Technical Templates

[Carll]

For those rolling any fresh positions over into today's action or considering placing bets this morning, just be aware of month end flows, especially on & around the 2 main fixings today (the ECB @ 12.15gmt & the London @ 16.00).
Tess & Bobby were reporting steady demand for Euro into yesterday's close (22.00gmt), also Yen was getting sold solidly particularly off the 82 handle on USD/JPY (which has traded for 4 day's this week), & word drifting in as Tokyo winds down is that some of that was Tokyo fixing business related to the Softbank/Sprint flows that round number relayed to the thread 9 days ago.

Softbank (on the back of their recent merger with Sprint - released Oct 15) have apparently started making noises to banks about preparing to buy $US's with a total finance arrangement in the region of 1.5/2.0 Tril Yen (to be officially confirmed).
Worth putting USDJPY & the crosses on the radar for future reference, especially on & around levels of technical significance.

[jcpfx]

For those rolling any fresh positions over into today's action or considering placing bets this morning, just be aware of month end flows, especially on & around the 2 main fixings today (the ECB @ 12.15gmt & the London @ 16.00).
Tess & Bobby were reporting steady demand for Euro into yesterday's close (22.00gmt), also Yen was getting sold solidly particularly off the 82 handle on USD/JPY (which has traded for 4 day's this week), & word drifting in as Tokyo winds down is that some of that was Tokyo fixing business related to the Softbank/Sprint flows that round number relayed to the thread 9 days ago.

Softbank (on the back of their recent merger with Sprint - released Oct 15) have apparently started making noises to banks about preparing to buy $US's with a total finance arrangement in the region of 1.5/2.0 Tril Yen (to be officially confirmed).
Worth putting USDJPY & the crosses on the radar for future reference, especially on & around levels of technical significance.

Well noted Carll,

i saw some news regarding flows in EurGbp as well (I've noticed that during end of month/quarter it's a given that EurGbp will have some activity in it).

Wednesday was a tricky day for me, even if myself & my fiancèe came out on top. I have taken a rest on everything except DAX and have only followed it in the past 2 days. I'll post some charts on sunday for the comming week but until then I'm studying/backtesting some, taking a rest from live trading.

Just a quick question: usually up until Dec. 15th there is playable action... you guys got any piece of advice for those so inclined (as myself) to take small intraday bites even during low liquidity times?

Thanks!

Have a great weekend!

[JimmyMac]

Just a quick question: usually up until Dec. 15th there is playable action... you guys got any piece of advice for those so inclined (as myself) to take small intraday bites even during low liquidity times?

Just stay on your toes & be aware that thin markets are more prone to inexplicable, erratic spikes & aggressive 2-way directional swings.
There's way less wholesale (interbank) money sloshing around the system which impacts volumes and therefore it doesn't take anywhere near as much money to run prices back & forth between levels on most of the pairs.

Having said that, it's easier these days for the retail community to obtain acceptable fills & experience less hassle with slippage trading over low liquidity periods compared to a few years back, mainly due to improved broker front office efficiency.

As long as you continue to maintain your discipline & keep your shape you should be fine.

[visualxray]

Do you guys totally wrap up over the holiday's Jimmy, or do you operate a skeleton staff until January kicks in again?
most firms/banks hand over to junior dealers to babysit open positions, but I guess it's very much dependent on how diversified & heavily capitalized the fund is.

[JimmyMac]

We've been gradually changing the way we operate over the last few years.
I don't want to get into details but the FX side is now sliced, diced & managed from very specialized units.
Most of the client book, which includes a large chunk of intraday bets, have been run via algo's for a good while, & an increasing percentage of long range bets are now operated via that route too, especially on certain currencies.
We only require 2 or 3 guys to be on site over the holidays to ensure things tick over ok.

The manual/+ certain specific client stuff winds down pretty much around end of 1st week of December & the senior guys (the girls, Andre, jjay, myself et al) arrive back in UK mid January.

[jcpfx]

Good evening traders,

thanks for the head's up regarding liquidity and conditions in the comming weeks. Just a side-question to the elder group: is the increasing role of algos in FX changing the micro structure of the market? Is it really relevant to the small guy, that pays retail spreads? I have looked at some charts from before the 2007 crisis and it seems that what works now, worked back then and will (presumably) work in the future.

Here are the levels (pretty much self-explanatory) that i'm watching, going into the week:











Good Luck going into the week!

