone...but once in the zone - being a daily setup - I was puzzled on what to wait for before entering. The best traders in the world need only a quote board to trade...so I was waiting for at least 154.70 to be printed and after that I was just waiting for the entry. But then I started wondering what to wait for. And then the time of day was wrong...and next thing you know, price rotates and leaves without me. :evil:

The same sort of thing happened with NzdUsd as illustrated above: I was waiting for a certain price to print but it simply got front run and I was left holding the hot potato.

Any thoughts on these issues of mine? Thanks! 8)
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby strobe » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:23 am

jcpfx wrote: Regarding the slightly longer-term view, I too am trying to filter out my trades more and step into the 4H trend and sometimes the daily trend but it's still work in progress.
Take GbpJpy on September 6th.
It had retraced to a pre-identified level from the daily chart at 154.50/70 and I had been waiting for the trade a while. I stalked it all the way to the zone...but once in the zone - being a daily setup - I was puzzled on what to wait for before entering.

Any thoughts on these issues of mine?

The key & important message I've taken from their input regards support & resistance confirmation is we should always be looking for the market participants to signal their intent. That intent will virtually always be revealed by the footprints price makes whenever a significant zone comes into view.

In the case of your GBPJPY example, when you tracked that pair back into your pre identified target zone the price action offered you clues of that intent by showing clear unambiguous rejection evidence via the 4 hour & corresponding sub hourly candles, especially that 4 hour long tailed bearish rejection candle.

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If you weren't comfortable enough to enter on the closure of that candle/open of the next one, but you were confident the zone was acting as you had anticipated it would, then the decision to enter would have to wait until either the next session or confirmation from your other sources that price indeed was being supported & continuing to attract bullish directional momentum.

At that stage, why not simply drop down into the 1 hour or sub hourly time frames & look out for the usual hook set ups?
If you're happy with your correct identification of the general directional flow, then surely all you require is a consistently accurate trigger to leg you into that flow?

If you scroll down to the 15 & 5 min charts during the following session they presented multiple opportunities to engage as the London market kicked off.
By all means refer to the Daily or 4 hour charts to establish a bias or primary directional flow, but you're not forced to do all your work from those timeframes. Use a combination of information to assist your decision making process as opposed to conflict or confuse.

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:05 am

Hey Strobe,

thanks for the detailed response! By looking at your charts & trigger hypothesis, a few thoughts come to mind:

1) a long time ago in this forum, I had commented on entering upon pin bars and someone said it was like trying to "guess" a bottom. Both the 4H Pin and the 15min pin really to "stand out" as ideal entry candles but that thought of "guessing a bottom" is always lurking in my mind.

2) How much relevance does time of day have when attempting to enter into these longer-term setups? I was also discouraged by the fact that the target pullback price was touched during late london. Not that I wouldn't take that trade..I would! But the "boyscout trading" taught on here is meant to keep us out of trouble and focus on higher probability plays...so I'm confused...

3) Your trigger on that 15Min pin on the 6th effectively happens before the 4H bar close that shows the intent of the mkt. Even the 1H had not bottomed out yet. I'm puzzled on the requirements that this trigger meets :? Usually the 4H/15min combo is used when the 4H hh/hl or lh/ll cycle is still in place, so you're triggering in line with the hourly's dominant bias. The GbpJpy case and the NzdUsd case are situations where we're looking at a daily pullback level and we have the hourlies cycling against the daily bias. I thought that some further confirmation of intent was required...

4) The trigger illustrated on the 9th is of course easier to play because you're legging in with the hourly dominant trend already in place...but you're getting in 100 pips higher than the pre-planned pullback level.

I remember that you were one of the first on here to use a more sedate model, so you've probably got the experience to deal with these doubts/observations :wink:

Thanks!
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby strobe » Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:40 pm

jcpfx wrote:a long time ago in this forum I had commented on entering upon pin bars and someone said it was like trying to "guess" a bottom. Both the 4H Pin and the 15min pin really to "stand out" as ideal entry candles but that thought of "guessing a bottom" is always lurking in my mind.

I never mentioned anything about entering on pin bars jcp, & certainly not on the back of that 15 minute candle.
If you carefully read my post again you'll see I was identifying & referencing the markets footprint offering clues to possible intent.
That 4 hour rejection bar printing at a pre identified zone of prior S&R would be the type of intent I would be seeking in order to prepare a potential set up/trigger entry.
jcpfx wrote:How much relevance does time of day have when attempting to enter into these longer-term setups?

