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[Volkov Yuriy]

The gold market is booming: is $5,000 the target on the horizon?


Gold soared to $4,179 per ounce, a new record high. The market is being fueled by expectations of lower interest rates in the US, a weak dollar, metal purchases by central banks, and inflows into funds. Geopolitical risks are adding a “protection premium,” pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.

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5 factors that could push the price of gold even higher:

• Central banks continue to buy actively, especially the People's Bank of China — steady “strong” demand.
• The market is waiting for the Fed to ease its policy: lower interest rates make gold more attractive.
• Record inflows into funds investing in physical gold (according to WGC data).
• US-China geopolitical tensions are driving defensive buying.
• A weak dollar and growing private demand are supporting gold's status as a “safe haven.”

The story above $4,100 is just beginning: gold is accelerating, Q4 2025 promises profits for active clients, and FreshForex analysts see the peak surge in 2026. According to Bank of America estimates, gold could reach $5,000 in 2026.

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1. The promotion is valid from October 16 to October 23, 2025.

2. When trading metals XAUUSD, XAUAUD, XAUCHF, XAUEUR, XAUGBP, no swap fees or Swap Free commissions will be charged when positions are rolled over to the next day. Please refer to the CFD specifications.

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4. The company reserves the right to change the terms and duration of the promotion.


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 16, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 111100, SL 110000, TP 113500

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As предполагаed, after a strong decline followed by a rapid rebound of over 50%, the price gradually calmed down. This resulted in decreased volatility and reduced movement amplitude.

This is a clear sign of a forming correction, which will likely continue developing in the near future. From current levels, the price will rise slightly before attempting further decline toward the previously established low.

In this situation, cautious buy entries can be considered with a minimal target at the 50% Fibonacci level.

Investment idea: BUY 111100, SL 110000, TP 113500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 17, 2025 EURUSD:

EURUSD:

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The euro is strengthening toward the 1.17 area as the US dollar softens: market participants note a decline in the dollar index and cautious expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, while the release of several US macro indicators has been delayed by the budget standoff. As a result, risk appetite is rotating toward European currencies and the USD is surrendering part of its safety premium. At the time of writing, spot quotes confirm movement around 1.1700–1.1710, indicating a short-term fundamental impulse in favor of the euro.

Additional support for the euro comes from the euro area agenda: investors are watching final inflation readings and remarks from ECB officials on price dynamics and economic activity. After a spike in political uncertainty earlier in the month, interest in the euro has partially recovered, while lower US yields have narrowed the rate differential. This makes capital inflows into European assets more likely and improves the balance of factors for the pair versus early October.

On the US side, the focus remains on risks of an economic slowdown and on the Fed’s communication. Signals from some members suggest a readiness to support the economy if demand and labor indicators stay soft, which caps the dollar. Against this backdrop, the tactical scenario is a moderate rise in EURUSD amid headline-driven volatility.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1705, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1765.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 20, 2025 GBPUSD


GBPUSD:

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Sterling is supported primarily by a softer US dollar, as lower US yields and strong expectations of Fed easing reduce the premium for holding the dollar. As of Monday morning the pair holds near 1.34, reflecting a rebound in risk appetite.

The UK macro backdrop remains mixed: recent labor-market data pointed to slower hiring and a rise in unemployment, keeping the Bank of England cautious. Even so, in the short term GBP dynamics are driven more by the dollar factor and global sentiment than by local indicators — the softer USD and better tone in capital markets shift the balance of risks higher.

An additional driver for the pound is anticipation of Bank of England comments on the policy outlook as inflation normalizes. The absence of signals for urgent additional easing, alongside a downward repricing of the Fed’s rate path, supports sustained interest in GBP versus USD.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.3435, SL 1.3415, TP 1.3495

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT for 20-24 October 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4255.50, SL 4225.00, TP 4410.00

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Gold starts the new week at elevated levels: the spot price holds near $4,255 per ounce as markets continue to expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts and as long-term U.S. Treasury yields ease. Ongoing central-bank purchases and a recovery in investment demand add support: diversification of reserves and the metal’s protective role remain in focus, while trade and political tensions between the U.S. and China keep interest in safe assets alive.

Key drivers over the week include the tone of Fed remarks and U.S. inflation releases, the direction of bond yields, and news on global gold flows. Risks for long positions are tied to a slower-than-expected pace of policy easing and a firmer dollar, but steady official buying and elevated uncertainty still shape a constructive fundamental backdrop.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4255.50, SL 4225.00, TP 4410.00



#SP500: BUY 6660, SL 6640, TP 6900



U.S. equities begin the week supported by a move in 10-year Treasury yields below 4% and a heavy earnings calendar. Consensus for Q3 profits remains constructive, and investment in AI and related equipment continues to underpin demand for the largest names. By Friday’s close the benchmark hovered around 6,664; futures point to a neutral-to-positive start while investors watch this week’s macro releases.

The balance of factors favors moderate upside: easing financial conditions, stable profit expectations, and no clear signs of a sharp demand slowdown in key sectors. Counter-risks include softness in some cyclicals, occasional stress in credit, and geopolitics. In this setup, buying on modest dips with tight risk control looks reasonable.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6660, SL 6640, TP 6900



#BRENT: SELL 61.00, SL 61.30, TP 55.00



Brent enters the new week near $61 per barrel. The near-term backdrop weighs on prices: agencies and banks flag faster supply growth in 2025–2026, including as OPEC+ curbs gradually unwind and non-OPEC output rises. At the same time, demand forecasts are turning more cautious amid slower global growth and structural trends such as improved efficiency and transport electrification. Trade frictions between the U.S. and China and headlines on U.S. inventories add to buyer caution.

