Technical Templates

[Ray_1]

Like what Sarah has mentioned, eur seem to be holding its ground. EURUSD is approaching a support zone at 1.30 & a psychological number. However, the stoch cross setup still offer some good opportunities in the fiber and cable.

[xerb]

the stoch cross setup still offer some good opportunities in the fiber and cable.

Oh sure, they're still doing their job in sync with the price action Ray, but the Dollar really has to breakout of it's range on the Index to offer any real appetite for Euro & Sterling to make headway either side of their respective upper & lower boundaries.

If it can gain momentum through 80.20 to the upside then eur/usd will move through the lower s&r zone at 1.30 & Cable through 1.58
That upper barrier on the Index is also influencing this Dollar/Canadian s&r zone too.
Worth keeping tabs on if the US Dollar decides to make a run for it......or not as the case may be.

[kyle morgan]

aud/jpy broke & pulled back into 85.0 last week & I'm eyeing shorts on this one if it begins struggling to climb back up towards friday's highs.
I have 82½ as the next strong visible s&r zone, so quite good r/r available should a small timeframe setup/trigger opportunity reveal itself.

82.48 is the current low into today's Tokyo trade & its not surprising to witness this kick back up considering the excess of normal range it covered yesterday.
The hourly spotlights the upper zones that the market will be layering offers into, with stops above those zones as is the norm on aggressive directional moves.
Shorts have the bias for now as long as price remains south of yesterdays high & that tokyo low range.


The market will quickly focus in on the next lower s&r zones if this key 82.5 level gives way this week.
Quite important technical support area here.

I've got the next significant zone down at 105.70-106.0 marked up as a possible 2 way bid & stop order level.
Pullbacks towards friday's highs will likely be shorted on signs of failure & exhaustion.

2Taps also correctly identified this area on eurjpy as the next potential bid zone.
Market will be layering offers into the shaded area back towards yesterday's highs & providing price is repelled inside that lower high zone, shorting rallies is the higher probability play.


Daily highlights the significance of this current technical support zone that has found expected bids this morning, & the next area of significance is located a further 4 handles back towards the 102 area.

[zilly]

Been out & about today, just got in, flipped through my watchlist & found this one had sneaked up into this previous support zone that now appears to be acting as resistance at this 66.5 area.
I've missed the ideal value entry so will play the next pullback when it obliges.
I'm going to have to start placing limits when I'm not in attendance at my workstation!

[bigdog]

If you look at the very first post on this thread ........ I thought it was worth sharing a trade from today based on what was presented way back then plus some minor mods.

I am looking at the EURUSD. Not the best for trading at the moment due to it trading in a range for the last few months.

Step 1. Look at the daily below. A buy signal candle formed yesterday. RSI > 50, price closed +10 pips above SMA(5).



Step 2. Look for buy signals at previous levels of support. Must have 50% or better of ADR left in the tank. Risk:reward is acceptable based on placing stop below point 1 or 3. No trading until on or around london open.



Step 3. Entry based on 1-2-3 pattern on 5M chart (in this case). Alternate entry was a 1-2-3 or stoch hook off the 15M or previous swing high off the 1H around 1.3165.

[Carll]

If you look at the very first post on this thread ........ I thought it was worth sharing a trade from today based on what was presented way back then plus some minor mods.

Step 1. Look at the daily. A buy signal candle formed yesterday. RSI > 50, price closed above SMA(5)
Step 2. Look for buy signals at previous levels of support. Must have 50% or better of ADR left in the tank
Step 3. Entry based on 1-2-3 pattern on 5M chart (in this case). Alternate entry was a 1-2-3 or stoch hook off the 15M or previous swing high off the 1H

Which just goes to show that providing you base your set ups & triggers around a technically solid structure & keep the background confirmation simple & logical (such as triggering with acceptable risk & adequate available daily range), your odds of a successful outcome are generally greatly enhanced.

I agree with you bigdog, Euro has been mired in a messy range lately due to the fundamental drivers influencing it.
Sterling has certainly been a more sympathetic performer over the past couple of weeks, & transferring your template onto the GBP major & cross pairs have also generated an acceptable selection of positive risk/value opportunities.

[kipper]

Couple of pairs knocking on the door & pulling back to the usual prior zones of reactive price action.
eur/gbp found support at the low end of 2011 through the first couple of weeks of this month before breaking down & pulling back to test the bearish drop.
I'm going to continue to sell rallies on this one with sights set on the June 2010 lows at 80.50



So the natural follow on from that is the clear bullish bias on the Pound, that is this week pressuring a big key resistance zone from October last year.
The base structure that we use to gauge our bias has been clearly indicating a buy-dips stance & that remains the case into the end of this week.
Again, I'm only seeking longs until it threatens the secondary support zone marked on the 4H chart, as this would negate the clear higher high-higher low stair step advance.
There's not much in the way of defensive obstacles until it hits 1.64

[Sarah Foster]

Nice heads up on the Sterling pairs into end of week kipper, thanks!
Pretty standard pullback this morning at the start of london on the GBP/USD which bounced virtually to the pip off yesterday's low with all the trimmings you guys like: hourly & 15 minute stochastic extreme at the 20 level with hourly & 15 minute neutral spinning top candles.

Still think it will reach out for 1.64 kipper?

I got stopped out of a USD/JPY trade on Wednesday for -1.5% after shorting 81.30 & had to take a breakeven stop out on AUD/CAD today as it moved back up through 1.0190 from yesterday's short, but the GBP/USD saved my bacon to end the week an overall happy bunny!!
I like it when only 1 out of 3 trades comes good yet I still get to bank a worthwhile profit.

[kipper]

You're welcome Sarah. I'm no expert, just putting into practice what I've learnt & am continuing to learn from these guys.
1.64 is my view of the next clear upper technical target for Cable, but as always the market will dictate the levels it's prepared to trade from based on the general consensus of the dominant camp. All I/we can do is ensure we stick to our rules & take the set ups & triggers that the momentum offers.

Not only did Cable react off Thursday's low but that area was also covered by the previous resistance zone I had marked up, so it kind of double stamped it
I now have this little mini pullback area around 1.6210-30 penciled in for observation if price should decide to deflate into the early week action, ahead of the stronger S&R zone it's just cleared. But I'll continue to go long dips providing I obtain the usual confirmation to do so.

My eur/gbp short spent the latter part of the week treading water, but I'm still happy with it so I'll give it room to breathe & let the stop loss do it's job if events turn sour.

Just as side note Sarah, (& in case you're not already aware) I'd pay a bit more attention to the Yen next week if you're considering trading the usd/jpy or any of it's crosses. It's the Japanese Golden week holiday period commencing April 28th & it might get slightly volatile & erratic with the expected reduced liquidity from that region.
As ever, have a great week everyone & take care!

[hawkmoon]

nice work kipper.

one contributery factor for risk currencies (euro, cad, aud etc) holding onto their support zones the past couple of weeks is the strenth in the broader market.
S&P has pushed through a 12 month resistence barrier & pulled back to consolidate the break, helping to confirm the current bullish outlook.

providing risk continues to be bought, tradeing pullbacks to the long side of those currencies will offer the keenest odds.


canada's central bank have confirmed to the market they are still seriously considering raising interest rates which has given a big bonus to playing pullbacks (short) on usd/cad.
the support zone at 0.9860-80 was flagged up with an extreme hourly stochastic hook above 80, which will now act as a marker to take further pullback shorts back towards that zone as price approaches a long range support zone, seen via the weekly chart.