Technical Templates

[Eidriel]

Ah, jcpfx and goldtop, I guess that is really the wiser choice, to wait and see.

Looks like I really got to put more depth into my analyses, should start looking into fundamentals as well

[jcpfx]

Ah, jcpfx and goldtop, I guess that is really the wiser choice, to wait and see.

Looks like I really got to put more depth into my analyses, should start looking into fundamentals as well

Hey Eidriel,

GoldTop has much more experience than me and also seems to have info regarding flows/volumes/etc. which I do not have. But as many have said here, a naked chart and common sense are really all you need to get the probabilities in your favour.

Why am I staying still? Because Prices are in ranges right now. Price moves every day but that doesn't mean you will have a setup every day. Just imagine all the retail guys who went short at LOD on Euro & Cable just now, only to have prices retrace against them. The trend is still up until it's down on Euro, so anyone shorting at thos point will still be fighting probabilities.

Certainly I do take Counter Trend trades but after reading this thread, i have substantially reduced them - and i have reduced many loosing trades with that!

What I al personally looking for is for price to break below 2950 and I "might" look for a CT scalp towards 2900 where I believe some longs may be waiting. I am trying to focus on the bigger levels and not get too carried away with the intraday noise.

If GoldTop, Jimmy or anyone else can expand on these topics, maybe Eidriel & myself could benefit from some street smarts

[Carll]

as many have said here, a naked chart and common sense are really all you need to get the probabilities in your favour.

Now you're talkin!

In the absence of anything else including additional information (advantageous or not), you revert to plain common sense & make decisions based on what you see & what you know, determined by the information presented within the pages of this thread.
I don't think there's any doubt the material here more than helps with the development & construction of a robust, logical framework.
The simple structures woven into that framework are designed to assist with the identification & the prioritization of primary & secondary order flow.
How each of us interprets & filters that information is purely dependent on our aims, objectives & risk tolerances.

There is no best fit, no perfect cycle sequence, no consistently defined bias or trend.
We have to constantly adjust & re-adjust to the ever changing market dynamics & work our bets into that puzzle according to how we gauge a high probability/low risk opportunity.

The perfect scenario doesn't exist.

Each day/week is different & will be orchestrated by events & influences that take precedence at the time.
Some of those influences will be short lived & unique whilst others will zoom in & out of focus until they get put to bed permanently.

Neither I nor Jimmy or goldtop or jjay etc can tell you what to trade or when to trade it.
We can present the info, repeat the basics, continue to remind folks of the important aspects of the concept, but at the end of the day everyone's risk profiles & objectives will be different & each will be responsible for their own trading decisions.

[jack mason]

Apparently volumes this morning on euro are approx 30% down on last week so there are obviously a lot of interbank players either flat/cashed or have trailing (long) stops in place & not particualarly bothered about initiating fresh longs.

That would indicate profit taking is the more likely tactic today.

I agree.
Above 1.29 & it's nothing more than a paring of longs/profit booking.
A drop & failed kickback through that level & it will more or less match up with your lower tops/lower lows scenario.

[jcpfx]

Evening Traders,

hope you had a great day. Below is my day in the Euro, and my fiancèe's day in the Dax. Any comments, especially on the Euro (which was tricky) would be well accepted. My overall view is that 1.2900 bids have still not been felt, so there is a chance that the Euro goes to probe them at some point. The 4H trend is weakened but still intact as we still need to see a lower high. On the dax, instead, the 4H trend is clearly still intact and my fiancèe was working off a clear flip that I had on my chart as well.

Am I correct in analyzing the trend this way? Or is the break of the consolidation area more of a direct change in direction? Thanks!

[xerb]

Below is my day in the Euro, and my fiancèe's day in the Dax.
Any comments, especially on the Euro (which was tricky) would be well accepted.

My overall view is that 1.2900 bids have still not been felt, so there is a chance that the Euro goes to probe them at some point. The 4H trend is weakened but still intact as we still need to see a lower high.

The close (or settlement) will be important today.
A close at or near the lows leaves 1.29 very vulnerable & will offer renewed vigour to the shorts, especially as it will print another lower hourly high & confirm goldtop's earlier technical outlook.

FX is quickly discounting the prolonged Greek debt financing circus, even if equities aren't (quite yet), & although both Europe & North America are tackling very similar debt structuring mountains, the market will flip (on a more or less daily basis) between whichever region is suffering most.

This makes medium term positional trading particularly difficult & frustrating to leg into & further emphasizes the need to trim target expectations & manage bets more actively.

On the dax, instead, the 4H trend is clearly still intact and my fiancèe was working off a clear flip that I had on my chart as well.
Am I correct in analyzing the trend this way? Or is the break of the consolidation area more of a direct change in direction?

That Dax S&R flip & trend structure looks pretty solid from where I'm sat jcp & was definitely helped today by the robust banking sector keeping it buoyed courtesy of Commerzbank & Deutsche tacking on 1.75% & 2.45% respectively.
Equities were also reacting to further positive action on Greek loan disbursement news, so buying dips today was certainly the higher probability tactic.

[hawkmoon]

A couple of pairs worth monitoring into end of week are AUDNZD & EURAUD.
Both have just reacted off respective S&R zones & have clear destination levels in view on continued momentum participation.

Although I've only highlighted the each-way zones on EURAUD, similar downside is clearly evident on a failure to hold the 1.27 zone on AUDNZD.
Given the vastly differing fundamental influences & themes impacting regional currencies of late, de-coupling isn't uncommon, where one currency can be both strong & weak v/s different trading partners.

If in doubt, side with the (short-term) technicals until the market aggregates & absorbs the price action.

[castor]

Thanks jjay and jcpfx! Hopefully it will be a smooth transition from demo to live. Trading on demo is boring Think I will just stick to oanda and see how it goes

[jcpfx]

Thanks jjay and jcpfx! Hopefully it will be a smooth transition from demo to live. Trading on demo is boring Think I will just stick to oanda and see how it goes

Good Morning Castor,

i must caution you, unless i misunderstood your point of view. Demo trading is fundamental in order to learn market dynamics, price action fundamentals, and build up a trading style that - after extensive testing - gives you a positive expectation. How long have you been applying the same setup? How many winners are there? How many loosers? How much do you win on average? How much do you loose on average? How many trades per week on which pairs?

I demo traded for a long time, until i found what works for me. And even then, i insisted until it became "sort of" consistently profitable. I still demo trade to test new ideas and/or enter trades that are a little too risky for my pockets currently, just to see how they go. As many have said, unless you have an active interest in the market, it's tough to really train your emotions as well.

So basically, don't be going live if the demo is boring. If you want excitement, go to Las Vegas. Go live if you have a reason to believe you can survive.

[castor]

Hello jcpfx!

Thanks for the warning ^^ Although the positive results haven't been too consistent, I decided to trade live because I personally feel that it is important to experience the "real" thing, so that I learn to handle the emotions, the joy of winning and the sadness of losing. Of course I will be keeping my bet sizes REALLY small until I have confidence of making consistent profits