Technical Templates

[shona123]

When are you guys starting to wind things down this year?
I guess you're in Thanksgiving party mode tomorrow/this weekend!!

Jimmy, jjay & couple others in their office finished Monday & yesterday. I finish tonight & I believe Joe is flying home Sunday.
It'll get quiet on the thread from this weekend until middle of January when the majority of the desks are back in the saddle.

If you're intending to trade up to the middle of December be very selective with your opportunities & consider reducing your size. Volumes will deteriorate quickly after next weekend & that will lead to exaggerated moves in very thin markets.

Well done with those trades, you've absorbed a lot of information this year & transferred that into some impressive analysis & trades – hopefully look forward to hooking up with you next year.
Enjoy the holidays.

[goldtop]

I've only got back in short again yesterday actually as it fell through 5875 & am still holding it.

Nice one.
You can't really go wrong continuing to ride the short bias on the main 2 european pairs. It's now going to take a break back & hold above 1.5850 to begin to halt this slide.
The 2 support ledges below are near term decision points for Cable should the thin market conditions push it lower into the weekend.

I concur with Shona, your progression is impressive. You obviously have a flair for this type of trading style & your analysis reflects that. Keep it going.

[jack mason]

Well done with those trades, you've absorbed a lot of information this year & transferred that into some impressive analysis & trades – hopefully look forward to hooking up with you next year.

I concur with Shona, your progression is impressive. You obviously have a flair for this type of trading style & your analysis reflects that. Keep it going.

Thanks guys, much appreciated especially coming from the likes of you!
I really enjoy this technical trading style & am finding the material you all are presenting here very reliable when analyzing & pre-planning potential trades as well as seeking encashments.

The 2 support ledges below are near term decision points for Cable should the thin market conditions push it lower into the weekend.
It's now going to take a break back & hold above 1.5850 to begin to halt this slide.

Prices reacted right on the nail (again!!) to your pre-identified support ledge goldtop & I cashed my short out through 1.5570 as it bounced the support zone 3 days after your post.

I've now highlighted the upper 2 tiers of potential resistance should price manage to climb through 1st line at 1.5850 & the clear, obvious support level now resides back at your previously identified marker at 1.55

[jack mason]

I've now highlighted the clear, obvious support level residing back at the previously identified marker of 1.55

Hey guys & happy new year!

Planning on easing my way back into the groove starting next week & thought I'd cast a lazy eye on events since the last technical updates of early December.

Looks as though that 1.55 figure was a bit of a magnet all through the final month of 2010.
From when we left the last chart on Dec 5 @ 1.5771 price moved down to the support level during mid Dec, reacted, broke through & then it acted as minor resistance right into late month/early new year.


Interestingly, last weeks low (1.5345) was the last visible support zone back in late summer of 2010 from which it caught a strong bid to the years highs & it put the brakes on Decembers slide last week right on cue!


I view that lower 5350 support zone as the primary near term bearish fulcrum on this pair with 1.5650 (the vicinity of last weeks high) up to 1.59 as the upside area of interest as volumes begin to return to near normal levels during the remainder of January.

[JimmyMac]

Hey guys & happy new year!

Hey Jack
Back atcha & all the best for 2011.

I view that lower 5350 support zone as the primary near term bearish fulcrum on this pair with 1.5650 (the vicinity of last weeks high) up to 1.59 as the upside area of interest as volumes begin to return to near normal levels during the remainder of January.

I wouldn't disagree about the relevance of that lower support ledge.
It will focus a lot of stop activity as it begins vibrating the level again next time around, especially sell stops lying in wait underneath down toward 5150.

Bids were quite heavy during December as shorts approached 5350 so I guess we can expect another round of stiff defense on a 3rd approach. I'd expect 5350 to 5650 to provide a floor-ceiling range cap on this pair until the $US gets a clear initiative into 1st quarter.

EURUSD 2900-2950 will have a huge say in events too. That channel of support will need to hold up if the $ bears want to gain traction from here.
Those traders active during December who were selling into rallies on the GBPUSD & EURUSD certainly placed themselves to the value side of the bets & that's for sure.

