HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 07th October 2024.

Oil bets most Bullish in 2 Years, Stocks pared some gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The September NFP report was a blowout by almost every measure. It quickly knocked out lingering fears of a recession this year or early next, but also knocked out expectations for another jumbo -50 bp rate cut this year. So, what’s the market signaling right now? ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?

Asia & European Sessions:

*Equity markets have moved broadly higher across Asia, and European markets are also finding buyers in early trade. Recent US data have boosted growth optimism, and Chinese officials seem more committed to growth boosting stimulus measures.
*Japanese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nikkei rising by 2.05%, driven by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Power sectors.
*European equities continue to benefit from a positive US jobs report. The DAX and FTSE 100 have already started to pare opening gains and the DAX is down -0.1%, while the FTSE 100 up a mere 0.04%.
*Data:German manufacturing orders plunged -3.8% m/m in August & U.K. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in September, according to the Halifax index. German data added to signs that the German economy will contract again this year.
*This Week: The inflation data are in view and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. We expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
*Earnings season looms: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on Friday, with PepsiCo in the spotlight tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex traded within Friday’s range so far today and is at 102.32.
*The USDJPY surged to test 149.00 immediately after the data before drifting down to 148.80. Still, this is the strongest since July and early August were the pair hit a multidecade peak at 161.69 on July 3. Currebntly is at 148.13
*According to Bloomberg, Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. USOILhas lifted to $74.63 per barrel as markets watch developments in the Middle East. Gold meanwhile is at USD 2649.19 per ounce.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 08th October 2024.

Stock markets remain under pressure; bonds find buyers.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*The markets were weaker Monday as players continued to adjust to Friday’s strong September data and price out aggressive rate cut expectations. In fact Fed funds futures have not only taken out risks for -50 bps next month, but now reflect chances for no action at all.
*Wall Street was in the red all session and the selloff extended into the close, in part given the pop in rates.
*Asian markets mostly corrected, with the Hang Seng leading the way and plunging -7.1% as mainland China bourses returned from a week-long holiday. The CSI 300 rose 5.8% in catch up trade, but failed to match the rally seen elsewhere over the past week.
*Investors were disappointed by the briefing from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, which did not present any additional stimulus measures. Instead, a CNY 100 billion investment plan scheduled for next year will be brought forward. China also announced a plan to issue special purpose bonds designed to stimulate local government growth.
*According to FT: ”Hong Kong equities were on track for their worst single-day performance since the global financial crisis on Tuesday, even as stocks in mainland China rose on their first day of trading after an extended break.”
*RBA minutes suggested that the bank will keep interest rates at their 12-year high until inflation shows consistent signs of nearing its target. Minutes also reveal that the board considered both tightening and easing monetary policy, depending on future economic conditions. For now, they have decided to maintain the rate at 4.35%, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex closed at 102.493 after hitting a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
*USOil rallied 3.9% to $77.87 per barrel prior to retreating to $75.44.
*Gold holds $2620 floor for a 3rd week in a row.
*Treasury yields hit their highest levels since the summer. The NASDAQ dropped -1.18%, while the S&P500 slumped -0.96%, with the Dow off -0.94%.
*Nikkei lost 1.2% to 38,861.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 09th October 2024.

Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
*Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
*The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
*Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
*USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
*Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 10th October 2024.

Stocks mixed after a largely higher close, Disagreement in Fed; Eyes on US Inflation.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Treasuries sold off on the session with few buyers willing to step in to backstop the market ahead of CPI. Fading rate cut bets continued to weigh.
*FOMC minutes reflected a tough choice on the September 18 rate cut. There was considerable disagreement over the size of the move. A “substantial majority” favored the aggressive -50 bp action. “Some” preferred a quarter-point reduction although a “few” could have supported the smaller move. All, however, supported lowering rates at last month’s meeting as Governor Bowman dissented in favor of -25 bps.
*Wall Street caught a bid, helped by expectations for a tame CPI Thursday, with the Dow and S&P500 rallying to fresh record highs. The Dow climbed 1.03% to 42,512 and the S&P500 was up 0.7% to 5792. These are the 35th and the 44th record peaks of the year, respectively. The NASDAQ advanced 0.6%.
*Asia Session: Chinese stocks surged following the announcement of stimulus measures, as investors shifted their attention to upcoming data. Chinese investors will be looking ahead to the finance ministry press conference on Saturday for insights into fiscal stimulus plans.
*Japanese stocks present the highest weekly inflows in 6 months from foreign investors as the Yen weakened following dovish comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
*US CPI preview: CPI is expected to post modest gains in September of 0.1% overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. As-expected September figures would result in the y/y headline slowing to 2.3% from 2.5% in August, and well below the 40-year high of 9.1% from June 2022. Over the rest of the year the y/y gauges will be restrained by hard comparisons that could see the potential for a slower pace of rate cuts, especially if the economy and labor market remain solid.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex had a solid day, firming for a 6th straight session to 102.92, the highest since mid-August.
*Fading rate hike bets on the BoJ and diminishing rate cut hopes from the Fed saw USDJPY rally to 149.35, the highest since August 1.
*USOil rose after two days of decline, with UKOil trading close to $77 a barrel. The US crude stockpiles expanded the most since April, while the market remains tense over Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran, as Iran has threatened to unleash thousands of missiles if necessary. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting Iranian oil infrastructure and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in over a month.
*Gold extended decline to $2605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 11th October 2024.

