Technical Templates

[bigdog]

Short bias in play on 1H using 20 SMA.

I am looking for price to pop back into the Asian session range as it currently has as I type this. Even above Asian session high if possible.

Look for the stoch to hook at 80.

Wait for 1-2-3 entry short. Providing there is room to PDL.

This is all on demo.............

[Carll]

Short bias in play on 1H using 20 SMA.
I am looking for price to pop back into the Asian session range as it currently has as I type this. Even above Asian session high if possible.
Look for the stoch to hook at 80.

Excellent interpretation, preparation & application of the bias & execution.
It's quickly apparent you're not going to experience too many setbacks or false dawns if you continue to set your stall out as you're currently doing.

Impressive first few contributions. Look forward to more of your activity!

Don't lose sight of that very basic yet extremly importent piece of this jigsaw Se7en.
Its the heartbeat & core of everything that drives this technical model.

The thing I like about their material is the fact it follows a simple, logical sequence both in the preparation analysis & the execution of the bets.
No fancy indicators or layer upon layer of confirmatory information to work through.
Just one primary (higher) timeframe to get your bearings from & whatever secondary (lower) timeframe you prefer to execute the entry.

And you kindly linked me here too in search of a private communique with Carll, for which I thank you!
I'm adding myself to the growing thread membership.

Nice to see a few more familiar usernames popping up to add flavor to the pot!!

[bigdog]

Thanks Carll..........credit goes to you.

To finish the story off. 5M chart below shows what happened based on analysis done over 4 hours ago.

My thinking at the time was that the big guys needed to run the stops above the asian range to get people thinking long breakout and thus filling their order books for a move south.

Nice to have a few of the names from bpips come across here. Certainly adds to the quality of the posts.

T1 filled @ 2900
T2 @ 2820
Stop @ 2870 now

It will be interesting to see what the New York Open (NYO) crew will do to price?????

Carll, what period ADR are you using pls?

[jjay]

Carll, what period ADR are you using pls?

He's logged off & won't be around again until next Tuesday bigdog, so I'll take this one for him.
He currently observes the 40 period ATR on the Daily chart. That's sufficient to offer him an acceptable balance & trade-off between the difference in volatility between the near (1 month) & far (3 month) activity....that should be more than appropriate for an intraday type approach.

T1 filled @ 2900
T2 @ 2820
Stop @ 2870 now

Nice trading & well managed.
You've got it taped now should it grow legs quickly, yet close enough so as not to give back too much of your hard worked profit.....always try to adjudge & account for a compromize

It will be interesting to see what the New York Open (NYO) crew will do to price?????

Sure, but that's not really something that ought to concern you, certainly not having snagged your ideal entry & got your profit trailing sussed out.

[kipper]

Here are 3 I've been trading/following recently based on the pre-trade & preparation style advised on the Tech Template & 3 Ducks threads.
eurnzd is quite a bit more visual & obvious in its current directional bias, & one I traded short leading into Xmas.
I'll continue to take a short bias on this pair too until it trades & confirms a potential bias change beyond last week’s highs.

and the staple old favourite of most people...eurusd. I will only consider taking a counter-long view if it manages to trade & hold back above last weeks highs above the 1.3075 region.
Until then I'm looking for shorts only.

Yeah, I just don't fancy it from the long side yet se7en.
I'm simply using the basic template guides that Tess, Jocelyn & their colleagues laid down to keep me on the right side of the money & for now it's still telling me to short rallies.
I'm actually preferring to short Euro versus the NZ Dollar (as per my previous post) & Yen at the moment to be honest. The eurnzd short especially is a really easy bet to take given the strong trend still in place.

.
xerb,
It looks as though you're taking a slightly longer term outlook with your trades if I'm reading your comments correctly.
Can I ask how you would typically manage a trade once it has begun to move into positive territory.

I note you're currently trading EUR/NZD & have done since before Xmas. What type of trade management approach have you adopted with this position & does it differ much from any intra-day trades you take. I'm guessing average day or week range will form part of your decision making criteria?