For me, none. Time of day is only a key requirement when day trading.
For you or anyone else it will depend solely on the precise criteria of your objectives for your approach or for that particular trade opportunity.
jcpfx wrote:I was also discouraged by the fact that the target pullback price was touched during late london. Not that I wouldn't take that trade..I would! But the "boyscout trading" taught on here is meant to keep us out of trouble and focus on higher probability plays...so I'm confused...

Then leave it until it fits with your usual execution set up criteria.
It's been mentioned to thread viewers & participants many times before that you don't have to adhere to every detail or suggestion recommended here.
Pick that which resonates & fits comfortably with your preferred style, risk profile & objectives & discard or place less emphasis on that which doesn’t.
jcpfx wrote:Your trigger on that 15Min pin on the 6th effectively happens before the 4H bar close that shows the intent of the mkt. Even the 1H had not bottomed out yet. I'm puzzled on the requirements that this trigger meets

That's because, as we've already established, it wasn't a trigger.
It was highlighting potential intent on & around a zone of prior S&R that you had personally identified in your previous post.
jcpfx wrote:The trigger illustrated on the 9th is of course easier to play because you're legging in with the hourly dominant trend already in place...

Which is why that is the only part of my post that refers to a high probability entry option.
jcpfx wrote:...but you're getting in 100 pips higher than the pre-planned pullback level.

That maybe so, but where, how & why you enter is your decision & will be influenced & dictated based on the specific objectives laid out in your pre-trade plan.
If you're not convinced there's potential for any further movement or the risk/reward ratios appear skewed or the vicinity doesn't meet your desired criteria for entry and/or objectives then you have no option but to abort the deal & look elsewhere for the next opportunity.

I thought by now you would have put all this sort of set up & pre-entry planning to bed & have your basic structural framework established.
I'm somewhat surprised we're revisiting this well trodden path again.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Sun Sep 15, 2013 2:02 pm

strobe wrote:I never mentioned anything about entering on pin bars jcp, & certainly not on the back of that 15 minute candle.
If you carefully read my post again you'll see I was identifying & referencing the markets footprint offering clues to possible intent.
That 4 hour rejection bar printing at a pre identified zone of prior S&R would be the type of intent I would be seeking in order to prepare a potential set up/trigger entry.


I misunderstood, forgive me. Now it's totally clear.


strobe wrote:It's been mentioned to thread viewers & participants many times before that you don't have to adhere to every detail or suggestion recommended here. Pick that which resonates & fits comfortably with your preferred style, risk profile & objectives & discard or place less emphasis on that which doesn’t.


Yes, I'm sorry that you have to repeat this again but many pieces of the puzzle are really comming together for me lately and i'm now facing apparently similar situations as time ago, but my mental & technical approach is quite evolved. To put it simply, until the daily trend stops/flips over then i'll try to work it. So the various situations that i'm facing are:

1) Daily + hourlies in trend with sub-hourly pullback => done deal, no issues.
2) Daily + 4H in trend, 1H retracing => done deal, except sometimes price doesn't retrace all the way back to my established levels. Not a big deal. (NzdUsd is an example above)
3) Daily in trend, 4H retracing => this is something I have now digested logically, and as you've seen with GbpJpy my background work had been done well. But i've not triggered this type of trade yet. So I'm back here asking you guys for a couple of pointers.

strobe wrote:
jcpfx wrote:The trigger illustrated on the 9th is of course easier to play because you're legging in with the hourly dominant trend already in place...

Which is why that is the only part of my post that refers to a high probability entry option.


Now it's more straight-forward. I was previously confusing the demonstration of intent with the best available area to trigger. So that's where the confusion came from. Instead, you wait for the intent and then give price time/space to prove your hypothesis right. And then leg in via the higher-frequency time frame (i.e. 15 min for a 4H intent, 5/15 for a 1H intent).


strobe wrote: I thought by now you would have put all this sort of set up & pre-entry planning to bed & have your basic structural framework established. I'm somewhat surprised we're revisiting this well trodden path again.