Overall, the supply-demand balance tilts toward surplus, limiting upside unless fresh supply disruptions emerge. Risks to short positions include sudden outages, signals of deeper OPEC+ restraint, or a quicker-than-expected demand rebound in Asia. The base case is continued downward pressure with brief news-driven rebounds.

Trading recommendation: SELL 61.00, SL 61.30, TP 55.00

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for October 21, 2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 24646.2-24923.7, TP1-25201.2, TP2-25210.9.

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• Long-term trend: up. The maximum volume cluster of the current contract is located in the 24,500.0–24,700.0 range. At the moment, investment transactions in #NQ100 are taking place above this range, which indicates buyer strength.



• Medium-term trend: up. The maximum volume cluster of the medium-term trend is located in the 24,700.0–24,760.0 range. At the moment, investment transactions in #NQ100 are taking place above this range, which indicates buyer strength.

• The value area for buying from a margining standpoint lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the 21.10.2025 high.

• Price of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone — 24,923.7.

• Price of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone — 24,646.2.

• Intraday targets: renewal of the 21.10.2025 highs — 25,201.2.

• Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the SNKZ — 25,210.9.



• Investment recommendations: buy from the value area upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Buy: 24,646.2–24,923.7, Take Profit 1 — 25,201.2, Take Profit 2 — 25,210.9.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Silver rally: Are you in?


Silver (XAGUSD) just hit a new all-time high, soaring above $53/oz! The surge is driven by a real physical shortage in London (record-low LBMA stocks, spike in lease rates, and COMEX premium), flight to safety amid dovish Fed expectations and gold’s rally, and booming industrial demand from solar energy and electronics. A short squeeze is also underway due to the rising cost of borrowing silver.

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5 key drivers behind the XAGUSD bull run:

• 1.The market is short on metal – demand consistently outpaces supply.
• 2.Physical squeeze in London – inventories are depleted, spot trades above COMEX, borrowing costs surge.
• 3.Industrial super-demand – energy transition fuels silver use in solar, electronics, and EVs.
• 4.Dovish macro backdrop – Fed rate cuts expected, weaker USD, inflows into safe havens.
• 5. Capital inflows – silver ETFs and bullion/coin demand picking up momentum.

FreshForex analysts see further upside: the breakout to new highs confirms strong demand for physical silver and sustained investor interest. The rally in gold and robust industrial trends give the silver market breadth and staying power. Q4 2025 offers great potential for active traders, but the strongest move is expected in Q1 2026, as Fed policy loosens and supply remains tight. Don’t wait — fund your account now using promo code TOPUP25 and profit from the silver trend with a 202% drawdown bonus!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 22, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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The yen finds support amid rising market volatility and position trimming ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on October 29–30. Political changes in Tokyo come with an emphasis on sustained wage growth as a condition for meeting the price objective, increasing market sensitivity to potential tightening signals in the coming months.

At the same time, expectations of a Fed rate cut at the end of October limit the upside in U.S. Treasury yields and reduce the dollar’s appeal versus the yen. The mere possibility that the BoJ may take further steps toward normalization keeps USDJPY from revisiting yearly highs.

Additional support for the yen comes from improving trade indicators and vigilance over the risk of verbal intervention by Japanese authorities if the currency weakens excessively. The combination of these factors provides a fundamental case for a downward correction in USDJPY.

Trade recommendation: SELL 151.65, SL 152.15, TP 150.90

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 23, 2025 NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 25200, SL 25050, TP 26600.

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After a fierce battle during which the price fluctuated wildly, forming a narrow correction range, the price calmed down slightly. Judging by all appearances, buyers emerged victorious in this situation once again.

This is indicated by the price reaching its previously established maximum. The price paused here, presumably to prepare for a decisive upward surge. This will lead to a new historical maximum.

Thus, the formation of a protracted upward momentum, or more precisely, its fifth wave, is also likely to continue. The possible trajectory of movement is indicated in the chart above.

Investment idea: BUY 25200, SL 25050, TP 26600.


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[Volkov Yuriy]

October’s top stock performers: #AMD, #Amazon, #Tesla & more

In October, FreshForex clients most frequently traded stocks like #AMD, #Amazon, #GoDaddy, #Tesla, and #Moderna — and these very assets showed the highest share of profitable trades. Capitalize on strong demand momentum and high liquidity: with earnings season and the holiday rush ahead, the “window of opportunity” is still open.

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Outlook through the end of 2025:

#AMD: Shares could rise following the $6B AI compute deal with OpenAI and Oracle’s reported order of 50,000 next-gen MI450 chips.
#Amazon: Strong earnings on October 30, solid AWS growth, advertising contributions, and the fall Prime Big Deal Days may keep the stock bullish.
#GoDaddy: Stock may face pressure if SMB ARPU/inflows slow, plus FX headwinds could dampen August’s raised full-year guidance.
#Tesla: Growth potential supported by record 497K deliveries, 12.5 GWh energy deployments in Q3, and expansion of FSD v14 (Supervised).
#Moderna: Stock remains under pressure amid limited revenue visibility, delayed UK shipments, and postponed approval of its flu+COVID combo vaccine to 2026.

According to FreshForex analysts, the outlook for these stocks remains driven by AI investments and seasonal demand. But the strongest growth impulse is likely in Q1 2026, especially if the Fed eases policy and announced tech projects go live.

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