Technical Templates

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:30 am

shona123 wrote:
spotfx wrote:That's just about as perfect & typical assessment, identification & high probability trigger as you'll get.
Well executed & nicely managed jcp.

Ditto.
If it's a day trade then I guess you're probably ready to make a final exit decision considering c98.70 represents it's current 1-3 month average daily range.
spotfx is bang on....that initial pop up & consolidation during it's own trading session & the subsequent continuation leg into early europe is a very typical set up of this approach & it looks like you're now identifying these higher probability scenarios on a pretty consistent basis.


If myself & my fiancèe are at this point in our trading journey, it's thanks to all your support :wink: My trailing stop was hit at 98.65 after a maximum favorable excursion of 98.78 so i diddn't get unseated too far down. Plus 98.60/70 was also the most recent daily swing high/potential reaction zone.

Our results are nothing to write home about yet, but they are improving :-)

Thanks & Good luck to all!
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Tech Templates Applied

Postby jcpfx » Mon Aug 26, 2013 7:09 am

Good morning to all!

Since finally feeling satisfied with our chart reading capabilities, myself & my fiancèe have been studying bond & stock fundamentals lately, as we intend to diversify our portfolio with other asset classes.

The way I approached this issue was first to do our homework on the fundamental drivers of bonds and stocks, and then read over some books from the CFA course on how the accademics and fund managers have built/managed their portfolios, so we have a better idea of how others act. We still have to finish our studying of stocks, but we have finished the work on bonds and it turns out that we're heading for the toughest moment in bond trading: rising rate environment. Rates will not rise for some time still (i think) but in the next 6 months we're probably in for a surprize.

Anyhow...all the studying is basically to help us "skate where the puck is". Then the actual decisions are made through the same chart reading techniques used on FX. So I was wondering if anyone in here has already made the progression from "only FX" to some other asset classes and if there are any lessons/advice to share.

By looking at the stock/bond charts, it seems that the Daily chart carries more significance than in FX. It may be just an impression, but i'd love to hear what you think. I have however been naturally inclined to start backtesting a paper traded strategy using the following rules:

1) wait for a Daily 1-2-3.
2) Then wait until the 4H gets into the overbought/oversold region and starts to stall (possibly with dojis, pins, etc.)
3) Then trigger with a 1H 1-2-3

So basically it's the same "fractal" way of combining time frames, but it starts from the Daily and not from the 4H.

Any thoughts?

Thanks and enjoy the last week of "lazy trading"! 8)
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Re: Tech Templates Applied

Postby kipper » Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:03 am

To be honest I personally don't feel the need or inclination to diversify into anything other than what I currently trade, which is fx & occasional forays into the regional indices whenever a similar high quality technical set up presents itself.

I guess if your equity allocation is sufficient enough to absorb multi asset-diversification & you're intending to run a tiered (time duration) portfolio, then it's a viable strategy, but my stake bank is very small (just shy of £200k) & I don't have nearly enough equity to begin that kind of diversification. Plus the fact the vast majority of my bets (72.5% thus far) are short to medium term in duration - rolling over between 2 & 5 days, therefore the incentive isn't there to adopt that type of offset or combination outlay.

I'm more than satisfied with the financial returns, results & workload my current outlook provides. Perhaps if I was looking to run longer term positions or look to running a side-by-side time duration strategy I might feel justified or motivated to incorporate bonds & stocks, but I'm not.

But good luck to you if that's your preferred route.
Just don't be in too much of a hurry to run before you can (financially) walk.
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Re: Tech Templates Applied

Postby speedbump » Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:05 am

jcpfx wrote:By looking at the stock/bond charts, it seems that the Daily chart carries more significance than in FX. It may be just an impression, but i'd love to hear what you think.
1) wait for a Daily 1-2-3.
2) Then wait until the 4H gets into the overbought/oversold region and starts to stall (possibly with dojis, pins, etc.)
3) Then trigger with a 1H 1-2-3

So basically it's the same "fractal" way of combining time frames, but it starts from the Daily and not from the 4H.
Any thoughts?

It looks ok, but the real proof of the pudding will be in the tasting.
The true validation of justifying the extra financial, time & effort commitment will be via the same route you took when confirming if trading fx was a worthwhile exercise, & that's via the rigorous testing & research procedures you're going to need to implement.

I fall into the category that kipper describes, in that I'm completely comfortable with focusing solely on fx products.
The approach shared here ensures I'm able to benefit from more than enough day trade & rollover opportunities to satisfy my needs & requirements.

But then my capital investment, financial goals, work commitment & lifestyle objectives will be very different to yours, so it's all relative.
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Food for thought

Postby jcpfx » Mon Aug 26, 2013 1:42 pm

Thanks for stepping in and offering food for thought guys.

Kipper actually struck a chord with me, saying "don't run before you can walk" financially speaking. And speedbump reinforced the other point: that it's best to first have a good amount of trades done on one instrument, before passing onto another trying to do the same thing.

So i've got stuff to think about...

The main reason is that myself & my fiancèe have a small retail account with a retail broker for FX & CFDs...but my father is a 30 year market veteran that's getting increasingly tired of managing the family's affairs and would really like to pass the load onto myself & my fiancèe...but he (and I) know that can't happen yet. He's primarily "income-driven" so he's big on bonds and covered calls on a couple of stocks traded on the italian FTSE MIB. He's not big on short-term stuff, unless of course he chooses a relatively underpriced bond that jumps in a few days. That's to say, if he makes 5% in a week on a long term 5% coupon bond, he'll dump it and wait for something else to pop up on the radar.