Thanks.

[xerb]

Hi kipper.
If the price action looks like it's engaging with a clear directional bias based on my 4 & 1 hour primary timeframe, I'll attempt to hold onto the position for as long as is sensibly possible without giving too much profit back to the market.

Therefore, I simply look to tuck my protective & trailing stops behind clearly identifiable swing zones on either the 15 or 60 minute charts, taking into account the ADR.
As with most things, there have been occasions where it's fallen flat on its face & others - such as with the current eurnzd & eurjpy trades - where it's provided a highly satisfactory result.

If you look at that hourly chart of eurnzd for instance over the past 2-3 weeks you'll quite clearly see the obvious lower swing highs where price needs to penetrate & overcome in order to stop this downtrend in its tracks. Fortunately for me they've all held out & proven successful for hiding profit stops behind.

My current trailing stop on eurnzd is positioned at 1.6470 which is above yesterday's high & represents approx 80% of the ADR off today's lows.
My trailing stop on eurjpy is also tucked above yesterday’s high at 99.40 which represents a similar percentage of ADR off today's lows.

I'm very quickly learning that you have to take whatever the market is offering at the time & try not to look a gift horse in the mouth when it presents itself.
Although there will never be a perfect scenario when establishing entries, exits or trailing profit zones, if the market offers good value in respect of the risk you took in executing the original bet, then you can't really ask for more.

[shona123]

2 or 3 more to add to your watch lists for next week.
$INDX is butting this year old resistance zone so keep a sharp eye on the eurusd for any signs of a prolonged pullback.
If it can hurdle & consolidate this stiff ceiling level it should bound on to cover 83.50 quite effortlessly, thus opening the door for further shorting opportunities in eurusd.


audcad is in similar resistance territory probing for further upside toward that late 3rd/early 4th quarter target zone.
There are clear technical support levels below which traders will expect bids to be layered on any tests should the offers prove difficult to overcome at current levels.


and eurgbp is on a tear of late with this strong support zone down at the summer 2010 lows in it's sights.
It remains a strong short on rallies with Sterling proving to be the belle of the european ball on the back of confident feedback from IMF & G20 ministers re; UK debt & budget constraints.
Further declines on this pair, coupled with positive $INDX headway equals confident continuation short bets on eurusd!

[zilly]

2 or 3 more to add to your watch lists for next week.
$INDX is butting this year old resistance zone so keep a sharp eye on the eurusd for any signs of a prolonged pullback.

That was/is a smart observation shona, thanks. Price is indeed pulling back this morning right out of the Tokyo & Frankfurt traps & I've marked out 2 areas of possible resistance on any strong bullish counter move.
I assume those are the 2 primary levels you'd be taking a keen interest in?

[shona123]

I assume those are the 2 primary levels you'd be taking a keen interest in?

Yes they are zilly.
Always look to the most obvious levels price had traded out of & away from first because that's where the majority of the next batch of stops will be gathering.

Price has to clear & trade through previous swing highs & lows or solid areas of previous support & resistance first before it can make progress. If the current order book is still heavily biased to the short side then expect these pullbacks to quickly run out of steam & watch/wait for one of your favorite entry triggers to signal you back into a trade.

[kipper]

That was/is a smart observation shona, thanks. Price is indeed pulling back this morning right out of the Tokyo & Frankfurt traps & I've marked out 2 areas of possible resistance on any strong bullish counter move.

It's thrown up one of bigdog's favourite triggers (a 1-2-3) right up there around that 1st resistance area for another good short zilly. Although that eur/nzd trade of xerb's remains the more relaxing bet of them all.

All he's had to do at the end of each day is move the trailing stops down to rest above that days highs. I see it's slipped even further today so I suppose when it closes out the stops will be moved down to the 1.6310 area?
You certainly don't need many of those types of trades over a the course of a business quarter to compound the account!