HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 1st December 2025.

December Opens Strong: Stocks Up, PMIs Down, Oil Rebounds.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

December opens with a surprisingly firm tone across global financial markets. Equities remain solidly positive for the year, with the MSCI World Index still trading just below its record highs from October. Despite concerns that higher global tariffs would damage economic activity, the impact has been more limited than feared. Supportive central banks and renewed optimism around artificial intelligence continue to underpin sentiment.

At the same time, attention is shifting toward consumer and holiday spending, an important indicator of how resilient demand remains amid affordability concerns and broader economic uncertainty. Early readings suggest holiday spending will be strong. Salesforce estimates global online Black Friday sales at $79 billion, while Adobe reported record online spending throughout the long weekend, including $11.8 billion on Black Friday alone. The National Retail Federation expects US November–December sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever.

Central bank policy remains a key theme into year-end. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB, BoC, BoJ and SNB are expected to hold steady.

US Outlook: Markets Fully Reprice a December Fed Cut

US markets have shifted decisively back toward expectations of a December rate cut after weeks of uncertainty. Implied rates currently reflect roughly 20 bps of cuts for December and nearly 30 bps for the January meeting. Dovish remarks from NY Fed President Williams, combined with softer economic data, have outweighed the more hawkish tone from Chair Powell earlier in November.

This week brings a busy economic calendar with PCE price data, personal income and spending figures, ISM manufacturing and services reports, jobless claims, ADP employment, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and corporate layoff announcements. Notably, there is no Non-Farm Payrolls release this week due to the calendar structure.

Holiday spending remains a central focus. Despite inflation and a cooling labor market, consumers were highly active throughout the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to reach $14.2 billion in online sales, while online spending over the weekend remained consistently strong. Retailers such as Macy’s, Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch and others saw mixed performance as investors try to gauge how durable consumer demand will be going into 2025.

The December 10 FOMC meeting may still be contentious. Powell is expected to aim for broad consensus on a 25 bps cut, with some members, such as Miran, leaning toward a larger move. A signal of a likely pause in January may help minimize dissent within the committee and maintain policy credibility. Historically, more than two dissenting votes are rare, making Powell’s messaging especially important.



Mixed Markets and Persistent Manufacturing Weakness

Asian markets began the week with a mixed tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell nearly 2% after weaker corporate investment figures and another month of contraction in the Manufacturing PMI. The PMI rose slightly to 48.7, but remained below the 50 threshold for the fifth straight month, reflecting soft domestic and global demand.

China’s factory activity also contracted for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting ongoing economic challenges despite an extended trade truce with the US. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose nearly 1%, supported by gains in tech, while the Shanghai Composite, Australia’s ASX 200, Taiwan’s Taiex, and Korea’s Kospi delivered modest or flat moves.

Weakness in regional PMIs reflects the lingering impact of US tariffs and weaker global manufacturing demand. However, exports in several Asian economies have shown signs of recovery in recent months, offering a partial offset to domestic softness.

US Equities: AI Momentum Continues Despite November Tech Volatility

US stock indices ended the post-Thanksgiving session higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all advancing. Still, the tech sector was volatile through November. Nvidia closed the month with a double-digit loss, while Oracle and Palantir also posted steep declines. In contrast, Alphabet recorded a nearly 14% monthly gain on the back of excitement surrounding its Gemini AI model, reinforcing that AI developments remain a major driver of sector leadership.

Oil Market Update: Prices Rebound as OPEC+ Holds Output Plan

Oil prices rose more than $1 per barrel early Monday after OPEC+ reaffirmed its intention to keep production hikes on hold during the first quarter. Brent traded above $63, while WTI hovered near $60.

However, November marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline for crude as expectations of a substantial supply surplus in 2026 weighed on sentiment. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, including US rhetoric toward Venezuela, Middle East instability, and damage to Kazakhstan’s pipeline infrastructure, continue to limit the downside and keep markets on edge.



FX Market: Dollar Softens on Rate-Cut Expectations

The US dollar weakened against major currencies, with USDJPY sliding to 155.33 and the EURUSD rising slightly to $1.1609. Rate-cut expectations, shifting risk appetite, and improving global equity sentiment all contributed to the dollar’s softer tone.

Crypto Markets Face Heavy Liquidations as Volatility Intensifies

Crypto markets experienced sharp losses after nearly $646 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across major exchanges. Bitcoin fell over 5% to around $86,000, while Ethereum dropped more than 6% to the $2,815 level. Altcoins such as Solana, XRP, BNB and Dogecoin also saw declines between 4% and 7%.

The majority of liquidations were long positions, indicating the move was driven primarily by forced unwinding rather than fundamental shifts in sentiment. Open interest in BTC and ETH futures fell further, suggesting the leverage accumulated during the October rally continues to wash out. With liquidity still thin and macro uncertainty elevated, intraday volatility is expected to remain high.