So now that he's seen us doing better on the FX side, he's asked us to get up to speed on bonds and stocks so that he can shift some burden onto our shoulders. I welcome the challenge, and as you've understood by now, I'm bouncing ideas off of you guys to help me when I have some doubts about proceedings... 8)
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Re: Food for thought

Postby round number » Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:40 pm

jcpfx wrote:Since finally feeling satisfied with our chart reading capabilities, myself & my fiancèe have been studying bond & stock fundamentals lately, as we intend to diversify our portfolio with other asset classes.
we have finished the work on bonds and it turns out that we're heading for the toughest moment in bond trading

jcpfx wrote:my father is a 30 year market veteran that's getting increasingly tired of managing the family's affairs and would really like to pass the load onto myself & my fiancèe...but he (and I) know that can't happen yet.

I'm assuming your father has had a consistently successful run if he's still harvesting profits over a 30 year period? if so, & the strategy is well established & profitable, then would it not make more sense to continue running it based on what's worked for 30 years & tap into his wealth of experience?
Perhaps delegate that part of the portfolio to either yourself or your fiancé & maybe try & incorporate the best bits of what your father has been doing.

You mentioned a couple posts back that although you were now a lot more satisfied & confident with the progress you're making, you weren't yet at your desired level of profitability.
I fear that taking on even more pressure by attempting to fast track another asset class before you're fully competent & established in this one could derail your progress & set you back even further.

Obviously you both know your own limits & capabilities, but you've struggled a lot with trying establish a groove trading this approach, I hope you don't unravel all that progress by heaping even more stress onto your plate.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Mon Aug 26, 2013 5:17 pm

round number wrote:I'm assuming your father has had a consistently successful run if he's still harvesting profits over a 30 year period? if so, & the strategy is well established & profitable, then would it not make more sense to continue running it based on what's worked for 30 years & tap into his wealth of experience?
Perhaps delegate that part of the portfolio to either yourself or your fiancé & maybe try & incorporate the best bits of what your father has been doing.


My father did many other jobs in his life, and had a passion for the markets. He is self-trained and one of the main reasons you see me on the forum - as opposed to taking notes at his side - is because his view of the markets was created in very different times. He does not have a "method". Actually, he loves to play with numbers and created a lot of proprietary indicators...which I used for my university thesis and demonstrated that the indicators alone were no better than a coin flip. He took that very personally...

So when my fiancèe and I started on our own, we were confronted with a person who was profitable but could not explain why he would do things when he would do them. So basically we had to learn ourselves. Now, 2 years later, I'm able to understand what goes on in his head. His experience staring at bonds and options allows him to identify mispriced issues or good deals. He gets in, and will sit on stuff until the market proves him right (on bonds). Or, he will protect himself on the way down (with options in stocks) constantly reducing his price by bringing in premiums through option selling, when things go bad.

But WHY he puts on the positions and WHEN he puts on the positions is all in his head... And now i'm able to appreciate what he says and understand more of what he says, but it's only because I can now "read" a chart, and I have also studied inside out the funcioning and pricing of bonds. Still working on the stock/option sector.



round number wrote: You mentioned a couple posts back that although you were now a lot more satisfied & confident with the progress you're making, you weren't yet at your desired level of profitability.

I fear that taking on even more pressure by attempting to fast track another asset class before you're fully competent & established in this one could derail your progress & set you back even further.


This may be, but to be honest, i need to go through the process of following both to find out. I feel like taking this risk at the moment...

round number wrote:Obviously you both know your own limits & capabilities, but you've struggled a lot with trying establish a groove trading this approach, I hope you don't unravel all that progress by heaping even more stress onto your plate.


As you've noticed, we've been quite busy and we don't have any alternatives. But believe me: we've been through more stressful times. The fact that going through all this has led us to finally be "at ease" working in the same room as my father and speaking roughly the same language has taken a lot of pressure off. So we'll see what this last quarter of 2013 has in store for us.

I'll keep you posted but as usual, it's great talking with you...it's been quite the journey up until today and i'm al lot more excited now than i was a year ago... :wink:
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:31 am

Took a trade in Bund this morning, as yesterday the Bund flipped it's bias to long and also broke last week's high. Looked for a long pullback into the 1H trend (going strong) in the 140.50/70 block (more or less around last week's high print). 1h + 5Min charts below. Current trailing stop is at 140.75. Have no idea about the orders on the Bund, but the Syria issues that have been keeping a bid under Jpy & Usd in my mind should keep the Bund supported as well.

Image

Image

Any thoughts on this trade?

Thx

Edit: just taken out on my trailing stop right after posting this.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby goldtop » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:12 am

jcpfx wrote:Took a trade in Bund this morning.
Looked for a long pullback into the 1H trend.
1h + 5Min charts below.
Any thoughts on this trade?

Technically from the standard structural viewpoint, it conforms to one of the typical set up/trigger combo's commonly seen on the thread.

To repeat what others have already said, the only way you're going to gain any kind of assurance & confidence that using this framework in conjunction with fundamentals offers you a viable option will be via the usual route of rigorous research & forward testing over a sufficiently acceptable selection of bets.

Each instrument class comes with its own unique set of behavioral traits, degrees of influence, momentum drivers & volatility ratios.
You're going to need to perform the exact same exercises you've conducted on any other asset class you've traded.

As with everything else, it's going to be a patient, disciplined & lengthy process.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby ForexLion » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:01 am

Good luck
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