What's in ECB policy toolbox in September?
After the ECB bluff last week, which saw Mr. Draghi falling short of concrete measures, the market, surprisingly, has turned optimsitic that the step up in ECB rhetoric means bond intervention is looming closer and closer. According to Standard Chartered research team, "we now see a rate cut in September, along with another LTRO and a looser collateral framework." The bank adds: "We think Spain will accept a European bailout in the coming weeks, key to ensuring ECB market support." Lastly, Standard Chartered, believes "the ECB buying is not a game-changer as there are still-sizeable risks in the euro area, including Italy."
London session ahead will be another quiet one in terms of EUR related risk events, with only EU Sentix investor confidence at 08:30 GMT, before FED chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at 13:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt front no critical auctions will take place either, with Spanish 10 year bond yields closing Friday right below the 7% mark, and Italian ones at 6.08%. Both had a big relief Friday after jumping to the upside the day before. (fxstreet.com)
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-08-06 05:00 GMT | Japan Coincident Index (Jun)
2012-08-06 07:00 GMT | U.K. Halifax House Prices (Jul)
2012-08-06 08:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug)
2012-08-06 23:01 GMT | U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All (YoY) (Jul)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-08-06 04:14 GMT | EUR/USD sticks to near 1.2400
2012-08-06 03:04 GMT | USD/JPY to gain ahead of BoJ meeting
2012-08-06 01:19 GMT | AUD/USD, close above 1.0550 paves way to 1.0640/70
2012-08-06 00:02 GMT | EUR/USD, risk rising of squeeze higher above 1.20-25 range
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EURUSD : 1.23800 / 1.23804
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2595 | 1.2519 | 1.2443
1.2368 | 1.2298 | 1.2222
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Friday EURUSD progressed above suggested resistance level at 1.2217 and met our final target at 1.2332. Medium term bias is positive now and we expect further appreciation on this week. However today we are not expecting significant volatility. The upside movement is limited by next resistance level at 1.2443 (R1). Surpassing of this level enable next target at 1.2519 (R2) and any further gain would be limited by last resistance at 1.2595 (R3). Without significant economic news announcement, consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress below next support level at 1.2368 (S1) might expose next target at 1.2298 (S2).
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GBPUSD : 1.56065 / 1.56069
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5789 | 1.5730 | 1.5667
1.5600 | 1.5536 | 1.5470
SUMMARY :Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
On Friday instrument moved upwards and recover some of previous week losses. We are not expecting significant move on the instrument today. However further appreciation is possible above next resistance level at 1.5667 (R1), a break here would suggest next target at 1.5730 (R2) and further rise will then be limited by 1.5789 (R3). Next support level stay at 1.5600 (S1), brake below it might provide a downside priority in direction for the remaining of the day. Next suggested target at 1.5536 (S2).
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USDJPY : 78.422 / 78.427
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.23 | 79.01 | 78.77
78.33 | 78.13 | 77.92
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
After the US Payroll announcement on Friday instrument advanced above our suggested resistance level at 78.07 and expose our final target at 78.68. Technically, USDJPY remain to be traded in sideways on the medium term. The crossing of moving averages on the Asian session could be considered as signal of possible correction ahead. Next support level at 78.33 (S1) protects now from possible retracement. Brake here might provide sufficient momentum and expose targets at 78.13 (S2) and 77.92 (S3). On the other side, further appreciation on this week is expected above next resistance level at 78.77 (R1) with next suggested targets at 79.01 (R2) and 79.23 (R3).
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