Treasuries close mixed, Wall Street lower, US Dollar steady after data – Eyes on PPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The hotter CPI and cooler jobless claims made for mixed action in the markets. There was also some marginal impact from the 30-year auction and Fedspeak.

Treasuries were bifurcated in a curve steepening trade with the front end outperforming. The jump in claims, even if due in part to weather, strikes and other factors, supported expectations for additional rate cuts ahead, though of the -25 bp variety. The 2-year yield closed -5.6 bps lower at 3.966%. Dip buyers from the 4% rate also underpinned. Meanwhile, the long end was heavy on the hotter CPI and with the weight of supply. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.067%, but had spiked to 4.115% on the pop in inflation. The curve closed at 10.4 bps from 4 bps Wednesday.

Wall Street finished in the red after the Dow and S&P500 hit fresh records previously. The indexes were well off their lows at the end of the day. The NASDAQ dipped -0.05%, while the S&P500 was -0.21% lower and the Dow was down -0.14%.

The USDIndex finished little changed at 102.70 after jumping to a session high of 103.178 on the CPI then slipping to the day’s low of 102.720 on the claims numbers.

Oil climbed 3.26% to $75.63 per barrel and Gold rose 0.84% to $2629.51 per ounce.

Implied Fed funds futures continue to price in -25 bp cuts ahead, with some chance for no action rather than another jumbo -50 bps. Indeed, the latter has been priced out. This view was supported by the FOMC minutes yesterday that showed a big debate and some push back over the decision to lower rates by -50 bps on September 18. We continue to expect two quarter point reductions over the rest of this year.

In spite of being data dependent, we highly doubt the FOMC will skip November as they kick off their normalization process, especially as officials will be loath to do a start-stop so soon. And Chair Powell and others have told us to monitor the dot plot reflecting -25 bps in November and December as the base case.

Looking Ahead:

The hotter CPI puts attention on PPI and the inflation components of the consumer sentiment report due out Friday. Respective gains of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for headline and core producer prices in September after increases of 0.2% and 0.3% in August. Results in line with the estimates would see the headline pace dip to a 1.6% y/y rate from 1.7% y/y previously, while the core rate should rise to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% y/y.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 15th October 2024.

Global Markets Mixed Amid Earnings Optimism and Easing Oil Concerns.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The market’s momentum, fueled by optimism around earnings reports, falling interest rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation without triggering a recession.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European futures rose while Asian stocks showed mixed performance following Wall Street’s record highs.
*Chinese shares saw extended losses after disappointing data showed China’s broader export growth slowed to just 2.4% year-on-year, the weakest since May, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. The lack of clear fiscal stimulus from Chinese authorities continues to weigh on investor sentiment and risk appetite in Chinese equities.
*Technology stocks in Asia followed the strong lead from their US counterparts, with the S&P500 gaining nearly 1% to reach its 46th record high this year. Despite concerns over lowered Q3 forecasts, investors seem to be betting on positive earnings surprises. The Nasdaq also advanced by 0.8%, led by gains in Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., and Tesla Inc. Financial stocks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup rose ahead of their earnings releases.
*Nikkei hit its highest level since July, with benchmarks in Australia and Taiwan also trending upward. Japanese stocks were among the strongest performers so far today, with the Yen maintaining strength near a key psychological level against the US Dollar.
*Earnings reports: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex strengthened against most major currencies.
*The USDJPY slightly dipped to 149.34 from 149.96. The EURUSD broke 1.09 and extended to 1.0830.
*USoil dropped sharply to $70.60 per barrel from $4.18 high yesterday. Oil prices declined as concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased. Oil and energy shares dropped after reports indicated Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil or nuclear sites.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.