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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. March 10. New Week – New Shock



The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a new shock on Monday. To be precise, investors, traders, banks, companies, and governments—essentially, the entire world—suffered this shock. Brent oil prices soared to $119 per barrel in morning trading due to a series of attacks on refineries, storage facilities, and distribution sites. As we can see, the conflict in the Persian Gulf is focused on destroying energy infrastructure, which is its peculiarity. Let's remember that Donald Trump initiated a full-scale war aimed at dismantling Iran's uranium stockpiles and preventing Tehran from hypothetically launching ballistic missile strikes against U.S. territory. Simultaneously, Trump hopes to bring about a change in the Iranian government to one more favorable to the U.S., as the U.S. president understands that any subsequent government will adhere to the same policies as its predecessor. Over the past week, approximately 50 high-ranking officials in Iran have been killed, including Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. Yet Iran's policy has not changed at all. However, currently, U.S. allies are not focused on destroying uranium stockpiles. They are targeting oil reserves, specifically production capacities in the oil sector. This raises a simple and painfully familiar question: Is the main goal actually oil rather than uranium? America is ready to share its oil and gas reserves with the world. However, last year, many countries had to be coerced into purchasing American oil and gas. Now, with many oil infrastructure facilities in the Middle East destroyed, the Strait of Hormuz blocked, and oil supplies from the region halted, oil prices have skyrocketed. So, who benefits from this situation? Those countries that produce oil and sell it, namely the U.S., Russia, and Washington-controlled Venezuela. Of course, it is quite difficult to understand what Trump is really trying to achieve. It is entirely possible that the war in Iran is not only about the Iranian nuclear threat or oil, which is currently afloat. The main importer of oil from Venezuela and Iran has always been China. Perhaps the essence of the conflict lies within China? It is quite possible that Trump is, in a rather convoluted way, trying to stifle Beijing's industrial progress and economic growth, which he sees as the main enemy of the U.S. But what's the point if China can easily purchase oil and gas from Russia? In general, there is always a narrative for the masses and a true narrative. Very few people on the planet know the truth, while the rest can only speculate. Nevertheless, the dollar has been rising much more slowly in recent days and is practically not rising at all. This suggests the market has already reacted to the war in the Middle East to a significant extent



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past 5 trading days as of March 10 is 102 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1486 and 1.1690 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel points upward, indicating the upward trend is maintained. The CCI indicator has re-entered oversold territory, signaling a possible resumption of the upward trend. A new bullish divergence has also formed. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1475 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1841 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its correction within the upward trend. The global fundamental background remains very negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely now time to resume the global trend of 2025. There is no fundamental basis for the dollar's long-term growth. We are currently witnessing another global correction. If the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with targets at 1.1486 and 1.1475 based on technical (correction) grounds and influenced by the complex situation in the Middle East. Above the moving average line, long positions remain valid with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085. Explanations for Illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend. The moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed. Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel in which the pair will trade over the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD for March 11. One Last Push Remains

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M



The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which is encouraging. Recall that yesterday, Donald Trump announced the imminent end of the conflict in the Middle East, and later it was reported that the first tanker had passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of the U.S. Navy. Thus, oil from the Persian Gulf countries may soon begin to flow into global markets, and oil prices are rapidly falling, reducing tension across all markets. As we mentioned, as soon as the situation starts to improve, the dollar will lose its only supporting factor—the complex geopolitics. From a technical standpoint, the downward trend remains intact, but traders can only orient themselves using the Ichimoku indicator lines. Thus, the euro still has one last upward push to overcome the Senkou Span B line, above which the trend can be considered upward. As for the macroeconomic background, it continues to have no impact on the currency pair's movement, but it may soon do so, as geopolitical factors are now taking a back seat. Today, the U.S. inflation report will be released, but we do not expect any new growth in the dollar in the near future unless the war in Iran reignites with renewed force. On the 5-minute timeframe yesterday, at least four trading signals were generated. All were practically perfect. The price bounced three times from the 1.1615-1.1625 area and once from the 1.1657-1.1666 area. In all cases, the nearest target was reached. Thus, traders could have opened at least three trading positions during the day, each of which was profitable.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated March 3. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," and since Trump took office for a second term, the dollar has been solely falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current developments around the world suggest this is a possibility. We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, even amid the war in the Middle East. On the other hand, there are sufficient factors for the decline of the American currency. The global downward trend is still present, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 18 years? Since September 2022, a new upward trend has been forming, breaking through the global downward trend line. Thus, the path further upwards is open. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 300, while the number of shorts increased by 20,000. Consequently, the net position decreased by 20,300 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend amid geopolitical events in the Middle East; however, it may change to an upward trend soon. The situation in the Middle East is becoming calmer, so the geopolitical factor is no longer supporting the U.S. currency. The market may shift its attention back to macroeconomic events, and the dollar may not fare well in that regard... For March 11, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1683) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1586). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to place a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Wednesday, the European Union has scheduled only the German inflation report for the second estimate of February, while the U.S. has a much more significant inflation report for the same month. Since geopolitical factors are weakening their influence on markets and currencies, the U.S. inflation report may provoke a market reaction. Trading Recommendations: On Wednesday, traders may consider short positions in the event of a bounce from the 1.1657-1.1666 area or from the Senkou Span B line, with targets at 1.1615-1.1625 and 1.1586. Long positions may be considered if the price consolidates above the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.1750-1.1760.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD for March 12. Once Again, Geopolitics...


