Technical Templates

[speedbump]

I thought that entering right before important news events was a 50-50 bet at best...a real coin flip!
even the pros don't enter right before the news..only newbies do.

All those warnings & gentle reminders are paying dividends then!!

Looking elsewhere: is UsdCad on anybody's radar from the long side off 1.0240s today?

It's not on mine yet.
If it manages to hold above the higher hourly low at the 1.0220 area & offers a typical trigger set up then I'll be tempted, but the bearish push down today doesn't look particularly appetizing at all.

[shona123]

Looking elsewhere: is UsdCad on anybody's radar from the long side today?
I'm not in it but was wondering if anyone would have a long bias on it yet.

If it begins to exhibit continued bullish behavior that translates to the usual set up & trigger criteria such as that presented in the accompanying chart, then I too will become interested.
But until then this pair is on my watch & wait list.

[jcpfx]

I thought that entering right before important news events was a 50-50 bet at best...a real coin flip!
even the pros don't enter right before the news..only newbies do.

All those warnings & gentle reminders are paying dividends then!!

Looking elsewhere: is UsdCad on anybody's radar from the long side off 1.0240s today?

It's not on mine yet.
If it manages to hold above the higher hourly low at the 1.0220 area & offers a typical trigger set up then I'll be tempted, but the bearish push down today doesn't look particularly appetizing at all.

LOL! On days like today, it's tough to accept the fact that it's better to be safe, rather then sorry. But yeah, I've been able to change my view on things, and i'm not in a hurry to trade anymore.

Good luck everyone on UsdCad

[round number]

gbp/jpy, aud/jpy & gbp/cad are worth keeping tabs on into the end of week trade.
all 3 are moving nicely into view on the trend wheel & I have them zoomed into sub hourly timeframes ready to pull the trigger on whichever serves up an appropriate set up

[zilly]

gbp/jpy, aud/jpy are worth keeping tabs on into the end of week trade.

You can always rely on a gov't finance official (governer kuroda in this case) to spoil a nice looking party
Looks like Yen is is getting dizzy from his flirting comments this morning.

[round number]

Yeah, sometimes it leans the other way & you get the opportunity to leg into a momentum driven pullback - we'll see.

Sterling off to the races though on the back of the retail sales data.
Pop goes the Cable range.....right direction too!

Gimme a pullback hook you beauty....go on you know you want to

[jcpfx]

Good Morning RN,

I agree on GbpCad, but I started off this morning with a different view on GbpJpy even if UsdJpy was still holding above 95.40s (which was just breached).

GbpJpy4H

I diddn't like the IB that formed o/n and was broken to the downside. In my experience, if a big 4H IB is broken, especially at a recent high, it's a real coin flip to fight against it. Since you've been trading for longer than I have, I would love to hear your view on this! I stayed away from GbpJpy & from other Jpy pairs because of similar signs..something diddn't feel right, even if UsdJpy was still holding above 95.40s (which have now been breached anyhow).

I preferred to choose between GbpCad & GbpUsd (exact same structure on the 2 pairs) and I went with GbpUsd:

4H view:


1H view:


Given the structure now on the Jpy pairs, would you currently still be looking long? I'm personally on the sidelines and am not inspired at the moment...

Thanks!

[round number]

I didn't like the IB that formed o/n and was broken to the downside. In my experience, if a big 4H IB is broken, especially at a recent high, it's a real coin flip to fight against it. Since you've been trading for longer than I have, I would love to hear your view on this!

Given the structure now on the Jpy pairs, would you currently still be looking long? I'm personally on the sidelines and am not inspired at the moment

I don't pay any attention to individual candles/bars jcp so I'm not really the best sounding board for that kind of feedback unfortunately.
I'm only concerned with the general background flavor & getting positioned on a decent value entry via my usual set up/trigger combo's.

This mornings jawboning (from Kuroda) is upsetting the Yen applecart thus far, so I'll hang fire & wait see how it settles.
But yeah, I'm still comfortable with a long view on gbp/jpy & aud/jpy at current levels for now.

Good luck with your Cable bet

[goldtop]

Kyle gave a very good technical heads up on Cable last Sunday.
Well worth bearing in mind for those already positioned & others seeking to squeeze juice out of any supportive pullback thrust.

Providing it can attract support on any slip back towards 1.5050 then I too will feed into Cable longs.
The immediate test for any further upside momentum lies in wait at the late february/early march resistance zone of 1.52
Breach that zone successfully & it should have a clear run to 5300.

[jcpfx]

Good afternoon everyone,

forgive me if I seem to lack discipline, but i have a question regarding "high probability pullbacks" vs. "low probability pullbacks".

The stochastic helps to point out when price is pulling back "sufficiently" compared to the price action in the lookback period (14 candles for the default 14,3,3 setting). So we look for the double 1H/15min OR 1h/5Min. Those are "high prob" pullbacks.

I would like to take an example of a "low prob" pullback from today on Cable.


Price pulled back to 5120/40 zone, which must hold in order for price to continue cycling higher. This zone is clearly too shallow for the 1H stoch to be able to hook up from 20. So, from a levels perspective it's a trade that I would (and did) take, from the break of the 15Min IB in green and a stop below the preceding pin.
But it's not a "boyscout trade". And thus, I'm a little unsecure and feel like i'm taking below-average trades. Edit: Also, the time isn't exactly right for playing Sterling or Euro...

Any thoughts?

Thanks!