Technical Templates

[goldtop]

This was an intraday trade I took on GBPJPY just yesterday, I got stopped out of it.
But I would like to ask you all for your opinion on how you all would have done it differently, in terms of analysis, entry, stop loss, and everything.

Technically & structurally there doesn't appear to be anything wrong with it.
All that happened was your stop got hit before the bet managed to return any profit & you should be congratulated for actually having a stop in place at outset.

I've yet to come across a trade that can't be nit-picked in hindsight, but we don't bet on hindsight do we.
To be honest Eidriel I doubt anyone else would have played it differently.
But I would pay very close attention to the comments spotfx posted yesterday.
Q4 is the time when Central Banks are very active in the market distributing & accumulating currency baskets in line with their buy & sell programs & the big firms & funds are aggressively squaring off, trimming out dead wood & re-adjusting their % holdings into years end.

Intraday risk exposure will increase noticeably & you're going to have to be very alert out there as we wind down.
It's not for me or any of the other guys to dictate what you do or how you wish to run your trade books, but just be aware there's a lot of big fish flapping around out there into years end & some of those waves can cause havoc.

the trade went well, and as always i would appreciate thoughts on the initial entry especially

Again, you play it as you see it & technically if that type of set up usually pays you dividends, then you're good to go.
It's the same old risk-opportunity cost/value ratio....& only you know how consistently successful it is.

was it really too risky given that the trade originated 15 mins before UK data and at lows that had been well bid before?

And here's the flip side of that risk-opportunity ratio.
Obviously today it went your way….another day you could not only get trampled in the rush, but experience horrendous slippage (through a stop) if an item of data really catches the market offside.
8 times out of 10 even if it reverses on you & sprints off in the oppositie direction no real harm gets done.....................but it's the other 2 occasions that cause the psychological & financial harm.

As with anything to do with this business - you pays your money & you takes your choice.

[2Taps]

Euro is rather more straightforward on my radar.
Both averages are bearish, the general tone is soft & the current axis level on this pair is clearly 1.2750

It's certainly directed & orchestrated the risk today.


The chatter re; snap japanese elections has certainly put the cat amongst the Yen, Aussie & Kiwi pigeons.
Which in turn has rocked one or two of the large hourly swing levels.
eur/yen above 100.0 could offer a tasty morsel or two on pullbacks if it manages to attract support above 101.30

[Eidriel]

Thanks jcpfx and goldtop

I will certainly keep a lookout, and maybe stay away from the market during this period

[jcpfx]

Why you must be nimble when fading

EurJpy short last evening:

1H chart:



5Min chart:


Every once in a while I like to remind myself of the reasons behind the strategy taught in this thread. I admit that it's tough to refrain myself from fading at some levels I consider strong...but things like last night remind me that it's always better to play with the trend rather than against it.

[midgely88]

Every once in a while I like to remind myself of the reasons behind the strategy taught in this thread.
things like last night remind me that it's always better to play with the trend rather than against it.

Amen to that.
Before i found this material i constantly tripped myself up trying to be clever by attempting to front run prices in either direction.
But the truth is there's very little value to be found in trading against even a weak bias/trend or trying to be a hero by gaining a few pips on everyone else.

These day's I'm either flat/bullish or flat/bearish based on what the 4 and/or 1 hour charts are telling me.
I'm triggering way less intraday entries than before, but those i do trigger are of a much higher value-to-risk ratio when they move into profit.
And when i get stopped out i'm a lot happier about it because i'm constantly viewing everything i do these day's from the perspective of "where is the keener risk" rather than "how much can i win"

And i put that down to only trading with the current bias/trend as opposed to fading it.

[jcpfx]

And now for a Jpy Update:



UsdJpy Update - 4H view > same stuff as GbpJpy, ChfJpy, EurJpy. The Jpy has been shot down and is basically the only clear major attracting interest. To play with the trend, we must wait for a pullback around 80-80.20 looking for entries. That would be 84.80-85.00 ChfJpy, 127s GbpJpy, 102-102.40s EurJpy.

Another clear chart is the SP500 mini futures, where the clear break below 1369s has opened up the possibility to see it as resistance. I am thus currently waiting for a retest of 1369s to short.

[jcpfx]

Every once in a while I like to remind myself of the reasons behind the strategy taught in this thread.
things like last night remind me that it's always better to play with the trend rather than against it.

Amen to that.
Before i found this material i constantly tripped myself up trying to be clever by attempting to front run prices in either direction.
But the truth is there's very little value to be found in trading against even a weak bias/trend or trying to be a hero by gaining a few pips on everyone else.

These day's I'm either flat/bullish or flat/bearish based on what the 4 and/or 1 hour charts are telling me.
I'm triggering way less intraday entries than before, but those i do trigger are of a much higher value-to-risk ratio when they move into profit.
And when i get stopped out i'm a lot happier about it because i'm constantly viewing everything i do these day's from the perspective of "where is the keener risk" rather than "how much can i win"

And i put that down to only trading with the current bias/trend as opposed to fading it.

Good stuff

The first trader I was in contact with was a former fx dealer and was constantly fading prices intraday getting up to 20 trades per day and a win/loss ratio of 84%!?! But then I noticed that he would not stick to a hard stop loss most of the time, but instead hedge his position which basically brough down his holding price, and keep on betting away day after day. I was amazed at his consistency but I really think that it's a dangerous approach unless you have deep pockets (which he did).

But i learned this only after time...and started off trying to fade like him, getting a good load of small trades and a small amount of big losses that wiped out the small trades. Not good!

So then, I started over...

This thread summs up all the good stuff I learned the hard way in 1 year of trading. These guys are great, and it's a pleasure to be here

[strobe]

Euro being dragged north by the crosses (check especially eur/gbp, eur/aud again today & eur/jpy).
Kiwi showing overnight/early London strength too across the board.

Intraday pullback players are zoning in today!

[strobe]

Euro being dragged north by the crosses
Intraday pullback players are zoning in today!

As good a level/zone as any to check out the potential of the continued bullish momentum generated this morning.
Jocelyn was reporting multiple confirmation of strong option interest on euro up at 775/2800 into the NY cut, but a big barrier has blown in usd/jpy through 81.0 earlier, so it kind of confirms aggressive specs are all over this late week swing up.

[jcpfx]

Close but o cigar... SP500 diddn't event reach 1365 (my first legit intervention level) before falling... And the Dax diddn't even reach 7100...there must be a load of pressure and/or stops of faders that were hit to drive it down so much so fast...

Sometimes you plan the trade...but can't trade the plan as the market just doesn't get to your trigger.



...and now my face looks a lot like my avatar...again...