Technical Templates

[Dappa]

Well the hourly chart is what I am reffering too. Now what would constitute a bias change of an up move? the trend is down but when that last lower high gets broken, I thought that means the cycle has changed?

[Dappa]

"I might be mistaken, but I'm getting the impression by your comments & chart example that the majority of losses you're experiencing might be due to a background (primary) bias identification conflict?"


Correct?

[hawkmoon]

Well the hourly chart is what I am reffering too. Now what would constitute a bias change of an up move? the trend is down but when that last lower high gets broken, I thought that means the cycle has changed?

That's right it does.
But a cycle violation doesn't constitute a change in the general bias or trend.
All it does is signify the (temporary) halt to the cycle.
And for further clarification of that just look what occurred again today on EURUSD & USDJPY when price failed to confirm a break of key S&R @ 2770-80 & 79.70-80
The lack of follow through by failing to print at least one higher high & higher low should tell you there was no appetite for a reversal in the current bearish bias/trend.

For that to happen a structural change has to become established & at the time of your post yesterday or during today's London session, neither of those pairs exhibited such behavior.
If USDJPY manages to scale back above 79.60 & print a higher low on the follow through, that will be the first signs of a potential flip in the current bias.
2770-80 is the zone that EURUSD needs to consolidate in order for there to be anywhere near a potential bias change.

[jcpfx]

Good evening traders,

was quite the day today with some clear(er) action than previous days. A while back, I spoke about this tendency on mondays and fridays of price happening to have more momentum on it than tues-wed-thurs and therefore I try to avoid fighting the flows. This morning there was a prime example:



The euro set up a textbook support at 1.2750 and we get a 5min pin rejection at 8.50 AM CET. Every retail punter & their dog was probably long off this point. 6 months ago, I would have been in that crowd too But it's friday, and we were not yet in a "reversal time zone" like 11 am CET or 17-18 CET (fixing times) where this effect wares off. So i decided to wait it out and eventually took the short off the break&hold @ 1.2742 closing @ 1.2715.

Any comments as to why price seems to be more "fadable" on tues-wed-thurs and why mon-fri are such bull-dozers?

Thanks!

[Carll]

Any comments as to why price seems to be more "fadable" on tues-wed-thurs and why mon-fri are such bull-dozers?

Mondays & Fridays are busy business sessions for the wholesale/institutional crews.
These are the days where they typically re-allocate percentage book risk, pyramid existing positions, book profits & re-allocate assets from their sector holdings.

[jcpfx]

Any comments as to why price seems to be more "fadable" on tues-wed-thurs and why mon-fri are such bull-dozers?

Mondays & Fridays are busy business sessions for the wholesale/institutional crews.
These are the days where they typically re-allocate percentage book risk, pyramid existing positions, book profits & re-allocate assets from their sector holdings.

Makes sense... thanks Carll

[Carll]

I like the concept of the method and it make sense, the only two things that seem to bother me is this.
When price breaks its last low and you wait for the pullback, what I see happen a lot is that price breaks through that pull back level and takes out your stop.

Yes, that will occasionally happen even in smooth, orderly price action cycles.
Nothing's perfect. Price action can be very erratic, challenging & sometimes downright annoying, & you have no choice but to take the rough with the smooth.

As long as you endeavor to place yourself the correct side of the dominant flows, based on your primary timeframe reference, then you're doing as much as you can to increase your odds & minimize negative risk.
Of course your risk profile & trading objectives will have a very large bearing on how you navigate & trade the market, but essentially the structure is the same regardless of your timeframe combinations.

Second, somtimes you wont even get a pull back to the level and price keeps going, how do you guys deal with these two scenarios?

If you're playing the pullback scenario & price fails to honor it, then you simply miss the entry.
If that session/day doesn't provide another acceptable pullback opportunity then you have no choice but to wait for the next set up.

