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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 25, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is holding near 1.3430 and remains supported by expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s policy rate. At its March 19 meeting, the regulator unanimously kept the rate at 3.75% and stressed that the rise in global energy prices is already affecting fuel and utility costs for British households. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to respond if the external shock begins to feed more strongly into domestic prices.

The pound is also being supported by the bond market. According to Reuters, yields on two-year UK government bonds rose by around 60 basis points in March, and market participants even began to consider the possibility of a rate increase later this year rather than a cut. This has boosted sterling’s appeal relative to other European currencies and revived demand for the pound after a weak start to the month.

Sterling still has weak points: a recent KPMG survey showed worsening consumer sentiment due to concerns over food and energy prices. However, for the currency market, the difference in rate expectations and the Bank of England’s readiness to maintain a firm stance for longer matter more at the moment. As long as this factor remains dominant, the baseline scenario for the current date stays moderately bullish for GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3430, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3520

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You can find more analytical information on our website.

[Volkov Yuriy]

#Brent and #WTI: how a single post crashed oil



What happened on March 23:

On March 23, the oil market experienced a sharp decline. Within a few hours, #Brent crude lost more than $10, falling from $110 to $93, while #WTI dropped from $100 to $84. However, it was not the decline itself that drew attention, but what preceded it.

According to Financial Times and Bloomberg, large trades were executed just 15 minutes before Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about “productive negotiations with Iran.” Within 27 seconds, around 6:50 a.m. New York time, about 6,200 futures contracts on #Brent and #WTI were sold. The total value of these transactions was approximately $580 million. Immediately after Trump’s post (at 7:04 a.m.), oil prices plunged, while stock indices moved higher.

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Denial from Iran:

Later, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf described the reports about negotiations as “fake news aimed at manipulating markets.” There has been no official confirmation from the Iranian side.

White House reaction:

The U.S. administration called suspicions of insider trading “unsubstantiated and irresponsible,” adding that illegal actions by its employees would not be tolerated. The identities of the traders who executed the $580 million worth of deals have not been disclosed.

Current situation (March 25):

Oil has partially held its levels after “Trump’s Monday.” Today, #Brent is trading around $95, while #WTI is near $87. Market participants remain uncertain: on the one hand, geopolitical risks persist (military presence in the region, potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz), while on the other hand, U.S. oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels, easing fears of a supply shortage.

FreshForex analysts note: the market is currently moving not around real supply flows, but around news whose reliability is difficult to verify. The $580 million in trades executed 15 minutes before Trump’s post showed that those who entered the market before public information captured the move. In the coming days, #Brent and #WTI may remain under pressure, as the market quickly removes the “risk premium” when signals about negotiations appear. If the diplomatic narrative does not fade, quotes may continue to decline, although volatility is likely to remain sharp. When the market reacts to a headline within minutes, the key question is whether you can open a trade before the news becomes official and starts influencing the price.

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