Conclusion: A Strong Start to December, but Risks Remain

The first days of December offer a picture of resilient consumer spending, strong global equity performance, and cautious central banks preparing for year-end policy decisions. Yet challenges remain: Asian manufacturing continues to weaken, tech stocks are navigating renewed volatility, oil markets face conflicting forces, and crypto remains exposed to leverage-driven swings.

As the month progresses, markets are likely to remain sensitive to inflation data, central bank guidance, and holiday-related consumer trends. For now, the balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic tone, but with the potential for sharp moves across asset classes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 2nd December 2025.

Asian Markets Steady as BoJ Rate-Hike Signals Boost Global Yields and Trigger Bitcoin Drop.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian markets held steady on Tuesday following a volatile start to the week, as strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped stabilise sentiment after hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan unsettled global markets. Investors had been reacting to fresh expectations of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike, a shift that pushed global bond yields higher and weighed on risk assets.

A successful auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds offered some reassurance. Solid demand, particularly from domestic pension funds, signalled that investors still see value in JGBs even as Japanese bond yields rise to multi-year highs. This helped calm a market that has been on edge since Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent comments revived speculation of policy tightening as early as this month.

The yen stabilised after Monday’s swings, and Japanese equities closed slightly higher, supported by financial stocks that typically benefit from higher interest rates. The backdrop of a weak yen and elevated import costs continues to place pressure on households and small businesses, further fuelling expectations that the BoJ may need to act sooner rather than later.

Carry Trade Risks in Focus as Investors Watch Yen Volatility

The renewed rise in global yields and the steady decline of the yen have also reignited discussions around the yen carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow yen cheaply to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. While some fear that growing currency volatility could trigger an unwind, several economists noted that current market conditions do not yet suggest a large-scale reversal.

Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed After Wall Street Pullback

Across the wider region, Asian markets delivered a mixed performance. Hong Kong and South Korea posted notable gains, with the Kospi supported by strong demand for technology names such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Mainland Chinese shares were more subdued.

This followed a soft session on Wall Street, where major indices retreated as rising global bond yields reduced appetite for equities. Investors continue to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy, especially as US manufacturing data indicates ongoing pressure on hiring and supply chains.

Bitcoin Price Drops on Thin Liquidity and Macro Stress

Cryptocurrencies faced sharper declines. Bitcoin fell below key support levels in a fast, liquidity-driven drop that traders attributed to the combination of thin weekend markets and the sudden spike in global yields following the BoJ’s policy shift.

Another emerging concern is the pending MSCI methodology review that may affect companies with heavy crypto exposure on their balance sheets. A potential reclassification could force index funds to adjust positions, prompting capital outflows. Market participants say traders are already factoring in the possibility of such forced moves.

Despite broader market weakness, selective crypto ETFs, particularly those tracking Solana and XRP, continued to attract inflows. On-chain data also shows that leverage in the system has been gradually declining, which may help reduce future volatility even if short-term sentiment remains cautious.

Bank of England Loosens Capital Requirements as UK Banks Pass Stress Tests

In the UK, the Bank of England introduced a notable regulatory shift by lowering its benchmark for bank capital requirements, the first major adjustment since the post-2008 reforms. After major banks passed the latest stress tests with a comfortable buffer, the BoE signalled confidence in the sector’s resilience and encouraged lenders to support households and businesses more actively.

The central bank also noted that capital requirements in the UK remain comparatively high relative to the US and EU, prompting a review of leverage rules. The move has been welcomed by banks and is expected to support credit conditions in the coming year.

UK Pension Funds Reduce US Equity Exposure Amid Tech Concentration Risks

Meanwhile, several large UK pension schemes managing more than £200bn have been reducing their exposure to US equities. The rapid rise of the Nasdaq, driven largely by a handful of megacap technology companies, has raised concerns about concentration risk and the possibility of an AI-fuelled valuation bubble.

To safeguard retirement savers, many funds have diversified into other regions or added hedging strategies to mitigate the risk of sharp corrections in overvalued sectors.

Outlook: December Set to Shape Global Market Direction

Looking ahead, investors expect December to be a defining month for global markets.

*The Bank of Japan’s rate decision will be crucial for yen stability and Asian markets.
*The Federal Reserve meeting could confirm whether rate cuts are nearing.
*Crypto markets remain sensitive to potential MSCI-related reclassifications.
*UK banks will be adjusting to new capital rules.

For now, the easing of JGB volatility and selective gains across Asian equities provide a measure of stability. But with rising global yields, currency swings, and fragile liquidity in several asset classes, markets remain braced for further shifts as year-end approaches.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 4th December 2025.

