Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Nothing much to write home about really, just 2.2% (57 pips) on 2 trades.
Both on 5 minute hooks.
Yesterday in @ 1.5088 at London open & today in @ 1.5086, same deal.

Thats definitely better than 2 stop outs...

My thinking was similar to yours...but my "problem" was that I waited until the 1H chart gave an indication of turing around (evident on the 15min charts I posted above). I had seen the 15min IB yesterday morning and today at the lows BUT diddn't even think to pull the trigger on the break because the 4H is still consolidating but the 1H and 15Min are cycling down...

I guess the reasoning is just outright wrong...in a range, I'll start to look for the tightest entry possible at the bottom of the range in an uptrend on the 4H chart (vice versa in a downtrend) regardless of the state of the 1H & 15min cycles.

I personally find the 123 trigger you've highlighted on your charts too late in range type conditions.
I like to get in really close to the bottoms of range channels when the dominant trend is bullish & in close to the top of range channels when the dominant trend is bearish & I find the hook trigger very accommodating in those market conditions.

Evidently! I was instead thinking: we're in the middle of the range here...usually cash out area..but i'm trading with 1.5170s in mind...and the ADR would allow 1.5200...so there's space...plus until my entry, the 1H was still NOT signalling bullish momentum, which is usually a minimum requirement for trend trades...

Any counter thoughts on my thoughts?

And in any case, GOOD JOB to you!

[JimmyMac]

Not much to write home about really, just 2.2% (57 pips) on 2 trades.

That's not what my returns log says on those two proofed bets
I make it 5.7% paid, but if you're happy with 2.2% I'll keep the rest & buy a few rounds with it at the w/end

My thinking was similar to yours...but my "problem" was that I waited until the 1H chart gave an indication of turing around (evident on the 15min charts I posted above).
I was instead thinking: we're in the middle of the range here...usually cash out area..but i'm trading with 1.5170s in mind
Any counter thoughts on my thoughts?

You can't afford to wait or hang around when triggering in shallow range conditions jcpfx, especially not if you're seeking a breakout test & run such as the guys highlighted at the weekend on this pair.

The lower range floor is clearly identified, therefore if you're attempting to bet long for an upper b/o test you need to mitigate the risk by taking bets at the lower quadrant of the range as 2Taps commented.
Triggering in the middle of the range exposes you to whipsaw & leaves you high & dry in no-mans land.
If you bet long at the 5080's & lose your stop that tells you the range is weak & this thing is losing momentum up here.
But that's where you need to be getting stopped out, not in the middle of a churning range.

[2Taps]

That's not what my returns log says on those two proofed bets
I make it 5.7% paid, but if you're happy with 2.2% I'll keep the rest & buy a few rounds with it at the w/end

My bad & of course you're right!
That's what you get when replying in a hurry & trying to multi-task at the same time.
The 2.2% was the risk, not the profit...

Jim more or less covers what I would have said on your reply question jcp.
The range top & bottom are: 5140-5070

[jcpfx]

Understood Jimmy, thanks for stepping in to comment on this issue.

By looking at 2Taps entries, I had gathered that as well.

It's all good & a learning experience (as almost all losses are), and I was very conservative on these coin-flips so there's really no harm done.

If I may enquire, do you guys ever place "gap closing" trades on wide gaps (i.e. > 50 pips) ?

Thanks and good luck for the rest of the week (even if you won't need it ;-P )

[JimmyMac]

If I may enquire, do you guys ever place "gap closing" trades on wide gaps (i.e. > 50 pips) ?

We don't & I'm not aware of any of the regulars here who do either jcpfx.
Unless the gap happens to figure in the normal events of preparing, setting up & triggering into a normal structural bet then it's simply viewed as just another technical knee-jerk occurance that carries no more relevance than any other.

Nothing should impact on the background framework or structure of your normal market application.
That is what offers you your edge.

[jcpfx]

Understood Jimmy.

Thank you once more for the reply. I myself do not have prior relevant experience in trading gaps, and I do not currently trade gaps because, just like you say, "if it's not part of the plan, it's not a consideration".

Cheers!