Analysis of EUR/USD 5M



The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Wednesday. The conflict in the Middle East has only just begun to fade due to Trump's verbal rhetoric; however, the objective reality indicates that Trump is very far from it. Yesterday, Iranian officials stated that the war would end when Tehran deems it necessary, threatened to destroy the U.S., reported on three damaged tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and called for preparations for oil prices around $200 per barrel. Partly, Iran can be understood. Israel, the U.S., and other coalition allies have inflicted serious damage, so it would be naive to think Tehran would simply surrender. Unfortunately, the conflict could drag on for months or even years, dealing an irreparable blow to the global economy. Meanwhile, the dollar is gaining strength again as markets flee from risks. From a technical perspective, the downward trend has not yet transformed into an upward one. The Senkou Span B line has not been breached, and even the 1.1657-1.1666 area did not allow the euro to push higher. Thus, if geopolitics remains this tense, the dollar could continue its rise, which would contradict the technical picture, the fundamental scenario, and the macroeconomic outlook. In other words, geopolitics currently takes precedence over everything. On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were generated yesterday. During the U.S. trading session, the inflation report was released, causing confusion among traders. Inflation remained unchanged, but the dollar temporarily declined across the market. It dipped only to return to its upward trajectory. Thus, of the four trading signals, only three could provide traders with a profit, making it difficult to capitalize on movements throughout the day.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated March 3. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," and since Trump took office for a second time, the dollar has only been falling. We cannot say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue with 100% probability, but current developments around the world suggest this is a possibility. We still see no fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, even amid the war in the Middle East. However, there are plenty of factors supporting the decline of the American dollar. The global downward trend still holds, but how important is it now, given where the price has moved over the last 18 years? Since September 2022, a new upward trend has been forming, breaking through the global downward trend line. Thus, the path further upward is open. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 300, while the number of shorts increased by 20,000. Consequently, the net position decreased by 20,300 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend amid geopolitical events in the Middle East. The situation in the Middle East gave traders hope for only two days, but has now reverted to the reality of war and mutual threats. The dollar has not yet updated its annual highs, but with the current developments, it may do so in the near future. For March 12, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1683) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1586). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves to be false. On Thursday, there are no significant reports or events scheduled in the European Union or the U.S., and the market has recently been largely ignoring macroeconomic data. Thus, movements in the pair today will once again depend on geopolitics.

Trading Recommendations: On Thursday, traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below 1.1542, targeting 1.1426. Long positions can be considered if there is a rebound from the level of 1.1542, with targets at 1.1615-1.1625 and 1.1657-1.1666.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. March 13. Iran Blackmails the Whole World



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in a downward trend on Thursday, and this time, no one even questioned: "Why?" Recall that at the beginning of the week, the market was swept by a wave of optimism due to Donald Trump's statement about the imminent end of the war in Iran. According to the American leader, nearly all objectives have been achieved, and the Strait of Hormuz will be unblocked one way or another—either by Iran or by the U.S. Navy.

However, as practice shows, nothing like that will happen in the near future. A convoy of U.S. Navy vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz will mean only one thing: Iran will strike at them. Iran is unwilling to voluntarily lift the blockade, which serves as a key pressure point on the U.S. and the world. In order for Tehran's words not to be seen as mere bluster, Iran carried out no less than six strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Thus, we see that the statements of Iranian officials carry weight, whereas the U.S. president is making promises that the market does not understand how to fulfill.

In our view, Trump has initiated yet another behind-the-scenes game, the true motives of which are known to very few. Initially, it seemed that the war in Iran was a pretext to block oil and gas supplies to China, as China remains the U.S.'s main competitor on the world stage. Perhaps this is indeed the case. Yesterday, a suggestion was made that the U.S. has taken the status of the world's largest marine cargo insurer from the UK by waging war in Iran. Simply put, no insurance company in the world is currently willing to insure tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while American companies are ready to do so. However, it remains unclear how these insured American vessels will manage to exit the conflict region. Yet, this hypothesis also exists. It is clear that there was no urgent need to attack Iran right now.



Perhaps Iran does indeed pose a threat to the Western world; however, Trump could not have been unaware of the consequences this would lead to. The entire Western world (and not just the West) is currently held hostage by Iran. Of course, oil is available not only in the Middle East, but oil prices could also rise to $200 per barrel, which would hurt the economies of many countries. Not to mention the inflation that many central banks have struggled with for years.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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