Technical Templates

[JimmyMac]

Hi All,
Here is a potential trade I am looking at.
My primary bias is short on the cable.
If price gets back to the 1.5720 to 1.5750 area I will look for a 1-2-3 trigger short on the 15M.

Hi bigdog,
Totally agree re; the pullback option & the area you've identified for your potential entry looks to be about 50% of the most recent (Thursday/Friday) highs to today's lows, so that figures too.

If price breaks north then I will wait till price gets to 1.5800 - 1.5820 before looking for my next trigger short.

No disagreement from me on that tactic either. If price climbs back & continues through the 5720-50 area then that lower high level around 5800 is the next logical zone to expect offers to be waiting.

I will also trade (entry trigger) pin bars, engulfing bars, spinning tops etc but ONLY on the 1H, 2H, 4H ....time frames.
A wise person once told me that candle stick patterns have little meaning on the sub-hourly time frame.
Would be interesting to hear others views on this.

Larger timeframes certainly carry more weight because the traders with much heavier financial clout tend to construct & plan their bets around them.
When these types of bars begin forming on & around previously significant levels & zones on the technical chart, the resulting price action can often signify the beginning or resumption of a very powerful move, hence the tendency for traders to place more emphasis on these occurrences playing out on the + hourly timeframes.

There's also the time factor to consider.
A neutral type bar (doji or spinning top) or a bullish/bearish reversal-continuation bar such as an inside or engulfing, that plays out over a long(er) period of time at & around a key level of conflict such as a previous support/resistance area & big figure/round number reflects high & intense activity.
A lot of conflicting orders have to settle out & get absorbed before the winning side come through & exert their dominance, but you'll often find that if an area of significance is visible on the larger timeframe chart, it will also reflect similar behavior traits on the smaller timeframe charts.

Obviously, they can't be considered as important on a stand-alone basis, only in the context of the area or level....and that is the important factor!

Everything presented on here pivots around levels & zones of significance, be they prior swing zones, key round numbers, previous day/week/month high-low levels or major s&r zones.
And those technical zones of significance are visible from all timeframe references.

I've just hooked back short into this pullback to that lower daily range.
Classic re-test move with a nice 2 bar reversal entry through the low of that 1.0640 hourly bar.
Decent risk above recent highs that offers a good view to check anymore downside potential.
I got the round number @ 1.0600 & todays lows @ the 1.0530 (also a confluence support zone from tuesday & yesterday) as my initial sticking points.
I'm happy with the risk/value ratio anyway.

Price finally moved down into your second identified tier of probable support this morning during the Sydney/Tokyo shift.
That's a nicely managed trade showing calm discipline.

I agree with jjay's observation. You guys, especially the newer participants (bigdog, west, 2Taps, se7en, kipper etc etc) are contributing some very solid & mature material to the thread.

Keep it going, it's really nice to see!!

[xerb]

I agree with jjay's observation. You guys, especially the newer participants (bigdog, west, 2Taps, se7en, kipper etc etc) are contributing some very solid & mature material to the thread.

It's a consistently high quality thread. Informative, a lot of different views, yet all revolving around a common theme.
I really enjoy hanging out here.

Price finally moved down into your second identified tier of probable support this morning during the Sydney/Tokyo shift.
That's a nicely managed trade showing calm discipline.

Cheers Jimmy. I've banked a little profit down here, shifted my trailing stop down accordingly & am now looking for a continuation to the next highlighted area of probable conflict.
Hopefully we'll keep this risk-off tone for a while to enable prices to bed in & consolidate this short view!

[xerb]

I will also trade (entry trigger) pin bars, engulfing bars, spinning tops etc but ONLY on the 1H, 2H, 4H ....time frames.
A wise person once told me that candle stick patterns have little meaning on the sub-hourly time frame.

Would be interesting to hear others views on this.

I'm in the camp of bowing to the seniority of the higher timeframe too bigdog for the reasons Jimmy just confirmed.
I also see the relevance & logic of observing price action across the timeframe spectrum in relation to the zone or level, which is what I think 2Taps was referring to in his recent post where he mentioned that rejection activity playing out on the 15 minute chart.

The zone or level trumps everything. That area being a prior day low ranks as a pretty important technical level in my book, so I guess it makes sense to include those rejection type bars in the analysis breakdown at that level.

I definitely wouldn't rank 5 or 15 minute bars as anywhere near important or influential unless they were printing at a level of significance - that's just asking for trouble.

[kipper]

Hi All, another beautiful day here in Australia.

Hello bigdog, could you please send some of that lovely weather over to us poor, chilly souls in the UK please?

Here is a potential trade I am looking at.
My primary bias is short on the cable. Price is currently at decent support around 1.5650. So no trade for now.

If price gets back to the 1.5720 to 1.5750 area I will look for a 1-2-3 trigger short on the 15M.

I'm right with you on the bias & bearish outlook. I'm playing short EURUSD this morning with the same pullback view.
Can I ask what if prices don't pull back to the level you've indicated, but offer a potential entry further down?
Would you still take it, or are you only focusing on the deeper pullback?

