Technical Templates

[Eidriel]

Hi Jack

This is what I meant. I have been following this eurcad trade up the ladder for awhile, and just awhile ago, it hit the Strong resistance at a round number which happened to be my "target" when I first entered the trade. My usual behaviour will tell me to exit the trade. Unfortunately I missed the time where it hit the target due to time committments again as usual (sigh..wish I can just trade full time), and so the next time I saw the chart, it has already dropped quite a bit. Now it seems like
it is just going back and forth between the resistance level and prior day high.

What should I do in this case? Should I have just exited the trade when price met with the strong resistance at a round number? or I should have just placed a trail stop?

Anyway since I didnt want to exit the trade now, I just put a trail stop just below the prior day high, but I think i am going to get stopped out soon.

By the way, I have another question, when the price hit the strong resistance, it would exactly have covered the entire average WEEKLY range. But leave approx. 10-20 pips left on the average DAILY range to the upside. What I want to ask is, how good is the average WEEKLY range in predicting that price is going to turn around? Is it as effective as the average daily range?

[jjay]

I have been following this eurcad trade up the ladder for awhile, and it hit strong resistance at a round number which happened to be my "target" when I first entered the trade.

If that was your intended target/exit area or initial objective when preparing your analysis prior to entry, then it's reasonable to assume you're good to cash out & bank the money.

My usual behaviour will tell me to exit the trade.
Unfortunately I missed the time where it hit the target due to time commitments again as usual (sigh..wish I can just trade full time), and so the next time I saw the chart, it has already dropped quite a bit.

If this scenario is a regular occurrence, then have you considered using limit orders when you place your bets?
That way, if you're not able to babysit the bet for whatever reason your order will do the job for you.
If you're around at the time it arrives at your pre-identified level, you can take over, cancel the limit order & assume control.

What should I do in this case?
Should I have just exited the trade when price met with the strong resistance at a round number? or I should have just placed a trail stop?

I'm going to repeat that extremely important phrase again I'm afraid, & the reason being is because it forms the very foundation of everything you do;
"What was your original objective when analyzing the price action & preparing the bet"?

Because, that decision should already have been taken before you entered the trade.
I'm not trying to be a hard ass here, but you have to appreciate there's rarely a perfect scenario in trading. Therefore when something happens outside of your preferred outcome you need to know exactly what you're going to do to either limit the potential damage or milk the unexpected benefit before it occurs, otherwise you're simply shooting in the dark.

how good is the average WEEKLY range in predicting that price is going to turn around?
Is it as effective as the average daily range?

The weekly range is as important a guide as the daily range. Note the term guide.
The ADR isn't a predictor, it's just a landmark or traffic light to assist with forward planning.

If the weekly or daily range or both also happens to coincide with a key level or zone, then that should act as a big flashing beacon.

[Eidriel]

Thanks jjay

I get it now I see the importance of having a well thought plan, setup, and objectives

Thanks everyone for helping me out here. I finally see what I should do!

[Se7en]

I've been beavering away in the background focusing on, observing & trading pretty much the same currencies that most of the other guys have on here the past few weeks & that won't change next week unless we get a sharp negative reaction in the current themes & dominant bias.

I'm still running with the flows trading intra-day (15m) & hourly pullback hooks, seeking out more continued deterioration in the NZ & AUS pairs, matching them up with the stronger currencies as per the recommended pre-trade analysis. I'm also sliding in & out of eurusd as & when the clearer opportunities set up during the european trading session.

3 typical scenarios I'll be keeping an eye out for next week. Same old stuff;

1) Ensure the bias is onside.
2) Look to my 60m primary leader to give me the nod.
3) Drill down & either enter via a hook or a price action based trigger on the 15m or 60m, whichever offers the best deal.
Being mindful of the ADR at entry & any data releases & price driving influences, to which there are one or two high impact items of note on both the NZ & AUS coming up.

Good luck for next week all.

EDIT: slight error in the 1st 2 initial support levels. It should of course; friday's lows & not last weeks lows, but I think you get the picture!

[Sarah Foster]

I'll throw in the AUD/CAD to your mix too se7en if I may.
Much of September was spent ranging & consolidating August's steady decline from 1.0600 & it faded out around the 50% level of that mid month pullback high move from 1.0440 to the current low at 1.0050.