Global Markets Update: US Data Fuels Rate-Cut Hopes as Japan Edges Toward Tightening.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US markets continued to react positively to signs of a cooling labour market on Wednesday, as a surprisingly weak ADP employment report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another 25 bp rate cut at its 10 December meeting. ADP private payrolls fell by 32,000, far below forecasts, adding to speculation that policymakers may feel comfortable easing again.

The data helped extend the rally in Treasuries. Yields erased their overnight gains and moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year declining to 3.483%, back below the 3.50% threshold, while the 10-year slipped to 4.058%. The drop in yields provided a tailwind for equities:

*Dow Jones: +0.86%, approaching its record high from mid-November
*S&P 500: +0.30%
*Nasdaq: +0.17%, held back by early weakness in big tech

Microsoft was a notable drag after reports suggested the company had reduced AI-related sales targets, though later denials helped the stock stabilise. Meanwhile, the latest ISM Services PMI painted a mixed picture but did little to change expectations for policy easing next week.

Asia: Markets Mixed as Bank of Japan Prepares to Shift Gears

Asian equities delivered a mixed performance on Thursday, even as US markets hovered near record highs. The focus in the region centred squarely on Japan, where Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has been quietly preparing political leaders for the country’s first rate hike in years.

Ueda reportedly stressed the risks of a persistently weak yen and rising inflation during discussions with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who just last year referred to rate hikes as ‘stupid.’ The diplomatic effort appears to have worked, markets now view a December hike to 0.75% as almost certain and believe political resistance to tightening is diminishing.

However, the bigger uncertainty lies in the BOJ’s long-term rate trajectory, particularly as there is little clarity around where Japan’s neutral interest rate sits. The uneasy balance between political expectations and monetary policy will likely keep Japan’s bond market volatile.

Japanese Bond Yields Hit 17-Year Highs

The shift in expectations has pushed the 10-year JGB yield to 1.92%, its highest level since 2007. Analysts warn that yields near these levels may prompt Japanese banks to revisit their long-term bond strategies.

The move comes amid broader global bond-market jitters and ahead of the BOJ’s key meeting on 18-19 December.

*30-year JGB yield briefly touched 3.44%, a record high, before easing after a well-received government auction.
*Strong demand came from pension funds and foreign investors, even as domestic insurers remained cautious.



Asia-Pacific Market Snapshot

*Nikkei 225: +2.3% to 51,028.42, approaching its all-time high.
Gains were supported both by expectations of a Fed rate cut and speculation about BOJ tightening.
*SoftBank Group: +9.2% after its founder reiterated plans to prioritise AI investments following the exit from Nvidia.
Despite the jump, shares remain down nearly 28% over the past month.
*Hang Seng: +0.5%, reversing earlier losses on strength in tech and consumer stocks.
*Shanghai Composite: −0.1%
*Kospi: −0.2%, as tech and autos weighed on the index
*ASX 200: +0.3%, recovering mid-session
*Taiex: flat
*India Sensex: +0.2%

US futures were slightly higher in early Thursday trading.

US Market Recap: Stocks Edge Closer to Records

The broader US market continued edging towards new highs:

*S&P 500: +0.30%, now within 0.6% of its record
*Dow Jones: +0.9%
*Nasdaq: +0.2%

Semiconductor names led the charge, Microchip Technology surged 12.2% after forecasting stronger-than-expected profit and sales, and Marvell Technology rose nearly 8% on solid earnings.

Treasury yields continued to ease: the 10-year slipped to 4.06%, extending the move lower sparked by the weak ADP report.

Bitcoin also rebounded strongly, climbing back above $93,000 after last month’s slide below $81,000.

Oil prices firmed modestly early Thursday:

*WTI crude: $59.40 (+$0.45)
*Brent: $63.07 (+$0.40)

The US dollar softened slightly, slipping against major currencies except the yen.

FX Market Spotlight: Sterling Surges on Strong UK Data

The British pound delivered its strongest one-day rally since April, jumping 1.1% against the US dollar on Wednesday. Sterling held those gains early Thursday, trading near $1.335, its highest level in over a month.

The move came as UK business activity surprised to the upside:

*UK Composite PMI (Nov): 51.2 (forecast: 50.5)

The upbeat data supported the view that economic momentum is stabilising, easing concerns surrounding last week’s Budget. Strategists at Bank of America and MUFG highlighted that the rally reflected both stronger data and the unwinding of negative positions built up ahead of the Budget announcement.

The dollar’s softness was amplified by the weak US payrolls data and renewed speculation around the Federal Reserve leadership, after President Trump signalled that Kevin Hassett may be nominated as the next Fed Chair, fuelling expectations of faster rate cuts. The DXY fell 0.5% on the day.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.