Technical Templates

[Eidriel]

I just went through the pairs, and to me there only seem to be 1 high probability trade to take on, which is shorting EUR/NZD with a target at the 1.5500 area.
And also, what do you all think on going long with this CADCHF pair?

Drinks are on you tonight Eidriel if you decided to leg into either or both of those two bias oriented pairs today!
NFP just injected a secondary turbo boost into them, especially the CADCHF bet!

Haha! yes midgely88, extremely satisfying when things go your way

Thanks kipper for the heads up on that news report

Joe, ah thanks for clearing my mind on that, so a clear and obvious reaction S/R level beats a round number. I do not fully understand what you mean by "a clear cycle into and away from the zone of conflict" though. I know it means clear higher lows and higher highs or lower lows and lower highs, but does the cycle need to show on the 1H or on the micro timeframes? For example, on the 1H chart, if the bias is up, but price is making lower highs and lower lows as it retrace to a key level, is it advisable to go long once the microtimeframe start to show a higher high higher low cycle, or should I wait till the 1H shows at least 1 higher high and higher low?

Thank you!

[Joe Whitehorse]

I do not fully understand what you mean by "a clear cycle into and away from the zone of conflict" though.
I know it means clear higher lows and higher highs or lower lows and lower highs, but does the cycle need to show on the 1H or on the micro timeframes

Either or.
It's very much dependent on, & associated with an individual's risk tolerance & trade objectives.

For example, on the 1H chart if the bias is up, but price is making lower highs and lower lows as it retraces to a key level, is it advisable to go long once the micro timeframe starts to show a higher high higher low cycle....

Yes, if your risk attitude or tolerance is spicier or slightly more aggressive.
There's nothing wrong with adopting this approach particularly as the primary bias (in your example comments) is still indicating a bullish tone.

......or should I wait till the 1H shows at least 1 higher high and higher low?

If your risk attitude is slightly more conservative, then this is the alternative approach to the one suggested above.

Both are logical, common sense options which adhere to the basic concept & structure.
The only difference being each individual's confort levels & risk profile.

By the way, well done again on the successful identification process of those 2 pairs yesterday

[Eidriel]

I do not fully understand what you mean by "a clear cycle into and away from the zone of conflict" though.
I know it means clear higher lows and higher highs or lower lows and lower highs, but does the cycle need to show on the 1H or on the micro timeframes

Either or.
It's very much dependent on, & associated with an individual's risk tolerance & trade objectives.

For example, on the 1H chart if the bias is up, but price is making lower highs and lower lows as it retraces to a key level, is it advisable to go long once the micro timeframe starts to show a higher high higher low cycle....

Yes, if your risk attitude or tolerance is spicier or slightly more aggressive.
There's nothing wrong with adopting this approach particularly as the primary bias (in your example comments) is still indicating a bullish tone.

......or should I wait till the 1H shows at least 1 higher high and higher low?

If your risk attitude is slightly more conservative, then this is the alternative approach to the one suggested above.

Both are logical, common sense options which adhere to the basic concept & structure.
The only difference being each individual's confort levels & risk profile.

By the way, well done again on the successful identification process of those 2 pairs yesterday

Ah! I fully understand now Thanks Joe! Just things that I picked up from this thread, hehe.

By the way, the spread for EURNZD on OANDA is 20pips as it closed on Friday, seem a bit on the high side no?

[Se7en]

By the way, the spread for EURNZD on OANDA is 20pips as it closed on Friday, seem a bit on the high side no?

At or near the close of the week spreads widen (sometimes significantly) on some platforms as liquidity dries up, particularly on the crosses Eidriel.
Just as long as you're not paying those kinds of spreads at normal business times during the week.

[Eidriel]

By the way, the spread for EURNZD on OANDA is 20pips as it closed on Friday, seem a bit on the high side no?

At or near the close of the week spreads widen (sometimes significantly) on some platforms as liquidity dries up, particularly on the crosses Eidriel.
Just as long as you're not paying those kinds of spreads at normal business times during the week.

Ah. That explains it. Thanks Se7en

[castor]

Anyone got any positive result today? Seems like volumes are really thinning? When will this last until, beginning of January?

[strobe]

Mid-to-late December & late July through to end of August are the lowest volume periods in the markets castor so you have to employ even more patience than normal when attempting to set up & trigger bets.

I only triggered 3 deals last week & nothing as yet today.
There's nothing driving prices this morning. Yen has had a little pop to the upside, but nothing really to write home about & everything else is netting off.
Greek re-financing & US fiscal cliff is all about factored into the current (fair value) price, so unless something out of the ordinary happens the market will just go after close quarter stops either side of current range barriers.

According to the guys comments on this thread during previous years, the xmas low liquidity period extends out to the end of the 1st week of January.

[2Taps]

Anyone got any positive result today? Seems like volumes are really thinning?

I think strobe hit it on the head....most of the good/bad news is already priced in & with volumes gradually decreasing into year end as more & more firms close out their books early, it will either be tight rangebound days or spikey, over-extended one's

I placed 2 b/e bets, 1 losing one & 1 winner last week, finishing up for just a little over 2.6% profit.
I doubt I'll be doing much now between here & the 2nd week of January.

[jcpfx]

Good Evening all,

been doing some FX-Mas chores lately and have been staying away from the markets mostly. I hope all of you have had a great year & are proceeding to limit risk/stay out of trouble/play safe here in December.

For Castor, and others that, like myself, have found this thread only a short while back, here are my 2 cents (wich I had more to spare but it hasn't been a great year for me unfortunetly ):

1) It's not about huge winning trades or "all or nothing" bets. It's about consistency (using the same tested method over & over) & longevity (survive, study, understand, act, rinse&repeat).

2) The guys&gals on this thread have summed up all the relevant material that you need in order to thrive (not just survive) in the markets. My own results have improved by reading through the pages - even if many have seen that my style differs a little. So if you're not profitable on demo yet, don't go live. Go back to page 1 and read through. Use your demo platform to go back in time and watch the charts that are posted. Understand what was going on and why the guys said what they did. Understand the perspective. Study, remain profitable for at least 3 months on your demo and then try the transition.

3) This is also a self note. Once you get the groove of it, refrain from letting other traders' ideas or charts induce you into doing something that's not your setup. I am in contact with a couple of good traders, and more than once - mostly during my drawdowns - I looked at their trades and tried to look at the market the way they do...and the losses continued to pile up until my fiancèe (who has learned through me about the markets and has surclassed me in discipline) told me to get back in the driver seat and follow what used to work for me. The key here is discipline. Stick to your plan even when you get some stops because nowhere more than in the markets does history repeat itself with such accuracy and frequency.

A sincere Happy Friday to all, stay safe & stay classy!

[castor]

Yes you are right jcpfx, thanks for the tips

Happy Friday and the upcoming holidays to you as well!