It dropped through September's shallow consolidation last week & has now found support at a previously strong zone of demand at 0.9950-75.
I've identified the first most likely pullback area if price gets traded back there, but will be following the advice dispensed here & look to take the first high probability short opportunity anywhere from current level back towards that 1.0030-50 area next week if the usual triggers & background information/data justifies it.
I feel that if the current Australian bearish theme continues then this pair will offer as good an opportunity as any to try & pump a little more profit from it, especially as it has broken through another weak area of recent activity.

[Eidriel]

I think this is a pretty similar trade to the AUDCAD trade Sarah has shown?

I came across this AUDUSD trade, and I was just wondering how would you guys usually trade this kind of scenario.

From what I have read and understand, this "hot reaction zones" are the best places to enter a trade with the lowest risk, and also they are 2-direction zones, which means that
price are both equally likely to continue to go down or go up when they reach this area?

Price has reached a major support level as shown on Daily chart. However, the 4H bias remains to be bearish.

Will you all consider a long entry immediately, if say the candle shows an inside bar or hammer?

or will you guys wait for a confirmation via a momentum shift to higher high and higher low on the 4H, before you all will consider any long entry?

or will you guys just watch for a breakout and pullback to go short?

Thanks guys!

[speedbump]

I came across this AUDUSD trade, and I was just wondering how would you guys usually trade this kind of scenario.

Price has reached a major support level as shown on Daily chart. However, the 4H bias remains to be bearish.
will you guys just watch for a breakout and pullback to go short?

The 4 & 1 hour bias (which I use to determine my directional bias decision making) is clearly bearish, therefore I would personally only be looking to short it either via a pullback from current level that gives me a hook down off the 80 level on either of my hourly charts and/or my 15minute trigger chart, or as you say - a breakout & pullback scenario offering the same set up criteria as described.

will you all consider a long entry immediately, if say the candle shows an inside bar or hammer?
or will you guys wait for a confirmation via a momentum shift to higher high and higher low on the 4H, before you all will consider any long entry?

I think I can confidently speak for virtually everyone here considering the repetitive nature of the comments/charts, & say no I wouldn't be even thinking about going long this pair until friday's high was cleared & consolidated with at least one hourly higher low print & a clear, obvious stochastic hook confirmation up off 20.

[kyle morgan]

the 4H bias remains to be bearish.
Will you all consider a long entry immediately, if say the candle shows an inside bar or hammer?
or will you guys wait for a confirmation via a momentum shift to higher high and higher low on the 4H, before you all will consider any long entry?

I'm with speedbump on this one too Eidriel.
The bias identification process is very clear & unambiguous & has been proven to offer extremely high probabilities of success going back 3 years (on this thread) ahead of time week after week after week.

If your primary timeframe is indicating a higher probability direction, then the main focus is to trade in the direction of the identified bias using the set ups & triggers presented here until the most recent swing high or low is invalidated.
In the case of the AUDUSD the bias is clearly indicating a short continuation bet until & if price moves back above, & consolidates the 1.0270 zone which marks both Thursday's & Friday's high print.

Obviously, you must play it as you see it. You don't have to base your decisions on any of the information posted here & if you feel a long bet constitutes good value, then take it.

[Eidriel]

But of course! what was I thinking! Trade in the direction of the trend. Thanks for the reminder guys.

Actually there is another thing that happen today that I wish to consult you guys. Were the large moves by EUR, JPY and CHF today largely due to news releases?

It seems that all of them were just disobeying all the technical levels?

I did a quick check on forex factory calendar and sure enough that 3 currencies had news releases for today.

I have been ignoring the news all this time, do you all usually choose to avoid trading the pairs that has news releases for that day no matter what the technical signals?

[round number]

Japan was on holiday into today's action & America is on holiday today too, so that always affects the volatility, liquidity & momentum cycles due to thin markets.
And whenever you have thin markets you quite often experience erratic, fast moving price action that can throw a spanner in the technical readings of your chart layout.

Combine that with any red or amber flag data releases & you have the potential for a very choppy or difficult trading session or two.