Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

It's always a 50/50 punt stepping in ahead of data jcp.
Market was expecting (& to some degree priced in) a positive number, but evidently not that positive.
You're always going to get knee-jerk spikes on the back of under or over consensus releases. That's one of the drawbacks of intraday trading.

I'd file that one under "one of those occasions"....it could just as easily had gone the other way & you'd be looking at an acceptable exit profit.
Watch it turn around & slide slowly in your original direction now!

Did you not have usd/cad as one of your higher priority candidates this week?
That one has been tacking on very acceptable mileage & was mentioned on here during Tuesday's exchanges.

Hi speedbump,

regarding UsdCad, I took the 1-2-3 entry on Wednesday morning at 1.0123 and rhode it up until a prior 15min swing low was broken in the evening, getting me out @ 1.0162. I had 1.0200 as an objective so I jumped back in yesterday morning on the 1-2-3 off 1.0175 and got out at 1.0200 a couple of 15min swings later.

This morning, I was just confused by the 4H candles from yesterday and stood down. Regarding UsdChf, I have a personal risk-aversion for the CHF pairs, for right or for wrong.

Regarding the stop out on EurAud, would you have put a stop right above the wicks as I did? Is it that my stops are too tight for this type of trading? It feels like the same treatment as GbpAud at the beginning of the week (posted it a couple of pages ago)... And regarding the data...yeah, the IFO is important and the market has been following fundamentals this week and even I was surprized on that data print...but it's not NFP or a central bank so i thought the risk reward was worth the try (i was aiming at a return to the o/n lows for starters, seeing that we are below last week's low and below yesterday's low).

Love to hear your thoughts

Thanks

[strobe]

I see that recently you're using the 60min + 15min hook...
has the simple 15min hook OR 1-2-3 gone out of fashion?

No, not at all.
it's the same background criteria
the same set up & trigger combination
just a case of utilizing whichever timeframe is offering the clearer signal.

stoch hook, 1-2-3, your own pin bar preference, any other preferred entry trigger are simply options.
the objective is to use that which suits the current circumstances.
it's all about using a proven, solid structural framework & adapting the triggers to suit the occasion. It's not like there's a bunch of confusing alternatives. It's only really 2 main triggers. You simply use the one that's offering the highest potential.

Today it's a hook on the 60/15min combo.
On Monday it might be a hook on the 60/5min combo.

[jcpfx]

It's only really 2 main triggers. You simply use the one that's offering the highest potential.

Today it's a hook on the 60/15min combo.
On Monday it might be a hook on the 60/5min combo.

It seems that I still diddn't quite grasp this concept...all the talk about 60/15 or 60/5 and I was thinking "60 primary/ 5 execution" and not "need a hook on the 60 as well as the hook on the 15min or 5 min charts". At least it's now clear that in order to get in we need AT LEAST a hook on the 1H frame (correct?)

So this would mean that any attempt (as my EurAud this morning) with only a 15min hook is sub-optimal.

Forgive me insisting, it's just that understanding the high-probability entry is really important for a trader that's still not totally confident as myself...

[kipper]

It seems that I still diddn't quite grasp this concept...all the talk about 60/15 or 60/5 and I was thinking "60 primary/ 5 execution" and not "need a hook on the 60 as well as the hook on the 15min or 5 min charts".

You're understanding & interpreting the basics just fine jcp.
It's not necessary at all to have both 60m & whichever sub-hourly timeframe you choose hooking up at the same time. It's simply the traders own personal preference to engage with at combination in place.

If you spend time observing the charts when price is moving in a strong directional trend, you'll notice that in the majority of occasions that price pulls back the stochastic is hooking up (or down) on the hourlies (4H or 1H, or in some instances, both) when it re-engages with the dominant trend.

It's not something new that has just recently been discussed or disclosed, it's referred to sporadically throughout the material, both here & on the TT threads over on Babypips. Some folks simply prefer to use that combination as added fuel whenever it sets up within the context of an aggressive shift up/down in price.

[jcpfx]

It seems that I still diddn't quite grasp this concept...all the talk about 60/15 or 60/5 and I was thinking "60 primary/ 5 execution" and not "need a hook on the 60 as well as the hook on the 15min or 5 min charts".

You're understanding & interpreting the basics just fine jcp.
It's not necessary at all to have both 60m & whichever sub-hourly timeframe you choose hooking up at the same time. It's simply the traders own personal preference to engage with at combination in place.

If you spend time observing the charts when price is moving in a strong directional trend, you'll notice that in the majority of occasions that price pulls back the stochastic is hooking up (or down) on the hourlies (4H or 1H, or in some instances, both) when it re-engages with the dominant trend.

It's not something new that has just recently been discussed or disclosed, it's referred to sporadically throughout the material, both here & on the TT threads over on Babypips. Some folks simply prefer to use that combination as added fuel whenever it sets up within the context of an aggressive shift up/down in price.