[jjay]

is the increasing role of algos in FX changing the micro structure of the market?
Is it really relevant to the small guy, that pays retail spreads?

Not half as much as erratic & decreasing volumes/liquidity & continued (straight jacket) regulation.

Algo's, such as the big Deutsche Autobahn, more or less run the intraday game these days, but the biggest challenge for retailers will come from even more potentially restrictive regulation.

Micro pricing, the way it's delivered & transacted will always be tradeable, but with price action fluidity coming under intense pressure from decreasing interbank participation, there will be shifts in behavioral patterns.
Obviously due to the nature of how algo's are developed & managed they will be much more efficient at adjusting to these changes & taking advantage of structural pricing, but the smarter discretionary (retail) operators should still be ok, as long as they continue to keep their game plan simple & uncomplicated.

As I said, the biggest threat is coming through tighter & more restrictive regulation.
Next up on the politicians microscope agenda pad will be minimum financing/capital input.
That, if anything, will have a much greater impact on retail participation.

[jcpfx]

is the increasing role of algos in FX changing the micro structure of the market?
Is it really relevant to the small guy, that pays retail spreads?

Not half as much as erratic & decreasing volumes/liquidity & continued (straight jacket) regulation.

Algo's, such as the big Deutsche Autobahn, more or less run the intraday game these days, but the biggest challenge for retailers will come from even more potentially restrictive regulation.

Micro pricing, the way it's delivered & transacted will always be tradeable, but with price action fluidity coming under intense pressure from decreasing interbank participation, there will be shifts in behavioral patterns.
Obviously due to the nature of how algo's are developed & managed they will be much more efficient at adjusting to these changes & taking advantage of structural pricing, but the smarter discretionary (retail) operators should still be ok, as long as they continue to keep their game plan simple & uncomplicated.

As I said, the biggest threat is coming through tighter & more restrictive regulation.
Next up on the politicians microscope agenda pad will be minimum financing/capital input.
That, if anything, will have a much greater impact on retail participation.

MMMMMM...do us retails have to be worried? Minimum capital requirements (or lower leverage if so be it) really don't scare me. In Italy, what scares me is the proposal for a Tobin Tax of 5 per thousand on notional amount. That means an extra 5 pips on each transaction (10 pips round turn). Currently a ground of advisors (Ifmadvisors) are trying to get political approval for their alternative structure of the tax (which wouldn't be a blood bath) but there is a political movement called 005 which is doing exactly the opposite and has found some heavy approval at the university level. Effectively, if the tax were passed at 0.05% on all financial products, my fiancèe and I will come to the UK probably and trade from there.

I have adopted the following philosophy regarding regulation: just as enterpreneurs in the real economy have their challenges with rules, regulations & taxes, us too in the financial economy have to adapt to the changes in regulation.

In the meantime, i'm here waiting for Dax to retest 7440s for an intraday long bet

[FXmike]

i read that for forex the tax would be 0,01% of the traded volume...and that it will be paid if only ONE of the transaction partners is based in a country that introduces the tax...so, the interesting question now is: even if UK will not participate, do they still have to pay because their banks get their prices from other banks (e.g. france, germany that will participate) and this could be seen as participating in the transaction?

planned date for introducing this tobin tax is january 2014...

[jcpfx]

i read that for forex the tax would be 0,01% of the traded volume...and that it will be paid if only ONE of the transaction partners is based in a country that introduces the tax...so, the interesting question now is: even if UK will not participate, do they still have to pay because their banks get their prices from other banks (e.g. france, germany that will participate) and this could be seen as participating in the transaction?

planned date for introducing this tobin tax is january 2014...

Ciao FXMike,

i think we are sliding slightly off-topic here. Unfortunately, I was the one who started going o-t myself, so i'll try to correct it here. Without going into more detail, as far as I know the UK will remain exempt (Cameron is fiercely against the initiative) while France has already activated it august 6th, Germany said it's going to postpone the introduction of the TT until 2016 and Italy is still pushing forward.

I myself will move to UK (have friends & family there) if the tax were passed.

Now, back to the market. It seems as thought the Dax & other futures indexes are rotating. Last night I tried to go long Dax @ 7426 but got stopped out @ 7435 as price did not find many buyers around the support area. It seems we may start heading downwards but i'd like to see a 4H hold below 7419 before starting to short this thing. I'll also be looking for longs on Cable at 1.6050s & maybe Kiwi around 8200/10 area if we get back down there.

May the pips be with you today!