Technical Templates

[castor]

Hello guys.
It has been awhile!
Had some success trading this simple strategy Thanks to everyone here. But I think I can still improve!

I went back to read some of the older posts, and I came across this "time out" period that Carll mentioned, whereby he exits the trade when it dosen't move in his direction after a period of time after entry before it hits his SL. But I find this hard to grasp, when is the time or rather what do we need to See, in order for us to confidently say "Ok, its time to get out of this trade!" ?

Because none of us would want to get out of a trade prematurely and see it bursting into our desired direction the next min. right?
I've noticed that price (especially on the sub hourly timeframes like the 15Min) likes to consolidate and hang around levels of significance before it decides to move in a direction after either the bull or bears gets absorbed, so by saying that if we enter and price dosent move in our direction for awhile, we exit the trade. In this case, we will be exiting a lot of trades prematurely, am I right to say that?

From what little time I have traded so far, I found that price quite rarely, moves in my desired direction immediately. It will usually hang around there going up and down until it finally decides to move on (in the point of view of the 15Min Timeframe)
Sometimes, it will even go into negative profit territory for 10 or so pips before it goes quickly in my direction. So by exiting these trades early, I will be missing a lot of these trades?

[Eidriel]

Hi everyone and bigdog

I have the same views as bigdog with regards to the EURUSD trade.

Seen on the 4H chart, bearish cycle is intact as long as the LH is not taken out.

I will be waiting for a 1H Stoch hook. anywhere in the labeled region indicated on the 1H chart.

To bigdog and everyone else, my question is, what else will you guys be looking for in that region, other than a Stoch hook for better confirmation?

Thanks everyone

[round number]

Not the best example of a trade as its bearly trending/cycling anywhere at the moment.

Agreed, it's not in any hurry to zip anywhere at the moment.
I'm not particularly enthused by anything out there today bigdog. It's not really my kind of playing field, & judging by the lack of activity on the thread this week, most of the others are of the same inclination.
Think I'll sit & wait until something tasty pops out & offers a bite!

To bigdog and everyone else, my question is, what else will you guys be looking for in that region, other than a Stoch hook for better confirmation?

The same thing I do with any other pair I'm lining up on my radar Eidriel....failure to push higher indicated by a lower high & a lower low on the sub hourly timeframes.
There isn't much else of any real value to consider is there?

I came across this "time out" period that Carll mentioned, whereby he exits the trade when it dosen't move in his direction after a period of time after entry before it hits his SL. But I find this hard to grasp, when is the time or rather what do we need to See, in order for us to confidently say "Ok, its time to get out of this trade!" ?

Unless that particular aspect appeals to you & is an intrinsic part of your trade plan castor, then ignore it.
Carll has very specific preferences in play that suits his particular style, risk profile & objectives, as do (or should) we all.

We each have our own reasons for cutting, paring off or continuing with a bet which will be wholly based on the pre-trade plan & the current market conditions & circumstances. And that criteria will be constantly changing due to the increase or decrease in volatility & market influences at the time.

I would focus on what's working for you & ensure you're familiarising yourself with the basics every time you consider placing a bet.

[bigdog]

Great stuff RN.

Sub hourly + failure to push higher (eg 1-2-3 on the 5 or 15 minute chart).

I will also look at 1H stoch hook if the stop isnt too far away and profit target (eg 67% ADR) gives a good risk reward.

My preference is to take trades within the first few hours of London open. That leaves just over an hour for me. I am in Australia so its nearly 9pm here......

[Eidriel]

Alright thank you both round number and bigdog!

[jcpfx]

Happy Friday to all,

after doing lots of studying and practice, I came to the conclusion that what I wanted to do and what I'm good at doing (i.e. what I can do) are two different things.
I wanted to be a professional coin flipper that follows trends like Jesse Livermore, JJay, Tess, GoldTop & all the other big guys.
I still had some serious problems in understanding what I was not seeing and/or confusing in the approach. For example:

1) if the SMA50/60 is heading up but the 4H cycle is down and I get the "feeling" there's a nice intraday play to the short side, I'll take it. The daily open & prior day's High/Low are helpful in attempting these "fades".

2) Sometimes there's a "fade" off of the prior day's high/low print in line with the trend, even if there's no real "high probability setup". When i get a feeling the fade is workable, I'll take it. Yesterday I took a Cable 15min pin short off the top of the consolidation range, that was later broken on Carney's open-mouth intervention. Today, the 50 sma is still pointing down on Cable BUT the cycle is up and today it gave a 1-2-3 long entry that generated a nice profit.


GbpUsd 4H


GbpUsd 15Min

Here is what my coin-flipping has produced on the Euro recently:


EurUsd 4H


EurUsd 1H

And today an opportunity on EurJpy short even if the SMA is still rising:


EurJpy4H


EurJpy 15Min

So....I know that many here will probably banish me from the thread after seeing these trades. My point that I hope will help Eidriel is that you need to also "feel" the trade. By staring at charts you develop an intuition for what's "right" and what's "risky" in your own experience. I have learned to follow my instinct and possibly unify the instinct with the chart signals.