Thanks kipper, i appreciate the psychological help you (and the others this morning) are offering me. My experience (right or wrong) was that 1H hooks often (but not always) line up with 15min hooks. What I also must highlight is that the stochastic can be "fooled" easily (it's only a reading of the %-ile that price is at right now compared to the lookback period's price extension) and therefore between a hook and a 1-2-3 I definitely prefer the 1-2-3.

I have been using 15min hook/1-2-3 for pullbacks within the 4H trend that don't violate the HH/HL (LH/LL) cycle. I have been using 15min 1-2-3 and/or pin bars for the continuation shorts (i.e. Eurusd yesterday morning off 3270 - pls take a look and let me know your thoughts on that). I have been waiting for the 4H cycle to re-establish itself with the major trend if we are a long way from the 50sma (I use it instead of the 60sma) on the 4H chart and have violated the HH/HL (LH/LL) cycle but are butting against a prior sup/res zone, before looking for entries as stated above.

Today I ended up playing a 60/15 combo without even knowing it and got some help from the LTRO...and got some pips back.

I will definitely pay more attention to the 60/15 combo hook from now on and do some research in the past on where/how it acted.


4H

1H

15Min


Thanks for all the help today guys

[speedbump]

Hi speedbump,
Regarding the stop out on EurAud, would you have put a stop right above the wicks as I did? Is it that my stops are too tight for this type of trading? It feels like the same treatment as GbpAud at the beginning of the week (posted it a couple of pages ago)
Love to hear your thoughts

I doubt my thoughts are going to of much help jcp, but for what it's worth......

It's not for me or anyone else here to comment on your trading style, stops, targets or position sizing. That has to be determined & decided upon by you based on a set of criteria that you've thoroughly & sufficiently tested.

The only validation concerning your personal style & approach to trading these markets, the risk profile you adopt & your trading objectives will be mirrored in your bottom line.
That is the one changing & evolving constant from which everything is judged. As long as your equity curve is moving north (be it smoothly or not) & making positive progress, then nothing anyone thinks or say's makes a scrap of difference.
If it's not moving north then your trading logs will or should highlight inefficiencies or weaknesses that require addressing along the way.

Obviously experience, available capital & time allotment will heavily dictate & influence that data & outcome.
There will also be additional variables such as psychological & temperament issues to address & incorporate.
Those factors are very individual & personal & will impact greatly on a person's ability to progress & the pace to which that progress ensues.

I don't prepare, set up or trigger trades the same way you do, & you don't go through that process the same way as Joe or Carll or Sarah does.
We're all looking at the very same concept & background information, but experiencing very different outcomes based on our own internal processing abilities, experience, risk profiles, objectives & styles.

It's nigh on impossible to suggest or advise another individual to do or use something the same way you do unless you have a very detailed breakdown & understanding of what makes that person tick.

This type of interactive environment most definitely has its limitations.
Discussing generics & foundational structure is certainly beneficial & proactive, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty, the emphasis has to shift to the individual to incorporate, utilize & take full responsibility for how its processed.

[jcpfx]

Thanks for the thoughts Speedbump, words of wizdom are never wasted...

[strobe]

Sterling will be high on the agenda next week following moody's downgrade.
The two standout pairs for me are shorting pullbacks on gbpusd providing price rotates back & remains anywhere below 1.5320 & gbpaud, same deal below 1.4830
If either of those levels are violated I'll stand aside & observe the resulting price action before considering any further bets.



I've also moved the following pairs onto my working template as high probability opportunities for early next week & will select them based on the appropriate set ups at the time.
usdcad long on pullbacks whilst it trades anywhere above 1.0150
audcad, same deal (long) above 1.0500
eurusd, same deal (short) below 1.3250
euraud, same deal (short) below 1.2850
Again, if any of those levels are violated I'll go to neutral & await more information on the state of play.

[shona123]

Hey guys,
Just back from a brief vacation & having had a quick flick through the menu I've pulled out a couple more potentially attractive candidates to add to strobe's juicy pot!
I quite like where CADJPY is hanging out going into next week.
It's dropped through a solid month long support zone, printing lower tops into the bargain, re-tested the 92 handle & slipped again last week.
I'll definitely keep this pair in my sights for any renewed slippage from current levels back towards that 92 figure.
If it fails to cap it on a move back up then all continuation short bets are off for the time being.


The 2nd pair I'll be keeping tabs on next week alongside strobe's selection is AUDCHF.
It finally pushed above a week long resistance barrier late last week, supported at the .9500 round number & I'm keen to see if it holds that highlighted breakout level on any further re-tests.
Again, I'll be tracking a continuation bet anywhere from current levels back towards the .9550-60 b/o zone.

[jcpfx]

Nothing to add! Strobe & Shona already led the way!

Good Luck to all going into the week!