Technical Templates

[kipper]

the Jpy has been leading the way yesterday & this morning but the more it falls into prior support, the more the odds favor a retrace.
Bias is shifting in my view so if we bounce on UsdJpy I'll be looking for shorts in the 88.80s.

That's how I'm seeing (yen strength) it too.
I like gbpjpy, chfjpy & cadjpy.
All 3 are cycling down with clear lower highs (142.0, 95.40 & 89.70) defending & maintaining the short bias into today's action.

I'm looking to key into sub hourly short triggers on pullbacks below those levels.

[jcpfx]

Hey Kipper,

yeah, GbpJpy is clearer than EurJpy but I also feel that UsdJpy is playable and just as clear as the others. Not a big fan (yet) of getting back into CHF pairs even if they have moved well this week taking some pressure off the SNB. Staying away from Cad pairs too, as UsdCad is dormient and I absolutely hate it because it can go either way even if odds would tecnically have it to the upside, thus favouring your short Cad Jpy plan.

I like 142.50s better than 142 for GbpJpy for the time being...but the general idea is the same: short on pullbacks up there. Just may not be today because as long as equities weigh on the action, it'll be tough to climb back up there. I still have a feeling that faders on ES and Dow want to see the initial 2013 gap closed...

[kipper]

I just do all the usual background stuff & then let the set up & trigger mechanism take care of the rest.
Filter a selection of the best looking opportunities down to a couple of likely candidates & wait for the signal to get onboard.

I'll take these types of entries all day long.
Decent location, acceptable risk & plenty of room to move forward to first initial target area.
If it doesn't want to play ball my stop will get me out with minimal damage.

[kipper]

Price locates & consolidates the initial target (exit) area at the day's lows.
1.5:1 intraday reward/risk pullback bet.

[jcpfx]

You nailed it kipper! Those are well earned pips ...I missed it as I was expecting a stronger pullback to 142.50...but it makes sense: yesterday's low print became today's 15min flip...

Good stuff!

[kipper]

I missed it as I was expecting a stronger pullback to 142.50...
but it makes sense: yesterday's low print became today's 15min flip...

To be honest, I don't even bother referencing those obvious technical occurances anymore as the guys have done an excellent job of drilling them into us, but you've spotted it, so it's probably worth noting it for those viewers less familiar with observing & noting these repetitively consistent & important technical levels.

Prior session high-low
Prior day high-low
Prior week high-low
I've lost count of the number of times price bounces & reacts off these levels. And when it does so whilst moving in sync with a clear bias/cycle the confirmatory activity is usually pretty solid.

[jcpfx]

Yeah Kipper,

you played by the book on that and I evidently need to practice more. I see the levels, I evidence them on the chart but still fail to understand the context properly sometimes.

For what it's worth, this was my trade today:


EurUsd 4H chart evidencing the upward bias still intact and the support zone still in play


15Min chart showing the reason behind the trade (for right or for wrong..comments are welcome!)

1) Finding support at yesterday's low print, and push back up.
2) 1-2-3 formation
3) Risk reward 1:2

[strobe]

For what it's worth, this was my trade today:
EurUsd 4H chart evidencing the upward bias still intact and the support zone still in play

15Min chart showing the reason behind the trade (for right or for wrong..comments are welcome!)
Finding support at yesterday's low print, and push back up.

I don't disagree with the bias or the area which you've identified jcp, they're all completely valid. The one thing I don't like about eur/usd this week is the fade off Monday's high & the ensuing 60min bearish cycle.

Although it's on my watchlist as a probable long candidate, it doesn't make the top 3 yet.
It'll begin getting warmer (for me) if & when it pushes back above 1.3340-50 & begins to look as though it's serious about establishing the next higher low cycle leg.

This current 1.3250-70 support channel from last Thursday & Friday is critical to maintaining & holding a bullish tone this week.

[jcpfx]

I don't disagree with the bias or the area which you've identified jcp, they're all completely valid. The one thing I don't like about eur/usd this week is the fade off Monday's high & the ensuing 60min bearish cycle.

Although it's on my watchlist as a probable long candidate, it doesn't make the top 3 yet.
It'll begin getting warmer (for me) if & when it pushes back above 1.3340-50 & begins to look as though it's serious about establishing the next higher low cycle leg.

This current 1.3250-70 support channel from last Thursday & Friday is critical to maintaining & holding a bullish tone this week.

I would guess that this is a case where my entry in the 1-2-3 15min cycle is to be considered aggressive whereas waiting for the 60 min to cycle up would be more conservative? Or was it just blind luck?

[strobe]

Taking a view from their original material on Babypips, I prefer to witness intent when considering to take a bet jcp.
For me, that intent as far as eur/usd is concerned is to see at least one higher low/higher high cycle on the 60min chart after a period of retracement or a prolonged pullback.
That would offer me the minimum confirmation that seeking out a 15min or a 5min trigger was the higher probability play at current levels.

I like the fact it's currently being supported at this critical 1.3250-70 zone, but as yet it's failed to kick back up with any degree of confidence after this 150 pip slip from the months highs.
Compare the hourly background picture this morning on eur/usd with the gbp/jpy example that kipper annotated.
Which one offered the cleaner primary & secondary probability & likelier potential set up/trigger opportunity?

Price was already cycling down this morning on eur/usd when you pulled the trigger on that bet. I'm not suggesting it was a low risk play, because for all I know that type of scenario could be a consistently successful option for you, but if I'm considering pulling the trigger on a clear bias oriented background opportunity I want to place that bet when price is cycling in my direction right off the bat so I'm triggering with the pullback cycle already defined & in place.

The hourly bias was clearly in place this morning on gbp/jpy, so too was the sub-hourly cycle.
Those are the kind of higher probability bets I'm prepared to sit & wait for.
These days I have no problem at all in allowing anything less than those types of quality set ups to simply pass on by.

I'd rather place larger sized bets on higher probability opportunities, even if it means waiting a day or two longer for those bets to blip up on the radar.