Eidriel wrote:As you can see on the Daily, chart, its showing a downside bias.
I don't disagree with the general bias, however price is printing very clear higher lows off 0.9440 & if you compare this activity to the previous two pullbacks during September, currently it's a much more solid uptick.
Eidriel wrote:However, at this point, I was thinking of WAITING for price to show maybe 2 candles to the downside on the DAILY first, this will kind of act as a confirmation that my prediction is right. Upon seeing this 2 candles, I will then switch to the 1H which is my secondary timeframe, and leg in with the momentum towards my target via a Stoch hook above 80 OR a 123 on the 1H.
The trigger & set up criteria is fine, but what I would want to see first is a determined effort for price to reject this 0.9640-60 area which represents the September lows.
All I see this week (via the 4H bars) is strength.
Just look at the visuals of the bullish activity bars v/s the bearish ones.
For a quick secondary opinion, price is trading above the 4 & 1 hour 60sma's - not usually a good sign to start considering shorts when the momentum on those charts is headed the other way.
What I'd personally be looking for on this pair before attempting to leg into a possible short would be for price to break down through 0.9640, which is the current higher low on the hourlies, & pullback offering up a potential lower high (1-2-3).
But that's just my view...........yours might be very different
Eidriel wrote:I like all the examples posted here recently, but it seems like all of them involve a 123 trigger on 15M or 5M.
I tried to replicate the exact style but on a longer timeframe (ie. using the Daily to judge directional bias instead of the 1H which I think most exmaples here are showing, then the 1H for 123 triggers instead of the 15M and 5M), but it seems that I cant just copy that 1H-15M combo trading style into a Daily-1H combo.
the results are very different.
Yes, to a large degree they will be different.
Jack touched on it in his reply to castor. This approach is geared to, & designed around maximizing the opportunities provided by intraday momentum.
Once the generic bias is identified via the hourlies, target entries (wrapped around the stoch hook/1-2-3 triggers) can be taken which closely track the price action via LH's & LL's going down & HH's & HL's going up on the sub hourly timeframes.
If the opportunity exists (due to an aggressive intraday move into the average day's range extreme) to roll positions over & take advantage of another follow through leg, then this type of approach is the ideal vehicle for that objective.
If, on the other hand, the volatility dictates otherwise, the entry will get cashed on violations of that price cycle sequence.
Although it's possible in some cases to replicate that behavior on the higher timeframes you have to realise that when you're toggling up on those timeframes in search of positive risk/cost ratios, you're going to have to widen your margins for error & quite often adopt pretty large risk stop placements in order to check out your intentions.
Unfortunately, this year that approach isn't proving to be a very a positive tactic due in part to the contraction of intraday & weekly range boundaries & the increased range volatility which are the effect of all this global financial turmoil.
That's why it's extremely important to "cut your cloth accordingly" when conditions dictate, & adjust your exposure to suit the current market rhythm.
If a higher timeframe model isn't viable for whatever reason, & is out of kilter with the market pulse then you either have to stand aside & wait until it is conducive or use another approach.