For example, I love fading. So I found a way to fade with some rationale: the EurUsd 1H pin a few days ago was a 1H counter trend pin right smack on a Daily flip. That's a setup for playing CT. I like it. I play it. It may not be high probability but my "instincts" seem to work in choosing tops/bottoms in a way.

I'm not advocating that you blindly follow your gut. What I did was write my "instinct trades" in a journal and see how good my "gut" was. After allowing it to show me that it has some street smarts, I let it guide me somewhat.

I hope some of this makes sense.

I also welcome feedback on the trades shown above. I traded them realtively "light-hearted" given the fact that I was "feeling" they were the right trades to take. It really has been an important week for me, and I'm happy to share my thoughts & charts with the people that helped me get here.

Have a great weekend!

[strobe]

after doing lots of studying and practice, I came to the conclusion that what I wanted to do and what I'm good at doing (i.e. what I can do) are two different things.
I know that many here will probably banish me from the thread after seeing these trades.

No-one is going to banish or ignore you jcp

It's been said many times before on here that the material presented is simply a guide or template from which to construct your own individual model used to prepare, execute & manage your trades.
What the experienced guys tried to do is encourage, advise & suggest certain criteria that might assist in developing a solid, practical & logical framework.

I don't use everything presented here, neither do at least 2 other guys I regularly correspond with. We each take what appeals to us based on our individual styles, risk profiles & trading objectives & use the minimum amount of material necessary to get the job done.

If you're happy utilizing tools you've tested or discovered elsewhere & you only need to use 10% of the stuff shared here to make a difference or add relevance, then good for you. It's all about compiling a model that fits your style, suits your comfort levels & matches up with your risk appetite.

I also welcome feedback on the trades shown above.
I traded them realtively "light-hearted" given the fact that I was "feeling" they were the right trades to take.

I'm not sure you'll receive much relevant feedback on the above to be honest jcp as no-one here uses that approach to trade the markets.

That's not casting a slight on you using it, but it bares no relevance to the theme & core content of the thread.
This stuff pivots around using a logical technical structure & sequence to prepare & set up trades.

I'm sure I'm not the only one here who is pleased you've worked out some kind of happy medium & hope it offers you a balanced view & platform to grind out positive returns!

[jcpfx]

Hey Strobe,

the studying is continuously progressing, day after day. I just found that there was something that continued to confuse me (something that I'm still not able to fully qualify unfortunately) regarding mainly the trend & cycle on the primary TF because I was refraining from taking trades that had some other "rationale" to them even if they appealed to me, given my personal experience.

I only wanted to suggest something that you were able to explain in other words:

"We each take what appeals to us based on our individual styles, risk profiles & trading objectives & use the minimum amount of material necessary to get the job done"

The caveat is that one must take it upon himself to stay disciplined and not deviate (too much) from the most logical of setups. Again, it's a matter of "what fits" the personality. Personally, if a currency pair travels it's ADR or almost all it's ADR in line with trend, hits yesterday's high/low print and formes a nice Pin, I'll take the trade for a quick ride back down intraday. The same applies to situations like Cable on thursday: it becomes a range play, fading the edge of the range in line with the general trend. To me these trades have some logic, even if they evidently carry more risk than trades that have all cycles pointing in the same direction.

I'm really enthusiastic about the steps made with you're encouragement. The fact alone that I have gone from "having to follow the rules" to "finding the rules that fit me" while continuing to stay above par on my account, is giving me good vibes.

That said, there's still a mountain of work to be done. And I think I'll refrain from additional ranting and get back to studying.

Good Luck to all, going into next week.

[Eidriel]

Hello jcpfx

I lol'd at the banish part Thanks for sharing your research with us and congratulations on your wins!

Recently I have removed the reliance on the 60 SMA, and just trade off the 4H cycle. As long as the 4H cycle going in our direction is somewhat established (have made a few HH/HL or LH/LL), or even better, trading below prior week low, I will take it!

For example, the EURUSD and EURJPY short trades certainly did tick the checklist in my book on the 4H, and I would take both for a ride down (I personally was in the EURUSD trade, and am still currently holding on to it)

One suggestion I can think of is, if you are unsure of a trade (say a countertrend trade) maybe you can just trade half of your usual position size for that trade, so you dont feel too bad if price goes in your way, and not too painful if the trade washes out. Just a suggestion

[kipper]

I agree with strobe.
The only way any of us are going to find any consistent success is by experimenting with the core structure & molding it to our own preferences.
We will all use the approach differently because we'll all have different objectives, time availability & different risk appetites.
I don't use the material the same as zilly, who in turn will trade differently to Jack & he will have a very unique outlook to him.

I only now have the moving average visible on my 4 hour chart & that's there simply to offer me a quick visual when I scroll my list of instruments.
Like you Eidriel, I only look to enter on an established hourly (mine is the 60min) cycle in sync with the 240 min bias.

As long as we each eventually find something that fits our unique trading personality we'll be more inclined to develop the required patience & discipline to see it through.
A lot of this game is trial & error.
But a sound & logical foundation certainly helps make the trial & error a little more bearable.