What can I say strobe...I'm a slow learner with less confidence than a 5-yr old girl :oops:

My invitation that I extended to all you from the forum is still valid...if you ever make it to Italy for a trip just let me know and i'll re-pay my tuition debt that way 8)
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby strobe » Sun Sep 15, 2013 3:27 pm

jcpfx wrote:many pieces of the puzzle are really coming together for me lately and i'm now facing apparently similar situations as time ago, but my mental & technical approach is quite evolved.

To put it simply, until the daily trend stops/flips over then i'll try to work it. So the various situations that i'm facing are:
1) Daily + hourlies in trend with sub-hourly pullback => done deal, no issues.
2) Daily + 4H in trend, 1H retracing => done deal, except sometimes price doesn't retrace all the way back to my established levels. Not a big deal. (NzdUsd is an example above)
3) Daily in trend, 4H retracing => this is something I have now digested logically, and as you've seen with GbpJpy my background work had been done well. But i've not triggered this type of trade yet. So I'm back here asking you guys for a couple of pointers.

Why not just have 1 primary or background structural set up to refer to instead of 3 variations of the same thing?

It appears to me as though you're falling into the trap of over analysing each situation in an attempt to obtain a perfect fit scenario & that's just not going to happen.
If you’re not careful you'll begin to suffer analysis paralysis & end up talking (or analysing) yourself out of trade opportunities.

If I were you I would choose a style (day trading or swing trading) & stick with it until you have this process/approach & your preferred (simplified) operational structure nailed down so tight you could do it blindfolded.

You've admitted several times you're trying to eliminate previous bad habits & restructure your whole approach to this game.
The easiest way to generate confidence & establish a positive habit regime is to do the basic things correctly & keep your whole planning-execution-trade management process simple & repetitive.

You haven't given yourself anywhere near enough time yet to familiarise yourself with a solid & structured regimen before embarking on another route/course. Rushing this process & swapping styles/approaches mid stream will only serve to delay your progress & cause unnecessary confusion.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:50 pm

strobe wrote:
jcpfx wrote:many pieces of the puzzle are really coming together for me lately and i'm now facing apparently similar situations as time ago, but my mental & technical approach is quite evolved.

To put it simply, until the daily trend stops/flips over then i'll try to work it. So the various situations that i'm facing are:
1) Daily + hourlies in trend with sub-hourly pullback => done deal, no issues.
2) Daily + 4H in trend, 1H retracing => done deal, except sometimes price doesn't retrace all the way back to my established levels. Not a big deal. (NzdUsd is an example above)
3) Daily in trend, 4H retracing => this is something I have now digested logically, and as you've seen with GbpJpy my background work had been done well. But i've not triggered this type of trade yet. So I'm back here asking you guys for a couple of pointers.

Why not just have 1 primary or background structural set up to refer to instead of 3 variations of the same thing?

It appears to me as though you're falling into the trap of over analysing each situation in an attempt to obtain a perfect fit scenario & that's just not going to happen.
If you’re not careful you'll begin to suffer analysis paralysis & end up talking (or analysing) yourself out of trade opportunities.

If I were you I would choose a style (day trading or swing trading) & stick with it until you have this process/approach & your preferred (simplified) operational structure nailed down so tight you could do it blindfolded.

You've admitted several times you're trying to eliminate previous bad habits & restructure your whole approach to this game.
The easiest way to generate confidence & establish a positive habit regime is to do the basic things correctly & keep your whole planning-execution-trade management process simple & repetitive.

You haven't given yourself anywhere near enough time yet to familiarise yourself with a solid & structured regimen before embarking on another route/course. Rushing this process & swapping styles/approaches mid stream will only serve to delay your progress & cause unnecessary confusion.


Strobe,

thanks once again for your insight. You may have a point there...i'm using the 1h/5min combo, the 4h/15min combo and the daily/4h combo...so if I understand correctly what you're saying it's that the fractal nature of the market makes it possible to act the same way with each combination of frames. So basically analyze the same way on all primary frames and execute the same way on all secondary frames..correct?

The other observation I have started to keep in mind is that if all else fails, then on the big pullbacks look to the most recent 1H cycle violation level as a possible entry if price has reached and stalled/reacted off the anticipated level.

