Technical Templates

[midgely88]

So basically I'm the only one who took this trade on EurAud ?

If the 5 minute chart is the one you plan your main body of work off, then I guess the entry is valid.

But if the hourly is the primary work chart then there's no evidence yet that this corrective move back off the current week's highs is done.
It would need to print similar technical behaviour that your 5 minute chart displayed (a 1-2-3) before it interested me.

That would need to take price back up through 1.3380 on the back of at least an hourly higher low, which would then have me scrutinising the 5 or 15min charts for the usual trigger criteria.

[jcpfx]

So basically I'm the only one who took this trade on EurAud ?

If the 5 minute chart is the one you plan your main body of work off, then I guess the entry is valid.

But if the hourly is the primary work chart then there's no evidence yet that this corrective move back off the current week's highs is done.
It would need to print similar technical behaviour that your 5 minute chart displayed (a 1-2-3) before it interested me.

That would need to take price back up through 1.3380 on the back of at least an hourly higher low, which would then have me scrutinising the 5 or 15min charts for the usual trigger criteria.

Hi Midgely,

no, the 5Min is not my primary and YES the 1H chart has not yet (even as I write) given any sign of rotation. I agree that the flow is currently down and that I was lucky to get out untarnished.

I did some more work today regarding "working with the flows" to make sure it happens less often.

I would like to take the time to thank all those contributors that have been helping myself (& my fiancèe who trades alongside me) get our game more established & gradually getting better in 2013. And I don't just mean the heavy hitters like Joe & jjay (which has been really kind to listen to our rants) but also Goldtop, Strobe, Speedbump, Zilly, Shona, midgely88...good luck to all of you, you deserve the best

[jcpfx]

Today the market has given us a few warning signs of things that may come next.
1) A confirmation of yesterday's S&P daily pin bar
2) The early afternoon sell-off in the USD.

Makes me wonder if the current trends are running out of steam.

So now we have:

NzdUsd above weekly open and trending higher in the 1H, fiddling with yesterday's high > covered too much space today, so maybe tomorrow it will oblige and give an entry

AudUsd (less evident than Kiwi) back above last week's/yesterday's low and fiddling with the weekly open...

UsdCad trying to rotate higher off 1.0360s evident 1H flip (doesn't fit my requirements for entries yet...the descent below yesterday's high & last week's high have me on guard)

Euro&Cable showing similar traits with the Euro slightly more promising at the moment...

End of month flows on EurGbp creating a "v" reversal...I was looking to 8560 for a rotation higher but there was none.

EurAud did rotate upwards from yesterday's level at 1.3330s but it did it overnight so no trade for me there.

Would love to hear your comments on the recent market action

[zilly]

Today the market has given us a few warning signs of things that may come next.

Would love to hear your comments on the recent market action.

Of the selection I highlighted last Sunday only USDCAD offered an entry yesterday through 1.0370 which has subsequently just been exited this afternoon at b/e, & AUDJPY triggered a sell stop on the hourly lower high off 98.20 during the beginning of its regional session earlier today.
Exit stop is also resting at entry on that one.

Nothing else has tickled my taste buds thus far, certainly not EURUSD or GBPUSD which in my opinion are still chopping around aimlessly on the hourly charts so far this week.

[xerb]

The only bets on my trade blotter this week are shorting sub hourly rallies in line with the dominant hourly trend on cad/jpy & aud/chf & longing pullbacks in line with the dominant trend on gbp/aud.

Play the big, obvious trending instruments whilst they're still in motion & leave the scrappy, choppy pairs until they open out a little more.

[jcpfx]

Thanks Zilly & Xerb,

yeah, I was focused elsewhere yesterday and only noticed in the evening UsdCad. Regarding the selection of pairs, I've tried to cut down my costs. I'm not trading large enough to access lower spreads, and in Italy the selection of brokers is limited. I'm working with a well-capitalized, no dealing desk broker that gives me good execution (even in turbulent times), but I have to limit the ccy pairs I play. Here are the pairs I can choose from, since I have decided to limit my broker's "fee" to 3,5 pips



But I can definitely filter them better.

Thanks guys and good going!

[spotfx]

Today the market has given us a few warning signs of things that may come next.
Makes me wonder if the current trends are running out of steam.

I don't see any solid evidence of that happening just yet jcp.

