Technical Templates

[Eidriel]

Thank you jjay, I am trying very hard to discipline myself and follow the rules. Sometimes when things just don't go your way, you just can't help but feel like you are doing the wrong thing.

Here is a trade I made which I hope to get some 2nd opinion.

I use the Daily to determine the price behavior. ie. uptrend, downtrend or range. In this case it looks like its in a range.\
I use the same TF to mark up my next upside and downside potential levels.

I switch to the 1H and look for Stoch hooks, and I entered short on this Stoch hook.

What do you all think? I have made trades like this before that just simply wash out later. So I am not too confident about it, but we will see how it goes.

In your opinion, do you guys have a more "confirmed" entry trigger criteria to add confidence to this trade?

Thanks!

[Se7en]

This is what I'm looking at this morning into the european open.

1) eur/usd is still in bearish mode as evidenced by the lower highs on both the mid range hourly charts.
2) price is printing below both moving averages on the hourlies
3) i have 1.2936 as the most recent lower top & a break back above this level would violate the current LH sequence. It's also the current asian top.
4) i have close quarter 1st & 2nd level supports identified as near term targets for price to aim for.

i'm looking for failure set ups back to the asian highs to trigger a short this morning.

[Se7en]

Here is a trade I made which I hope to get some 2nd opinion.
I use the Daily to determine the price behavior. ie. uptrend, downtrend or range. In this case it looks like its in a range.\
I use the same TF to mark up my next upside and downside potential levels.

In your opinion, do you guys have a more "confirmed" entry trigger criteria to add confidence to this trade?

Hi Eidriel,
That set up wouldn't rank as a high probability opportunity yet in my book & the main reason is the fact it's yet to print a clear lower low on your primary (Daily) timeframe.
It's printed a couple of lower lows on the hourly, but to be honest, they're quite scrappy & bitty & since Friday, price has simply been in a tight consolidation.
As you correctly say, it's simply ranging....therefore it could pop either way with equal justificiation.

Personally (as I'm sure most of the other guys would also) I would leave this pair until it started to exhibit a clear, identifiable long or short price action pattern of at least one lower low & lower high (pullback) going down on your primary timeframe.
or one higher high & higher low (pullback) going up on your primary timeframe.

At present, it's erring more toward the long side than the short side based on that criteria.

[Se7en]

i'm getting in here on this latest lower top failure at 1.2922 with my stop back at the asian highs at 1.2937 to check out the bearish momentum of this latest leg down.
asian lows are currently supporting price, but if it can penetrate here it looks good for further downside.

[Se7en]

1st target reached & i'll exit this bet if price violates this mini ledge here at 1.2903.

previous week & day lows & highs are notoriously whippy areas when price revisits these common reaction zones, so have to be wary of large pockets of bids, especially where round number levels are concerned.
but just using the cycle sequence of LH's & LL's on my secondary trigger chart will keep me in the position until it tells me otherwise.

[Se7en]

1st target reached & i'll exit this bet if price violates this mini ledge here at 1.2903.

i'm out & flat here at 2903 for a 1:1 reward/risk profit bet.
that typical low risk/high probability opportunity puts another effortless 2% into the pot right at the start of the week.
i'll now sit back & wait for another similar set up/trigger opportunity to play out on either this pair or another of the high volume/liquidity majors.

the beauty of playing this logical, common sense price action sequence in sync with dominant directional bias/flows, is that not only does it trigger you very consistently into high probability set ups, but more importantly stops you from entering high risk/low probability bets trading against those flows.

[goldtop]

Thank you jjay, I am trying very hard to discipline myself and follow the rules. Sometimes when things just don't go your way, you just can't help but feel like you are doing the wrong thing.

As long as you're obeying the key criteria of your rules & structure Eidriel then you're doing nothing wrong.
Sometimes, even though our preparation, execution & management is locked down tight the trade still washes out.
That's simply the way it goes. It's a game of probabilities & we can't win them all regardless how well we set the bets up initially.

Here is a trade I made which I hope to get some 2nd opinion.
What do you all think?
In your opinion, do you guys have a more "confirmed" entry trigger criteria to add confidence to this trade?

I go with se7en's comments.
If you're prepping & referencing your entries from a Daily perspective then you're going to require a bit more confirmation that prices are done cycling up into this recent resistance zone up at 83.50.

All I see at the moment are 2 higher lows up off 79.40 at the 81.65 area & this current higher low at c82.25

I would preferably like to see price breakdown below 82.25 & pull back.
That would then begin to establish a couple of lower highs on at least the 4H frame to begin offering a bit more confidence.
It would also begin to threaten the 60sma on that 4H chart & add a layer of confirmation to the break of the 1H 60sma.

1st target reached & i'll exit this bet if price violates this mini ledge here at 1.2903.

i'm out & flat here at 2903 for a 1:1 reward/risk profit bet.
that typical low risk/high probability opportunity puts another effortless 2% into the pot right at the start of the week.
that's the beauty of playing this logical, common sense price action sequence in sync with dominant directional bias/flows, is that not only does it trigger you very consistently into high probability set ups, but more importantly stops you from entering high risk/low probability bets trading against those flows.

Nice early week trade there se7en.
Things will be a tad nervous until we get the US elections out of the way.
The market is kind of swinging on neutral at the moment & players are wary of laying down big bets until they get a feel for who is going to get elected & what their initial economic focus is going to be tuned into.

Once that circus is put to bed the market will once again begin to re-focus on the european debt issues & which currency is able to ride out all this current & impending turmoil.
The way to go for the time being is to adopt a "little & often" approach & pick up these high probability short windows of opportunity bets.

[Sarah Foster]

Prices are still trading with a bearish lower high tone on the hourly, even after this mornings pullback off the 1.29 figure.
5 minute shorts are still the lower risk/higher prob option on a break below this 1.29 round number with stops back above 2915, looking for a push through the mornings lows.
2915 keeps the current bearish tone cycle intact.

[hawkmoon]

I am trying very hard to discipline myself and follow the rules. Sometimes when things just don't go your way, you just can't help but feel like you are doing the wrong thing.
Here is a trade I made which I hope to get some 2nd opinion.

There's not much out there at the moment that's exhibiting any kind of smooth, steady bias progress to be honest Eidriel.
The only 2 cross pairs on my watch-list that are high up on the potential guage are AUDCAD & EURAUD.

You might want to keep tabs on those 2 if/as they pull back to their respective prior swing high/low levels.
They're both trading the right side of their respective moving average lines on the 4H frames & the cycle on AUDCAD will remain valid if it trades on or above 1.0230
EURAUD's current bias cycle needs to stay south of 1.25 to offer another short leg down.

I realise it's not a Daily view, but perhaps the 4H will offer you a balance or trade-off between Daily & the slightly faster frames.

Apart form that, it's a slim pickings for this approach style, particularly on the larger timeframes.
Much of the price action across the majority of the majors & cross instruments is chopping back & forth through the averages and/or violating the swing cycles during each day's business activity.

[speedbump]

Very thin trading during yesterday's New York session & the same conditions are expected throughout today's business hub, so a little caution won't go amiss when attempting to leg into bets.

The current lower high hourly cycle on eur/usd has been snapped with a close above 2915 & fresh intraday (sub-hourly) cycle to the upside will be confirmed on a push through yesterday's high beyond 2940.
I know spotfx has been scaling into usd/cad to the long side & that is evidenced by that very trendy higher low step (1-2-3) up through parity off the 0.9900 round number higher low step last thursday.
That is the one major that's been exhibiting a solid cycle pattern lately & the last higher low step at the parity level will be the violation point for this leg up.