In the meantime, Summers has retreated and the greenback is taking a plunge...
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby kipper » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:48 pm

jcpfx wrote:You may have a point there...i'm using the 1h/5min combo, the 4h/15min combo and the daily/4h combo...so if I understand correctly what you're saying it's that the fractal nature of the market makes it possible to act the same way with each combination of frames. So basically analyze the same way on all primary frames and execute the same way on all secondary frames..correct?

The timeframe combinations are/were simply suggestions to assist with mapping/planning structural focus. They're not set in stone neither are they rigid frameworks.
Sub hourly triggers with or without an accompanying oscillator reference are again simply a suggested entry option which might or might not suit a particular traders style.

If it is suitable they can use it to assist with targeting or focusing attention on potential pullback or breakout opportunities & perhaps help with constructing a suitable risk & trade management profile based on the individuals desired time horizon trading objectives.

The 5 & 15 minute sub hourly timeframes can be used in isolation or in combination & they don't require to be bolted to any specific hourly timeframe combination.
The key & primary objective of this straightforward approach is to determine as effortlessly as possible the current directional flow of a currency pair by utilizing a top down, higher timeframe reference.
If you wish to determine & identify the current bias or flow of that pair by observing a Daily chart or a 240, 120 or 60 minute chart then so be it.
Don't complicate it.
If price is flowing up on a 240 minute then it will be flowing up on a 60 minute.
Once you've identified that flow you then sit & wait for whatever trigger you usually use to get you into the bet & it can trigger via whichever timeframe fits the bill.

Because this is a discretionary approach you're going to have to allow for degrees of flexibility. You're definitely not going to experience pitch perfect swing steps or precise pullback zones that react like clockwork the majority of the time. The structure only offers you a support mechanism. You will still need to use your judgement & experience to continually assess the probability of outcomes, which is why this type of trading can prove extremely frustrating & sometimes difficult to apply for some people.

It's not the easiest approach to trade by any means, particularly if you like your analysis to fit into neat & tidy boxes, but it is an approach that suits certain psychological attitudes, risk profiles & flexible styles.


The 1st step of the process is to correctly identify & get in tune with the current directional flow.
The 2nd step is to trigger an entry in tandem with that current directional flow.
That's it.
You can trigger via whichever timeframe chart you fancy based on your objective(s).

The remaining steps will be wholly influenced by those objectives (day or swing profile).
That in turn will put the wheels in motion directly influencing what proportion of your available capital will be staked on any individual or combination of bet(s), what type of risk appetite (stop loss/defensive measures) you're considering implementing & how you're intending to manage that bet.
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both hands on the steering wheel & both eyes on the road

Postby spotfx » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:55 am

jcp
Whenever you request or ask for thoughts or views on your contributions you have to appreciate that's all they are....the individuals view on that specific post.

Each person will be utilizing the information & material slightly differently & will be trading according to their capital exposure, risk appetite, experience & objectives.
By the very nature of the structured framework it's very likely most will, at some point, be looking at similar trade candidates as you, but their execution & management specifics will undoubtedly be very different due to the varied nature of the above criteria.

Bear in mind that up until very recently most of the entries you've been involved in have been the result of lower probability background set ups, which is totally understandable considering you're still familiarising yourself with the approach & refining your own style & interpretation of the material.

As strobe commented, you haven't yet established a solid & repetitive style nor recorded sufficient enough data to afford yourself a realistic appreciation of whether this type of approach is likely to be an effective vehicle for your requirements going forward.

It has been pointed out to you several times that this monotonous process will take time & cannot be short circuited.
I totally concur with his suggestion that you would be well advised to focus your complete attention on one very specific process & obtain the necessary feedback via your results first, before diluting & fragmenting that focus.

Just because the majority of participants don't day trade doesn’t mean you or anyone else shouldn't tailor the information to suit that type of tactic. The relevant information is there to accommodate all styles. Try not to become distracted or swayed by other posters preferences & styles.

You have to work your own deal, no-one can or will help you with you that aspect.
You need time to shape & hone your approach & the feedback will only offer you so much direction.

At the end of the day the thread already supplies all the material & appropriate background/foreground examples you'll ever need to refer to. It's a very simple 2 step process & it's more or less idiot proof. Just take your time to apply it, hone it to your own individual style & then get to work practicing, recording & adjusting where necessary.

The thread is meant to be a reference topic where you can revisit the material as often as required to help strenghten or prompt the reader to stay on track.
Everything you need has been covered multiple times within the pages.
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