Technical Templates

[Se7en]

for the first time in my (short) trading life I actually added to a position yesterday...and until late, my face was something like this
if the compounding bug got into me, it's thanks to all of your inputs and positivity

ha ha ha. Your willingness to take onboard & action the positive aspects of the concept is to be applauded & congratulated jcp & well done on that trade!!
But if you're experiencing those kinds of emotional responses when executing any part of it then you're either pushing the envelope (risk or bet size) or not wholly comfortable with the reasons for executing the deal & your next paragraph more or less confirms why...

I would like to know if anyone picked up the euro on the retrace last evening because it was not
a high probability entry for a couple of reasons:
1) time of day (3-4 pm CET)
2) adr already travelled by EurUsd

Those 2 elements alone are enough to deter most on here (including me) from even considering an entry.
As you've correctly highlighted, it's a very low probability scenario, so why would we even consider taking action?
Some of the guys have already commented that there are plenty of occasions during a typical week & month where the opportunity to engage in a high probability set up will present itself across pairs & currencies that are exhibiting the required behavior traits we consistently & successfully identify.

The toughest part of this game is developing discipline & patience.
Unless you can marry those 2 elements up with the successful structure & set up/trigger mechanisms presented here, you're going to struggle to make any consistent headway in this game.

Just think how much more confident, assured & enthused you'll feel when you bring those critically important elements together & achieve a positive, high probability outcome, as opposed to pushing your luck in a lower probability dice roll.

I've been playing the Euro currency via EURGBP lately.
speedbump referred to it in one of his posts back on January 8th along with GBPNZD & NZDJPY as cleaner candidates to engage with into early new year action.
If you take a look at the 4 & 1 hour charts of EURGBP you'll see why that's still the case.
Plus of course, the higher probability set ups will develop during the early european trading session.

[strobe]

I would like to know if anyone picked up the euro on the retrace last evening (I know strobe was stalking it...) because it was not
a high probability entry for a couple of reasons:

Not me either.
Although it's one of the pairs on my watchlist jcp, I didn't & wouldn't trigger it under those circumstances for the very reasons you annotated in your post.
se7en makes some important observations in his post concerning discipline & opportunity risk & I concur with that outlook.

I'll also add my congratulations to the successful outcome of your add-in bet!
You're on the right track, just be careful how & when you decide to bring that tactic into play & stick to the positive elements of the approach such as high probability pre-trade identification/planning & execution deployment.

[jcpfx]

Thank you Sen7en & strobe for the feedback.

I am feeling a sort of "transition" from the sort of risk adverse mentality that a difficult year (survived without a sound structure to tackle the markets) has installed into me, to a keener sense of "risk" that can be readily quantified and qualified. The back&fourth posts yesterday & this morning have helped a lot in clearing up those aspects of my mentality.

I also felt an "urge" to cover the risk topic as I did feel "lucky" this week, and would like to substitute "luck" with "technique" in my trading.

It does, however, feel like I'm proceeding down the road to become a successful professional coin-flipper

Thanks to all of you

[jcpfx]

...i flipped my coin on EurCad this afternoon...

The reasoning starts with EurUsd...it has continued it's upward motion today and had retraced to the 3320s flip without changing the 4H cycle. Therefore I was prepared to enter long with a small stake given the time of day and the fact that it had butted against recent highs without piercing them.

I had also noticed that all the majors are generally suffering vs. USD except for EurUsd...so I thought "why bet on Euro vs. Usd when USD is clearly strong across the board, when I can play this Euro strength against other currencies?" and I went on the lookout for the major that was suffering most against USD. I found that UsdCad had just "woken up" today and had caught an aggressive bid.

I went long EurCad and closed on the 15min pin that closed at 16.00 CET + 43 pips. This has obviously been a very lucky week for me and I would love to go into the weekend with your thoughts on this trade.


4H chart


15Min chart

[zilly]

I went long EurCad and closed on the 15min pin that closed at 16.00 CET + 43 pips.
This has obviously been a very lucky week for me and I would love to go into the weekend with your thoughts on this trade.

Although I have it on my list of candidates it's not one I trade intraday jcp, but it looks like it ticked all the usual pre-trade criteria, so providing it offered you acceptable risk at entry with decent forward profit potential, that's about as good as you can plan for.

I probably trigger as many intraday bets per month as you do per week, so it wouldn't have interested me today, but like I said as long as you can fully justify your reasons for considering a bet & it at least complies with the basic structure, you're good to go.

[kyle morgan]

I think zilly is being politely diplomatic jcp....
Tut tut tut (smacks the back of jcp’s wrist & hands him a brochure for gamblers anonymous)

All I'm going to say is:
Friday afternoon...
A traditional time for position squaring...
Lowest liquidity of the day & week....
Which prompts a jerky, hard slip to the lows of the day...

I don't know about you, but in my book that combination doesn't really rank as a particularly high odds intraday trading opportunity.
You're unecessarily pushing that envelope again me thinks!

Just because the brokers are still making prices doesn't mean you have to take them.

[jcpfx]

LOL! I knew there had to be some sort of issue with the coin flip!

Bear with me guys, during this trial & error phase of being able to comply with all the rules...

[Eidriel]

Trying out this short bet on GBPNZD. Hopefully will pull this off

Let the charts do the talking!

Comments are welcome

[goldtop]

Trying out this short bet on GBPNZD.
Let the charts do the talking!

Most of the charts our there at the moment Eidriel aren't talking very much sense at all though
Sterling is about the only one kicking up anything remotely worthwhile.
The pair you're looking at + GBPAUD & GBPCAD are trying hard to offer a morsel or two. The spotlight pair at the moment is definitely EURGBP & the cycle on that one stays very strong above .8350 with .8260 focusing the more relevant support/bid zone for longs on this leg up.

Apart from that it's pretty dour at the moment for the bias/cycle approach.

[Eidriel]

I got to agree, the other pairs on my watchlist, such as EURCHF, USDJPY are all literally crawling around