Technical Templates

[kipper]

I have been able to progress further down the road of "chart reading" and background planning, and would like to share some considerations that you & the others have probably discovered some time ago.

I could say that the initial "journey" that myself & my fiancèe started in march 2012 has come to an end and we possess the correct knowledge to understand most of what charts have to tell us.
Love to hear your thoughts on all of this

From my perspective, your charts explain your view & potential positioning clearer than your text, but yeah that's the message I got about what the material has been encouraging viewers to do when I began reading & participating here.

To make it even simpler, & to further clarify my understanding of the higher probability entry option....once you identify the primary directional view based on your own personal base timeframe preference, you can trigger your PULLBACK entries from whichever secondary chart you choose.

Note the use of the term PULLBACK in that sentence (that's the most important bit of the whole process in my book).
I personally wouldn't trigger an entry of a break of a momentum high or low until I can identify a suitable PULLBACK on my secondary timeframe of choice, & judging by the similarity of charts & comments from the other longer term regulars over the past few years, they wouldn't either.

The reason for playing that particular trigger option in tandem with this directional type approach is because (through my own experience & results validation) not only does it help to confirm & support participation for a move, it also affords keener risk, higher odds of continuation follow through & usually gets you in ahead of potentially tricky or busy price levels.

Obviously how & why you choose to trigger entries is your business & will be tailored to your individual risk appetite & trading objectives, but it appears you've got a decent handle on the background structure at last. That alone should afford you a far more relaxed & confident pre-trade persona going forward.

[Sarah Foster]

From my perspective, your charts explain your view & potential positioning clearer than your text, but yeah that's the message I got about what the material has been encouraging viewers to do when I began reading & participating here.

I'll second that!

I personally wouldn't trigger an entry of a break of a momentum high or low until I can identify a suitable PULLBACK on my secondary timeframe of choice, & judging by the similarity of charts & comments from the other longer term regulars over the past few years, they wouldn't either.

I'll second that too.
In fact the cyclical action that we participate in makes the pullback hook a natural & very simple entry technique to apply.

I love it & although it doesn't work all the time, my results confirm it's certainly consistently successful enough for it to be my number one entry choice.

[jcpfx]

From my perspective, your charts explain your view & potential positioning clearer than your text, but yeah that's the message I got about what the material has been encouraging viewers to do when I began reading & participating here.

As somone once said "a chart is worth 1000 words"...but at least you got the point

To make it even simpler, & to further clarify my understanding of the higher probability entry option....once you identify the primary directional view based on your own personal base timeframe preference, you can trigger your PULLBACK entries from whichever secondary chart you choose.

Yes, the triggers are "naturally" deployed at the sup/res area that price is pulling back to

Note the use of the term PULLBACK in that sentence (that's the most important bit of the whole process in my book).
I personally wouldn't trigger an entry of a break of a momentum high or low until I can identify a suitable PULLBACK on my secondary timeframe of choice, & judging by the similarity of charts & comments from the other longer term regulars over the past few years, they wouldn't either.

Yes, the template is based upon playing the pullbacks in line with trend. I agree.

The reason for playing that particular trigger option in tandem with this directional type approach is because (through my own experience & results validation) not only does it help to confirm & support participation for a move, it also affords keener risk, higher odds of continuation follow through & usually gets you in ahead of potentially tricky or busy price levels.

I agree completely.

Obviously how & why you choose to trigger entries is your business & will be tailored to your individual risk appetite & trading objectives, but it appears you've got a decent handle on the background structure at last. That alone should afford you a far more relaxed & confident pre-trade persona going forward.

Confidence is rising, thanks to all the support you guys are showing here

My thoughts would be as such:

as long as the 4H AND 1H are trending, and i'm triggering a sub-hourly pullback, then the probability factor should be high and the trade can start offf being an intraday bet.

If the 4H is trending and the 1H is pulling back, i'm triggering a combined 1H+sub-hourly pullback which has a slightly lower probability factor and could be a multi day operation.

If the 4H is pulling back, then i'm triggering a combined 4H+1H pullback which has a lower probability factor and will most likely be a multi day operation.

That pretty much summs up my background view/probability view as it stands now

[jcpfx]

Two bets for me this morning. NzdUsd short and GbpAud long:

[xerb]

Two bets for me this morning. NzdUsd short and GbpAud long:

Yeah those two have steadily moved into prominence over the past 5 or 6 trading sessions haven't they, along with aud/jpy, aud/usd & eur/nzd.

I didn't play today. The first session after non-farms payrolls is often a tetchy, choppy affair with the market attempting to realign itself & absorb the orders that parked up prior to the release.
If any of those 5 pairs show signs of further continuation activity I'll look to re-engage, failing that it'll be a watching brief.

[zilly]

Yeah those two have steadily moved into prominence over the past 5 or 6 trading sessions haven't they, along with aud/jpy, aud/usd & eur/nzd.

And virtually all of those pairs then set up orderly reverse triggers in the opposite direction the week after your post & have remained directional going into this week's business cycle.

I noted that up until the middle end of last week most retail clients were positioned heavily contra (as usual) to the reversal directional moves, thus lending extra confidence to taking those reversal bets on.
That data never fails to act as a consistently solid confidence indicator when assessing follow through moves.

It's the same story on gbp/usd & eur/usd.
They've been positioned up to 65% short from 5380 on Aug 6 & 3180 on July 25 respectively

[kyle morgan]

I noted that up until the middle end of last week most retail clients were positioned heavily contra (as usual) to the reversal directional moves, thus lending extra confidence to taking those reversal bets on.
It's the same story on gbp/usd & eur/usd.
They've been positioned up to 65% short from 5380 on Aug 6 & 3180 on July 25 respectively

As you say, it's always a very accurate contrary indicator when you see the majority of retail either overly long or short a particular pair.

Take this morning as a classic & typical example....according to current data 2/3rds are still short Cable going into a fresh week attempting to pick another top, whilst regular viewers of this thread will have been patiently waiting for that sub hourly (15 and/or 5min) hook long trigger earlier, having correctly identified the current continuation bullish hourly trend.

It's not as though it's an exception either, it plays out most every week!

[jcpfx]

USD strength is still playing out on UsdJpy today and Jpy selling has been noted overnight. So I was looking at UsdJpy going into London this morning and took a position (half stake as we are still in august) off the 5Min hook at the most recent momo low on the 1H chart that should (and did) have held in order for the 1H trend to continue.
I am managing this via the 5min momo swings (trailing stop currently at 98.33)


1H

5Min

[spotfx]

I was looking at UsdJpy going into London this morning and took a position off the 5Min hook at the most recent momo low on the 1H chart that should (and did) have held in order for the 1H trend to continue.

That's just about as perfect & typical assessment, identification & high probability trigger as you'll get.
Well executed & nicely managed jcp.

USDCAD & NZDUSD are two more very noteable beneficiaries of continued directional (hourly) momentum this week again, as are GBPCAD & EURNZD.
Although liquidity is still suppressed there are tradeable opportunities out there providing you're careful & respectful of risk & size management.

[shona123]

That's just about as perfect & typical assessment, identification & high probability trigger as you'll get.
Well executed & nicely managed jcp.

Ditto.
If it's a day trade then I guess you're probably ready to make a final exit decision considering c98.70 represents it's current 1-3 month average daily range.
spotfx is bang on....that initial pop up & consolidation during it's own trading session & the subsequent continuation leg into early europe is a very typical set up of this approach & it looks like you're now identifying these higher probability scenarios on a pretty consistent basis.