You only have to flip through the 4 hour & daily charts of the pairs highlighted consistently by the guys in their weekend pre-market open updates to see that the cycle structure of most of them are still intact.

If the dominant trends were running out of gas you would notice aggressive & prolonged corrective bars that were stronger in their make-up & behavior than the impulse bars preceding them.
That would then equate to counter swing price action such as lower highs & lows within the context of a bullish move (especially on the 4 hour charts) which violated previous swing lows & failed to attract support at these levels.

That isn't playing out yet, certainly not in the regular spotlight pairs such as gbpaud, euraud, audjpy, usdcad etc.

As kyle noted, it's not unusual to witness periods of consolidation or temporarily exhaustive price action playing out during strong trends, but until they begin to show undeniable evidence of turning over & fizzling out the higher probability option is to continue betting the dominant direction via pullbacks/breakouts.

[jcpfx]

Thanks SpotFX, Xerb & Zilly,

it appears that I am still having issues finding the main trend. Yesterday I spent some time trying to find out what is generating the confusion and I think it's just an overlay of too many guidelines.

I hope you can help me clear things up a little...so here goes...

I really liked the initial posts from this thread, looking to use the week's open + day's open to get the main flows right.
Then there was the evolution of the trend following approach, looking for very clear trends on the 4H chart.
Finally, there is a lot to say about the daily trend.

As of yesterday, I have decided to try and clear things up a little, and thus step back to the Daily trend (if one exists).
Also, if I have understood correctly, the odds are even more increased if firing in line with the weekly open & daily open.

This situation would look something like EurUsd longs today, given that the Euro has consolidated above 1.3000 and is pointing towards 1.3250.
This situation would also look like longs on Cable, given that 1.5158 has been consolidated.

UsdCad, instead, is a little confusing. The daily trend appears to be still up as long as 1.0290/1.0310 zone holds, and there is a 1-2-3 on the 1H chart off 1.0319 forming this morning, which would put price above the weelky open & daily open while cycling in the direction of the daily trend. Of course, a rise in UsdCad makes a rise in Euro & Cable less probable...

Am I still reading the trend with the wrong set of eye glasses? I may be a slow learner guys, but it comes from having to erase all the initial influences I had when starting out.

Thank you & Good Luck today.

[midgely88]

it appears that I am still having issues finding the main trend.
I hope you can help me clear things up a little.

I'm coming at this from a similar experience level as you jcp & I agree you're trying to incorporate too many views into your regular analysis which appears to be causing conflicting signals & confusing outcomes.

The structure of this approach is universal regardless of which primary timeframe you adopt.
The clear objective is to dial into an identifiable trend.

The overall message I've got from the experienced guy's is, that until you're sufficiently experienced it's advisable to use one primary timeframe as your basis for identifying the trend & either trigger your entries & manage your positions via that one primary frame, or use a lower (secondary) timeframe to time the entries.

There will be many occasions where a daily chart will conflict from say a 120 or 60 minute chart.
Also the trading aims & objectives might be very different utilising those differing chart perspectives.

You might have larger target objectives & will require the use of a wider margin for error by utilising larger stop loss placement on a daily chart view than someone only seeking an intraday outlook from a 60 minute trend using a 5 or 15 minute chart to time their entry.

Unless & until you're really confident navigating your way around a price chart it's probably best to take their wise advice & limit yourself to one simple, efficient timeframe combination that suits your style of trading & meets your risk & trading objectives.

That's what I did when I first encountered these guys & it hasn't done me any harm.
No confusing or conflicting variables, there's either a very easily identifiable trend or there isn't.
If there isn't I dial into another pair, go through the same identification process & then drop down into my 15/5min charts & wait for a hook entry via a pullback to time my entry.

[visualxray]

I think midge has quite accurately reiterated your achilles heel jcp.
You still need to work on your focus & discipline.

You're continuing to jump around from one set of criteria to another, not allowing yourself to settle & bed into a consistent approach sufficiently long enough to begin analysing the results of your endeavour.

Your comments regarding the eur/usd is a good example.
The guys have been highlighting & recommending eur/aud for weeks now as a viable trending vehicle.

If you're intent on trading euro why aren't you looking for & triggering pullback continuation bets on eur/aud?
Just put eur/usd & eur/aud side by side comparing the 60m or 240m info.
Which one is highlighting the lower entry risk, higher trending potential?

You could have fed yourself handsomely from just that one pair over the past 5 to 6 weeks.