Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Basically what you like to do is wait for a 1-2-3 entry where the cycle on the sub-hourly is pointing in your direction, correct?

Yes.
So in your specific example I would have preferred to open up my gbp/usd chart this morning to see the Tokyo low intact & price pressuring either yesterday's high or the Tokyo high.

At that point, if the 15min offered up a hook extreme and/or a potential 1-2-3, that would be my higher probability opportunity to get long, because I would also have a 15m higher swing low to place my stop behind.

with the type of setup we are playing, we are looking to enter in the direction of the primary TF (4H for me) off the secondary TF (15min for me)

Correct, but at the moment (& based on where price is currently trading) I don't see the 4H bias on that pair as bullish.
In my view it's neutral & thus I rank it as lower probability.

I do however like the look of eur/gbp to the long side. The 4H has printed a couple of recent higher lows & the 15min is establishing a clean cycle motion offering reasonable risk placement.
That's the type of price action I prefer to witness when considering placing a bet.

The price behaviour on gbp/nzd & nzd/jpy also typify the above criteria.

Ok..maybe you've led me to discover another key to the strategy...so here goes..

Using the dual TF strategy, are we to anticipate the next high (downtrend) or low (uptrend) on the primary time frame basing ourselves on the obvious levels left by the prior price action (chart 1) and searching at that level for an entry (as my cable trade this morning) OR are we to react after the primary time frame has confirmed a certain candle on the Primary time frame as being a high (downtrend) or low (uptrend) and then look for triggers on the secondary time frame (chart 2) ?

As you may have guessed, I took for granted that we were to anticipate...

Chart 1 (anticipate?)


Chart 2 (react?)


Thanks a lot!

P.S. Was able to ride the second Cable trade and closed it before the ride downwards, taking my balance into positive territory for the day. PHEW

[speedbump]

To be honest jcp, I haven't had Cable on my watch list for the past 2 or 3 weeks, so personally I wouldn't be attempting to analyse it at all at current levels.

If you look at the last month's worth of data on that pair it's chopping around all over the place with no discernible bias either way.
If anything, it's closer to last week's lows than it is to last week's highs, so if I had a gun to my head I'd probably be looking for shorts rather than longs.

The very first thing these guys constantly remind us to do every time we're considering placing a bet is to discard those pairs displaying choppy or indecisive bias/trend behaviour & focus on those that are displaying smoother, more easily identifiable bias/cycle momentum.

In my view, Cable doesn't fit into the latter category.
If you're looking for a sterling pair offering much more clarity with established bias & cycle structure, check out nzd/gbp.
Compare that to Cable & ask yourself which one you'd prefer to be plotting a high probability entry on going into today's action.

[jcpfx]

To be honest jcp, I haven't had Cable on my watch list for the past 2 or 3 weeks, so personally I wouldn't be attempting to analyse it at all at current levels.

If you look at the last month's worth of data on that pair it's chopping around all over the place with no discernible bias either way.
If anything, it's closer to last week's lows than it is to last week's highs, so if I had a gun to my head I'd probably be looking for shorts rather than longs.

The very first thing these guys constantly remind us to do every time we're considering placing a bet is to discard those pairs displaying choppy or indecisive bias/trend behaviour & focus on those that are displaying smoother, more easily identifiable bias/cycle momentum.

In my view, Cable doesn't fit into the latter category.
If you're looking for a sterling pair offering much more clarity with established bias & cycle structure, check out nzd/gbp.
Compare that to Cable & ask yourself which one you'd prefer to be plotting a high probability entry on going into today's action.

Ok, i understand your point of view on the clarity part...but on the actual "tactics" of entry, which of the two options above best describes what we're looking for before selecting where to pull the trigger? Cable is just an example taken for purposes of clarity but please feel free to submit a chart of your own as an example...

[midgely88]

I don't recall ever reading where they mention the word anticipate jcp.
If you're filtering your primary bias instruments sufficiently enough to ensure you're executing with as cleaner a bias or trend as possible then there will be no need to anticipate anything.

You can bring your secondary timeframe into play to react to the cycle sequence on the primary chart & play pulbacks (with hooks if that's your preference) until the bias and/or cycle ends & flips over.

That's what speedbump meant by his earlier comments about Cable moving away from the tokyo high this morning into the european action.
If that pair was exhibiting a clean bullish bias you would expect prices to be supported with at least one higher low on the secondary (15m) timeframe, not be languising down well below the tokyo lows.

[jcpfx]

Maybe, ever since my Cable post last week where I failed to realize the bias was entirely downwards, I have gotten carreid away with trying to catch the cycle tops/bottoms on the 4H charts, as opposed to keeping the "easier" bias in mind (weekly open, daily open...if price is below/above both, it's clear...if it's in between, look for something clear)...

Have I nailed the point?

[speedbump]

Cable is just an example taken for purposes of clarity but please feel free to submit a chart of your own as an example...

