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Re: Wk Comm Sept 9

Postby jcpfx » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:31 am

jcpfx wrote:Hope you're all having a good weekend!

It's been mostly a 1-man show here on the forum lately :| ....I guess most of you are just keeping your heads down & grinding through the markets?

Going into this week, my selection looks like this:

1) NzdUsd to the long side, possibly on a pb to the 7900/30 zone
2)UsdCad to the short side, possible on a pb to the 1.0480/1.0500 zone
3) AudUsd to the long side, possibly off 9120s or lower down off 9070s
4) UsdJpy to the long side, possibly with a completion of the 4H rotation started off 99.10s + GbpJpy off 154.70s (waiting for a 4H 1-2-3)
5) EurAud to the short side, but only if we get a pullback to the 1.4500 zone...

Good Luck!


Also, I would like to add an italian stock that has been behaving well since the Verizon/Vodafone deal went through... Telecom Italia, on speculation that it too may become a target for a takeover.

Looking for a pullback into the 0.55 area

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Re: Wk Comm Sept 9

Postby JimmyMac » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:24 pm

jcpfx wrote:It's been mostly a 1-man show here on the forum lately :| ....I guess most of you are just keeping your heads down & grinding through the markets?

August & early September (along with the last 2 weeks of December & early January) are traditionally quiet periods jcpfx due in part to a dissipation of liquidity & below average participation. Daily volumes are beginning to climb back up again on most of the institutional broker desks & it'll soon be full steam ahead.

Plus of course all of the thread regulars will be eyeing & setting up exactly the same structural background candidates as you've just posted today.
Once someone is comfortable & competent with the pre-entry identification process there isn't really the need to keep repeating the same info over & over – it simply becomes 2nd nature & automatic.

By now everyone should have absolutely no trouble in prioritizing the high probability currencies/pairs & slotting them into personal preference order on their work stations.
It's not really unusual to witness a slowing in thread traffic when people get to that particular stage of their development.
We would be surprised & slightly concerned if the regulars were still seeking confirmatory nods or assurance of background/foreground set ups.

That's not to say it will die a natural death, but you have to appreciate most on here don't day trade very much & thus aren't going to be dialling into the thread or the market quite as often as those who do.
I'm sure participation will pick up again once we get a foothold into September.

It's good to see you're now establishing some degree of consistency with the approach & appear to be molding it to your own individual tastes & style.
That's what it's all about after all.
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Re: Wk Comm Sept 9

Postby jcpfx » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:15 pm

Hey there Jimmy,

thanks for the info...I actually thought that september marked the return of volumes and that the first week was dull because of all the red-flag risk events.

Regarding the method you've all taught us in this forum, I can say that it has allowed me to tie all the timeframes and be able to see market as one "giant fractal" if you will.

Sometimes (like AudUsd last week) my stop placement still gets me into trouble, but things are getting better 8)

Good luck to you!
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Re: Wk Comm Sept 9

Postby whipcrack » Sun Sep 08, 2013 4:56 pm

jcpfx wrote:I actually thought that september marked the return of volumes and that the first week was dull because of all the red-flag risk events.

It's often patchy usually until the 2nd week Sept jcp & especially on any pairs that have been mired or bracketed in ranges leading into & out of holiday periods.
As Jim say's, a lot of the original posters appear to have moved away from intraday trading seeking out value wherever available in more medium term exposure, attempting to capitalize on any extended moves.

That will obviously impact thread activity to a certain extent. And as he pointed out, everyone will/should be plotting more or less identical background structure on the focus pairs even though the execution & management decisions will be varied based on the individual's objectives & risk appetite.

Lack of activity (particularly regards this approach) on the thread should be seen as a good/positive thing!
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Re: Wk Comm Sept 9th

Postby jcpfx » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:00 am

Couple of evident setups this morning on Aussie & Kiwi that look like intraday trades right now, as they represent only sub-hourly pullback possibilities in line with a trend that has moved quite a lot considering that last week I attempted to pick up Aussie off the 9010s mark and now we're almost 300 pips higher...

AudJpy might be a slightly better candidate for a long punt today...

EurJpy is also interesting but less clear

GbpUsd is also interesting but less clear

Good Luck to all that decide to participate today :-)
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Re: Wk Comm Sept 9th

Postby jcpfx » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:23 am

jcpfx wrote:Couple of evident setups this morning on Aussie & Kiwi that look like intraday trades right now, as they represent only sub-hourly pullback possibilities in line with a trend that has moved quite a lot considering that last week I attempted to pick up Aussie off the 9010s mark and now we're almost 300 pips higher...

AudJpy might be a slightly better candidate for a long punt today...

EurJpy is also interesting but less clear

GbpUsd is also interesting but less clear

Good Luck to all that decide to participate today :-)


I have just cancelled my buy stop order on $NzdUsd. Price has shot down and has broken the 8017 level which in my view should not have broken if there were sufficient bids to push Kiwi back up. I am now awaiting a 1H hook trigger, possibly further down towards the 7970 zone. On that note, Aussie still has some 20 odd pips to go as I would ideally like to pick it up at 9230...
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:10 am

Currently in the AudUsd bet: long @ 9250 with initial stop 9230

Image

Stops pulled up to 9237 in case the point 1 of the 5 min 1-2-3 gets faked, so I have a little lee-way.

Price found support at the beginning of the desired zone + yesterday's high print so it was worth a try.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:41 pm

So...AudUsd really behaved well today...but am I happy? Not really...

1) I had this idea that NzdUsd neede to find bids in the 8025/8016 block so when it pierced the block I stood down..only to see that more or less the moment I stepped down, the pair took off :evil:

2) I had my eye on Cable but wasn't sure if anyone else would have taken the hourly structure as high (enough) probability to wait for a pullback to the o/n lows and fire off towards yesterday's highs and 1.5750s so I stood down...and it would have offered decent odds.

Going into tomorrow, I'll be focused on the Jpy pairs...looking nice to me. EurJpy, UsdJpy, GbpJpy...
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:28 am

This morning I've just entered UsdJpy after 10.20 AM CET at 100.20 with my stop initially at 99.98. I think that if UsdJpy wants to rotate and continue the 1H trend, this is the moment it will comply...
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:58 am

jcpfx wrote:This morning I've just entered UsdJpy after 10.20 AM CET at 100.20 with my stop initially at 99.98. I think that if UsdJpy wants to rotate and continue the 1H trend, this is the moment it will comply...


I've just scratched this trade with a marginal gain, due to the fact that it's been going nowhere for the past couple of hours and it's usually the case that if it's going to be a winner, it'll move right away. The trades that just mope around are more of a 50-50 bet, the longer you stay in them. At least that my experience...
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