[kipper]

glad to hear that someone is getting some fun out of Cable...I, unfortunately, have received 2 stop losses.
I'd really like to hear your thoughts and understand where you entered the trades...a little frustrated today

Don't lose sight or focus of the trendier pairs pulling back & setting up with continuation potential jcp.
AUDCAD & EURAUD hooked nicely via their hourly charts yesterday at prior areas of support & resistance into european trade.
GBPCAD is still honouring it's current trend & moving cleanly in stair-step fashion.
AUDJPY & AUDUSD look like clicking back into gear at current levels too.

I'm not suggesting profit can't to be extracted from these ranging type conditions, because 2Taps clearly demonstrates otherwise, but until you're either experienced enough with your approach or very familiar with a defined set up or two it might be easier to stick with the clearer technical visuals & practice becoming comfortable with the hooks & triggers on those set ups.

[jcpfx]

glad to hear that someone is getting some fun out of Cable...I, unfortunately, have received 2 stop losses.
I'd really like to hear your thoughts and understand where you entered the trades...a little frustrated today

Don't lose sight or focus of the trendier pairs pulling back & setting up with continuation potential jcp.
AUDCAD & EURAUD hooked nicely via their hourly charts yesterday at prior areas of support & resistance into european trade.
GBPCAD is still honouring it's current trend & moving cleanly in stair-step fashion.
AUDJPY & AUDUSD look like clicking back into gear at current levels too.

I'm not suggesting profit can't to be extracted from these ranging type conditions, because 2Taps clearly demonstrates otherwise, but until you're either experienced enough with your approach or very familiar with a defined set up or two it might be easier to stick with the clearer technical visuals & practice becoming comfortable with the hooks & triggers on those set ups.

Good Morning Kipper,

thanks for the encouragement! I did get some fun out of GbpCad yesterday and my chart is posted below. It was exactly the same play as Cable, but the UsdCad break higher helped GbpCad rise much more than GbpUsd. Today I would expect the whole 5420/50 zone to hold and give an entry for another trip to at least 5490.


1H chart

I must say that AudUsd & NzdUsd are two pairs that I'm really BAD at Trading. I think there are 2 main reasons for it: the average daily range (I like to play the more volatile pairs as I am still having trouble staying in a trade for more than 4-6 hours) and the fact that I am trying to play it safe and only play the 7.30 am - 16.00 CET shift. AudUsd & NzdUsd don't always look good to me during those hours...because naturally their local session is when I'm sleeping.

Regarding the Euro pairs, I have very little experience trading after big gaps (that everyone & their dog say "usually fill" on the newsletters i'm subscribed to) and given that the uncertainty on Cyprus still exists, I have decided to stay away from the trouble and play Gbp instead.

If I may enquire, what's your particular thought process when flipping coins in these conditions?

Thanks Kipper, and may the pips be with you today!

[kipper]

Today I would expect the whole 5420/50 zone to hold and give an entry for another trip to at least 5490.

You called that support level nicely, hope you managed to leg back into it again!

what's your particular thought process when flipping coins in these conditions?

I’m not a huge fan of range trading jcp. I know there are one or two here who can turn their hand to it, but it's not a style that appeals to me.
I much prefer to sit & wait for prices to click back into a dominant trend wave & pick it up via the set ups & triggers presented here.

Same with gaps.
For example, if price happens to be trending up & it gaps down into a previously identified area of support & resistance then I’ll trade it back in line with the trend providing it offers me a high probability trigger, but that’s the only occasion I’ll play gaps.
If the gap extends in the oppositie direction then I'll step aside & look at something else.
If nothing else is setting up I'll wait patiently until it does.
Gone are the days of excitedly chasing trades all over the shop or looking for something to trade everyday.

[jcpfx]

Today I would expect the whole 5420/50 zone to hold and give an entry for another trip to at least 5490.

You called that support level nicely, hope you managed to leg back into it again!

Uhm...I may sound like someone looking for excuses not to pull the trigger...but I thought that entering right before important news events was a 50-50 bet at best...a real coin flip!

I knew the odds were mostly for a return to 5490: higher low than yesterday, 15min pin right at the bottom of a fast move down, with space to move..and to be totally candid, I had opened my order entry terminal setting a stop entry 1 pip above the pin's high with a stop at 5400. But then I thought: even the pros don't enter right before the news..only newbies do.

Looking elsewhere: is UsdCad on anybody's radar from the long side off 1.0240s today? I'm not in it (went for a walk after seeing GbpCad -_-) but was wondering if anyone would have a long bias on it yet.

Cheers!