I've just gone short in EURUSD off a stochastic hook on EURUSD which has rolled over slightly above this mornings Asian high, in line with current higher timeframe bias. It looks like I've backed the slower horse though, because as I type Cable has just breached the Tokyo lows from a very similar entry signal

[bigdog]

Hi Kipper,

Great questions. In the absence of a deeper pull-back I would look for a pin bar or engulfing bar on a higher time frame, say 4H. That being said there is not much room to move on the EURUSD as it stands now. Incidentally my charts show a 4H bullish engulfing candle has formed on the fiber suggesting prices will move higher in the short term.

Decent support at 1.3080 would make me a little nervous. For me, its time to stand aside and wait for those A+ type entries. Pull back to previous solid zone as mentioned by Kyle earlier today.

There is also that Big Round Number at 1.3000 to negotiate.




Cheers
BD

[West]

Can I ask what if prices don't pull back to the level you've indicated, but offer a potential entry further down?
Would you still take it, or are you only focusing on the deeper pullback?

For what it's worth, If I was of the view that a pair was going to continue its downside momentum I would view my areas of interest to short as either:

1) A deeper pullback to a S/R zone
2) A push through the previous momentum low point

So if the pullback is shallow and doesn't reach my deeper pullback S/R area I would still look to enter as price moved through the most recent swing low on my template timeframe (assuming available ADR is sufficient for acceptable Risk:Reward). As a hypothetical example, if EURUSD remains within a tight range for the remainder of today and tomorrow it continues it's downside momentum I would be prepared to short it through the pre-day low. Possible triggers might be a 1-2-3 continuation or a break and a 5 minute stoch hook pullback trigger as used by Carll.

[kipper]

Great questions. In the absence of a deeper pull-back I would look for a pin bar or engulfing bar on a higher time frame, say 4H. That being said there is not much room to move on the EURUSD as it stands now.
For me, its time to stand aside and wait for those A+ type entries. Pull back to previous solid zone as mentioned by Kyle earlier today.

For what it's worth, If I was of the view that a pair was going to continue its downside momentum I would view my areas of interest to short as either:
1) A deeper pullback to a S/R zone
2) A push through the previous momentum low point

As a hypothetical example, if EURUSD remains within a tight range for the remainder of today and tomorrow it continues it's downside momentum I would be prepared to short it through the pre-day low. Possible triggers might be a 1-2-3 continuation or a break and a 5 minute stoch hook pullback trigger as used by Carll.

Cheers guys, I appreciate what you're saying & take your points about hanging fire until the clear, quality set ups reveal themselves.

I'm clearly the least experienced poster here but I'm actually enjoying being stretched & pushed along by the quality of the analysis & contributions from you guys.
Although I only began live trading last summer, & have experienced my fair share of losing trades (mainly down to novice timing issues), my account is in positive territory & I haven't subjected it to any psychologically damaging scenario's whatsoever.

That is a great credit & compliment to the sensible & helpful information available from you all on this thread.
Thank you for keeping me honest & encouraging me (& others) to always look beyond the short term picture.
I'm learning a heap of stuff, enjoying it immensely & can't believe how far I've already come since deciding to take this game seriously.

[hawkmoon]

depending on how the risk attitude of the market picks up tonight in Asia & tomorrow morning in europe, these 2 local levals will be worth keping close eye on for possibel reactons.
the drop through 5700 figure on friday was tested today & marked the highs.
5650 is a very big 2 way leval, acting as resistance in late december & early january before flipping to support during 3 ocasions, once in late january & twice during february.
the last touch i have included in the chart below, which was breached earlier today & has yet to be traded back through.

it may not offer any strong resistance at all, but this 50 pips channel is a previusly busy s&r zone & i will certainly be keeping a sharp look out for any hesitation offering any of the usual setup & trigger clues to enter a short with the bias.


one other pair on my list for shorting with the bias is audcad pair.
i am angry that i missed the pullback short on friday after the american jobs report, becose it was a classic trade entry candidate that the guys are always presenting
but it is now firmly on my short entry list if it either pulls back & offers a hook or candle print (2 bar or 1-2-3) entery or looks like toppling over in european session.
it's not really a day trading candidate due to its low ADR, but the bias is becoming established & worth betting on if it sets up accordingly.

[bigdog]

Following on from yesterdays discussion. 4H fiber chart shown below.

If you drop down to the 1H chart you can see a nice little pause around 1.3220. I am interested in that area if price gets there during the first few hours of the london session.

I dont use fibs in my trading template but hey, why not get the crystal ball out and try and predict where price may turn......

What would be really nice if price took out the prior weeks highs before continuing lower.....food for thought.

[goldtop]

I dont use fibs in my trading template but hey, why not get the crystal ball out and try and predict where price may turn......

No voodoo or foul & abusive language to be used on the thread please ladies & gentlemen!
There might be children or young adults viewing the material & we don't want to be responsible for leading them astray now do we

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