[Dappa]

Ok simple, can someone post a pic of a down trend with a cycle change, the time frame to determine that change? I understand thew higher low and lower highs yada yada. But how do you determine which way to trade in a down trend when you have price breaking a lower high on the h1 time frame? I still don't understand the answers given, its as though oh well this happens sometimes and answers like that. So the concept is flawed in the sense of, the price action will not operate in the same manner all the time. So trading this way is no different than trading using indicators or what ever else one decides to use to rationalize a trade. To me it seems as though a logical approach is no different from letting an indicator tell you to buy or sell. Someone correct me?

[visualxray]

Ok simple, can someone post a pic of a down trend with a cycle change, the time frame to determine that change?

Here you go.
It’s exactly the same structure that you were referred to on 2 other occasions last week, but at least it's a current example.

how do you determine which way to trade in a down trend when you have price breaking a lower high on the h1 time frame?

By referencing the various zones of S&R, price pressure points & order flow strength & using them as a guide to assist in the decision making process, which is what professional traders use to help guide their ongoing trading aims & objectives as the order flow chops & changes session-to-session.

Have you actually properly read & digested the material contained within this thread?

I only found this stuff just over a month ago, yet it quickly became patently obvious that the main theme & focus of their work revolves around the identification of significant zones of support & resistance.
It's the core of everything that drives the structure presented here.
Directional bias (& cyclical price action sequence) work in harmony with S&R to offer a logical view of the current technical picture unfolding each & every day.
That combination influences the decision whether to buy dips or sell rallies based on your preferred primary timeframe template.

By bringing into play & incorporating a dual timeframe approach it offers you the opportunity to choose how you wish to trade & manage the each-way cycles that develop both contra-trend as well as with-the-trend, based & dependant on your individual risk profile.
A cycle can develop contra-trend (against the current flows) as well as with-the-trend.
How you decide to trade it is up to you.

So the concept is flawed in the sense of, the price action will not operate in the same manner all the time.

Well of course the price action isn't going to operate in the same manner all the time
If you want guarantee's you'd better find something else to do with your money.

The concept is far from flawed.
Perhaps you might want to take a little more time to revisit the material & properly digest it.

Having said that, you might also want to consider whether you're actually suited to this type of approach.
It's not for everyone & perhaps as you’ve alluded to, you might be more comfortable looking elsewhere for your trading answers.
It’s not like there’s a shortage of available methods or strategies to go at.

[midgely88]

I understand the higher low and lower highs yada yada.
I still don't understand the answers given, its as though oh well this happens sometimes and answers like that.
So the concept is flawed
trading this way is no different than trading using indicators or what ever else one decides to use to rationalize a trade. To me it seems as though a logical approach is no different from letting an indicator tell you to buy or sell. Someone correct me?

???
You've changed your tune pretty quickly haven't you?
It was barely 2 weeks ago you were convinced you'd found the pot of gold at the bottom of your bed.
Are you the same person that posted this back on the 25th Oct??!!

What's with all the mild hostility & sudden personality switch?

This is the first Time in my miserable trading life I have understood what was presented to me. This thread and forum rocks! This is probably the only thread on the net that has real traders showing newbies how to read Price action. I have a way better understanding now on how to approach trading and how to look for a trade.

The thread is dedicated to the method, everyone is willing to teach and brings the info across very well!

I cant believe that it took me so long to find the essence of trading. I now get it and it did not take long to catch on to what is being taught. Its so simple the way you guys teach this stuff.

I could never understand which way to trade the market and didn't understand how to get into a trend and ride it, but now I know! I always new that everything about trading was in front of my face but I just needed someone to explain it properly and logical to me so It made sense. once it made sense then you know why your doing what your doing and your mind is at ease.

The explanation of how to look for a trend reversal and the cycle change is what made the most sense and is the hart of trading, cause you know from the higher time frame where previous supply and demand levels where and you look for your higher lows and lower highs when price reaches those zones or levels. Its sweet simple and I watched it work from yesterday to today. You guys arebrilliant with your teachings. I will be able to buy my s550 in no time! lol.. haha!