I concur with midge's comments about not requiring to to anticipate anything jcp.
As he say's, if the filtering process is working efficiently & you're focusing solely on the cleaner, higher probability cyclical structure, the lower (secondary) timeframe triggers will simply be a mirror image (cyclical momentum) of the primary timeframe activity.

You can refer to my prior 3 pairs mentioned earlier to see what I'm referring to, & they are the only pairs out of a selection of 14 that are currently on my watch list.
eur/cad & gbp/aud are coming into focus, but apart from those 3 main pairs nothing else even remotely interests me at present.
I'll post up the gbp/nzd 4H & 15min charts as an example, but it's just the same structural cycle that you've seen dozens of times previously.

Obviously you're eager & enthusiastic to put this structure & framework into practice & that is only to be encouraged & acknowledged, but I get the impression that this enthusiasm could well be resulting in you forcing the analysis & trade selection just a tad.
Unfortunately you can't force-fit these templates to suit your desire to engage every day with the market.
You have to allow the price action to establish itself first then slot the template into place once the conditions are favourable, & that won't happen every day.

I check my pair selection every evening leading into the day's close & they're all on a default of 4H timeframes.
If I can't spot a likely trend or bias within 5 seconds of accessing a chart I immediately flip to the next one.
I'm only interested in analysing the very cleanest, high probability scenarios & if that means waiting 3, 4 or 5 days for something to pop up on the radar, then so be it.
I certainly don't trade every day & sometimes don't trade every week either because the opportunities aren't always there to execute low risk/high probability bets.

4H highlighting the usual bias information.
I've marked off the 9280 area as the most immediate violation level. If price trades through & holds above that level all continuation short bets are off.


The secondary 15min chart with the relevent information required to plot the likely pullback extremes indicating high probability entry points.
Merely a mirror image of the higher (primary) timeframe picture.

[jcpfx]

Thank you for the example speedbump. Eager to flip the coin? Not really...it's more like being enthusiastic about an approach that unifies the things it took me time to find on my own... All we really know are levels & odds, nothing more. It was a huge relief to see everything put together in an orderly way so yeah, i'm enthusiastic about it! I'm not looking to force trades, i'm just clearing my mind of doubts using my own errors as examples...

Please excuse me if i'm being a slow learner...

[Eidriel]

Hello jcpfx,

I think I kind of know what you mean there.

For me, I may not be present to observe for 15M 123 or Stoch hook formation in our desired direction, instead what I do is I will wait for a single 4H candlestick to close in the direction of our desired move. That is kinda the confirmation for me.

What I see may be the problem with your trades is that you may be a tad bit aggressive with your trades. You seem to be trading with every 4H cycle (correct me if I am wrong ). But if it were up to me, I would only trade 4H cycles that are in the direction of the general trend/bias.

You may want to use a SMA to easily determine what is the likely trend / bias, and trade 4H cycles in that direction. If you were to use an SMA on the GBPUSD trade you posted, it is still towards the downside, so I would not be looking for longs.

Hope this helps

[speedbump]

It was a huge relief to see everything put together in an orderly way so yeah, i'm enthusiastic about it!

I totally empathize with that comment.
It also seriously sparked my interest when I first located their stuff & then got linked to this site. But the over-riding message I took from it was the one regarding high probability set ups v/s low probability scenarios, which is why I made the comment in my previous post.

This stuff is very powerful but only when we restrict ourselves to trading when the conditions are in our favour more than they are the brokers. Unless we carefully filter the potential opportunities we're simply making life more difficult for ourselves by reducing the odds & diluting the returns.

Believe me, I learnt that tough lesson myself when first starting to trade this approach & don't want to see you or other new participants fall into the same trap. Fortunately, it didn't cost me financially or emotionally, merely had me running to stand still for a prolonged period.
The way they've engineered the dual timeframe & cycle definition structure prevents any significant damage to an account, but not filtering the low from the high odds scenarios will cost time & cause persistent frustration.

I'm not looking to force trades, i'm just clearing my mind of doubts using my own errors as examples

Ok, that's fair enough.
I obviously misinterpreted your eagerness for pushing the envelope on some of these pre-trade analysis set ups.

Please excuse me if i'm being a slow learner...

I don't think you're a slow learner at all jcp.
In fact quite the opposite. The huge benefit of being able to interact & share views of a concept, is the feedback.
That alone will save someone massive amounts of wasted time trying to work stuff out for themselves.

I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that the hardest part of this game is instilling patience & discipline.
It's very easy to "see what we want to see" in any chart we open up every day & convince ourselves that a valid opportunity exists to make money.
The difficult part is walking away from such instances & only partaking when the very best set ups reveal themselves.

That's the one aspect I've personally struggled with since starting to trade & still fall into the trap every now & again.
Thankfully re-reading this thread on a regular basis, taking note of the more experienced guys comments & examples & always working to a very strict pre-trade plan is helping to firm up the discipline.

[jcpfx]

Hello jcpfx,

... you may be a tad bit aggressive with your trades. You seem to be trading with every 4H cycle (correct me if I am wrong ).

Hope this helps

Guilty as charged!

Thanks for the comment Eidrel