Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Took a trade in Bund this morning.
Looked for a long pullback into the 1H trend.
1h + 5Min charts below.
Any thoughts on this trade?

Technically from the standard structural viewpoint, it conforms to one of the typical set up/trigger combo's commonly seen on the thread.

To repeat what others have already said, the only way you're going to gain any kind of assurance & confidence that using this framework in conjunction with fundamentals offers you a viable option will be via the usual route of rigorous research & forward testing over a sufficiently acceptable selection of bets.

Each instrument class comes with its own unique set of behavioral traits, degrees of influence, momentum drivers & volatility ratios.
You're going to need to perform the exact same exercises you've conducted on any other asset class you've traded.

As with everything else, it's going to be a patient, disciplined & lengthy process.

Thanks for stepping in Goldtop...I can't hide a little bit of frustration for this trade having returned half the risk allocated but hey, the market was willing to give me that and that only.

At least "technically" it was a sound play.

Forexlion, thanks for wishing us good luck. To you & all the other regulars here, Good Luck back at' ya! Remember that even Warren Buffet said "between a good trader that performs in a modest way, and a lucky trader that knows less but performs well, give me the lucky one".

[jcpfx]

Back on Bund again today, as we have bounced the 4H support block with a usual entry trigger 4h/15min this morning:




So now i'll trail this thing upwards unless we get a 15min close below 140.30.

I only see EurUsd as interesting but unless it retraces big time, i'm not interested as it has covered too much ground today already.

[visualxray]

Back on Bund again today, as we have bounced the 4H support block with a usual entry trigger 4h/15min this morning

Yeah, that's a pretty solid entry set up on that one this morning.
Good luck with it.

I only see EurUsd as interesting but unless it retraces big time, i'm not interested as it has covered too much ground today already.

Absolutely. It's covered its ADR for today already down at the current days lows.
There was a possible entry earlier through the round number as it hesitated around yesterdays lows (3304), but it wasn't a particularly appetizing set up.

Month end flows will heavily dictate the landscape trading into tomorrows NY cut, so anything could happen especially combined with low summer volumes.

[jcpfx]

Hey VisualXray,

yeah, Bund is treating me better today than it did yesterday. After 11.15 CET, i shifted my trailing stop 7 ticks higher as per the 15min higher low. So we'll see.

Tomorrow I'll be away from the screens so unless EurUsd (or UsdChf for that matter) retrace, then the Bnd is all I'm going with.

On the stock side, I'm studying ENI.MI as it's moving well and i'm waiting for a pullback. The price dynamics and volatility are quite different than bonds and it appears to obey very well to retesting it's breakout areas. So I'll keep you posted on these developments...

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

happy Labor Day to all the US traders in here!

For us in Europe, september is starting in an interesting way. I see demand for GBP this morning and i think it might be due to the Verizon/Vodafone deal. Which means it's going to be a temporary flow if that is in fact the cause (correct me if i'm wrong).

I was not able to step into GbpCad (my preferred GBP pair this morning) as I got to my screens a little too late. Apart from GbpJpy, GbpChf, EurGbp, there's nothing else really looking good up until now.

On another note, the Monthly candle on the Dow from august seems to be saying "bull market, see you next year". The S&P isn't there quite yet and the Dax is also lagging.

Good luck going into the week! With central banks & NFP, it may be quite an interesting week news-wise (even thought I think it's not going to be as good trade-wise with all the red-flag events!)

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

this morning my focus is on the AudUsd after evident short covering on the RBA statement, plus there are touted stops around 9070 that would be a good target if I get a pullback around the 9000/20 level into London.

I also see some moderate USD-demand this morning, with UsdChf looking good (and I am waiting for a pullback) and UsdJpy also still holding onto yesterday's gains.

The GBP pairs have continued to hold their ground but I don't see any high probability setups there this morning. Maybe only GbpJpy if we get a break of 155 with a pullback. But there's also construction PMI from UK so I'd rather play AudUsd & UsdJpy...

Good Luck going into Today!

[jcpfx]

Was just stopped out of my first trade in september...minutes after getting in, there was a report of two missle launches in the Mediterranean and I was stopped out of AudUsd.

The trade looked really good on the chart...but I got hit

[hawkmoon]

Nothing you can do about that I'm afraid, it's just one of those things.
It's happened to me a couple of times. Annoying, especially when everything else lines up, but you just have to shrug your shoulders & wait for the next one.

[jcpfx]

Nothing you can do about that I'm afraid, it's just one of those things.
It's happened to me a couple of times. Annoying, especially when everything else lines up, but you just have to shrug your shoulders & wait for the next one.

I could have used a wider stop but everything looked good...anyhow...I'm still looking at aussie today, and will attempt to position myself anywhere from 9070 to 9030...

Nothing else tickles my fancy in the FX world.

The Bund is also looking wuite bearish and I would like to establish a position between 139,87 and 140,00 depending on how/where it opens.

Good luck to you all today!

[jcpfx]

Hope you're all having a good weekend!

It's been mostly a 1-man show here on the forum lately ....I guess most of you are just keeping your heads down & grinding through the markets?

Going into this week, my selection looks like this:

1) NzdUsd to the long side, possibly on a pb to the 7900/30 zone
2)UsdCad to the short side, possible on a pb to the 1.0480/1.0500 zone
3) AudUsd to the long side, possibly off 9120s or lower down off 9070s
4) UsdJpy to the long side, possibly with a completion of the 4H rotation started off 99.10s + GbpJpy off 154.70s (waiting for a 4H 1-2-3)
5) EurAud to the short side, but only if we get a pullback to the 1.4500 zone...

Good Luck!