[akhunzada ali]

Happy new year everyone!!

i was a silent observer to this thread for quiet some time but decided to break my silence as was facing a little entry problems.. i would wish to share how i ve been trading for quiet some time, firstly i see the daily directional bias (as stated by joe ), and than on 30 min chart i place support and resistance (high/low) and trigger my trade only in the daily directional bias on a five minute time frame but some time price explode through the levels and retrace back and takes me out .Now i was wondering if anyone can help me with this problem.Do i need to wait for a pullback or anything else because sometime the price breaks and never makes a pullback and so on ..
sorry about my english guys/girls.

Best Regards,
Ali

[akhunzada ali]

Here are some good examples from Todays tradings:

Eur/Chf
Gbp/Chf
Usd/Chf


i know guys i have come between some absolute classic stuff being shared by real professionals here but i hope that you people won't mind and help me out with my problems.thanks

Best Regards,

[jjay]

Hi Ali.

Glad you're enjoying the material. Welcome to the thread & thanks for your contribution.
There's one additional option I can include that could actually be utilized in both possible situations, so I'll break it down & split them up.

sometimes price explodes through the level and retraces back and takes me out
Do i need to wait for a pullback?

You could wait for a pullback & that's certainly a valid option.
Or you could simply reduce your bet size on the initial breakout to test whether it's genuine or not first.
If it is then you have the secondary option of adding the rest of your bet stake to the trade via pullbacks if it continues in the direction of your entry.

If it doesn't continue & it reveals itself to be a false or premature breakout, you've only lost half or 1/3rd of the original stake to test out the trade possibility.

and sometimes the price breaks and never makes a pullback..

Yes it does & that's a real bummer if you're left on the sidelines watching it move steadily away without you.
Again, the above example could also be used in that scenario.

Obviously, you'd only really need to experiment with this option if you're experiencing a lot of stop outs.
If you are, you might want to look into how or what is influencing you to enter this type of technical set up in the first place.

I notice on the above chart examples that you're quite heavily exposed in the Swissy.
You might want to consider spreading your bet exposure around a little more.

It's quite risky to be caught over exposed in one specific currency just in case the market catches you (& the particular currency) unawares. Not so bad if you're on the right side of a move, but quite nasty if you're caught the wrong side of an unexpected pop against you.

[akhunzada ali]

Thanks JJay for your early reply.i am very grateful for your help which you and others are extending to newbie traders like me .

I notice on the above chart examples that you're quite heavily exposed in the Swissy.
You might want to consider spreading your bet exposure around a little more.

Well, these swiss pairs trades were the one's which materialize today as per my trading plan , the rest like Eur/Usd , Gbp/Usd ,and GbP/Jpy didn't materialize but thanks again for your input .
Well, i went through my charts again and again on these trades and i found that if i had drilled down to 1 min chart and trailed it i would've got pullback on each one of these trade.
What would you suggest about this JJay? thanks again!!!

Regards
Ali

[spotfx]

i went through my charts again and again on these trades and i found that if i had drilled down to 1 min chart and trailed it i would've got pullback on each one of these trade.
What would you suggest about this

Obviously when you're conducting your post-trade analysis & reviewing how you might have managed & improved on the potential trade it's easy to beat yourself up about missed or lost opportunities. Unfortunately nobody has that luxury when the live market is ticking through the numbers. You prepare, wait & when opportunity knocks you hit the button....if it works out then great....if it doesn't then your risk stop will take you out safely.

There will be situations where even the best prepared plans don't work out.
As long as you've honored your usual pre-trade criteria & covered all your bases then you've done everything asked of you.
Over the course of a typical year these things tend to even themselves out Ali.

If you feel confident & relaxed about drilling down into a 1 minute chart to manage or instigate your trade then go right ahead.
Presumably you'll continue to remain loyal to your usual basic analysis, set-up & risk criteria.
How you manage & work your trades is your business. If you feel in total control & it doesn't knock you off your stride, then go get em!