Forex News from InstaForex

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold edges lower as Middle East tensions ease



The yellow metal continues to decline, plunging investors into gloom and prompting them to reassess their trading strategies. However, some analysts are confident that the precious metal will rebound in the near future, viewing its decline as a natural step before another rally. The optimism of experts bolsters investors, although some market players remain skeptical about the near-term prospects of gold. On Monday, April 22, the precious metal sharply fell amid reduced geopolitical risks and decreased demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, gold lost more than 2.7%. According to estimates, gold's decline at the end of the day was the most significant since June 2022. The metal depreciated amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Such a development reduced the risk premium in the market. At the moment, gold continues to trade downwards after the sharpest decline in two years. The catalyst for the current downtrend in the precious metal was the de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Against this backdrop, many experts are pessimistic about the near-term prospects of gold. They believe that investors will turn to other sources of capital preservation. According to some specialists, prices for the precious metal may break below the $2,300 per ounce level and then plummet to $2,200 per ounce. Analysts recommend preparing for a significant decline in the yellow metal amid extremely overbought conditions, as indicated by the RSI on the daily chart.




The precious metal was also weighed down by the high likelihood that the Federal Reserve would maintain a tight monetary policy much longer than expected in early 2024. The focus of market attention is on the publication of the key inflation indicator in the United States - the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the regulator pays special attention to when assessing risks. The release of this report is scheduled for Friday, April 26. According to preliminary forecasts, the indicator decreased to 2.6% year-on-year in March. Recall that its February value was 2.8% year-on-year. Many investors are counting on some easing of geopolitical tensions. At the same time, market participants are switching to riskier assets such as stocks. According to CFTC data, the volume of major market players' long positions in gold futures and options is at a four-year high. The reason for profit-taking was the fairly rapid decline in the value of the precious metal. In addition, in recent months, gold has appreciated despite a steep rally in the greenback. In the current situation, the risks of a deep correction in the precious metal are increasing. However, according to some analysts, there are favorable factors contributing to further gans in gold. Tailwinds for the yellow metal will be the US Federal Reserve's rate cuts, global instability, and the growing US government debt. Against this backdrop, even economists at Bank of America, who are skeptical about the prospects of the precious metal, expect its price to rise to $3,000 by 2025. Analysts at Citi Bank are also bullish on gold, expecting it to gain in the next 6–18 months. Many investors adhere to this position, asserting that the likely record of $3,000 per ounce will be surpassed in a couple of years. Improvement in forecasts for gold prices in 2024 boosts investor optimism. It is worth noting that these forecasts anticipate an increase in the value of the metal in the near future. Confidence in such a scenario allows market players to weather the current market woes and prepare for an upcoming rise in gold.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/375065

News are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Ju0pXN

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Japan to intervene market once again?



Last week, the USD/JPY pair experienced its strongest drop since November 2022, falling by more than 4%. Many traders suppose that the Japanese government, which has twice entered the market to support its currency, was involved in the sharp decline of the dollar against the yen. They do not rule out that the authorities will soon repeat the scenario of 2022 when they conducted three consecutive currency interventions. Why did the yen surge? Last week, the Japanese currency showed three jumps against its American counterpart, two of which were probably caused by Tokyo's interventions. The first sharp strengthening of the yen occurred on Monday, April 29, after the JPY tumbled against the dollar to a new 34-year low of 160.245 due to a more dovish than anticipated Bank of Japan meeting rhetoric. At its April meeting, the BOJ kept rates in their current range, which was set in March, and made it clear that it was not going to raise the rate anytime soon as it was not confident in inflation stability. For the second time, the yen rose rapidly against the dollar on Wednesday, May 1, a couple of hours after the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's meeting. At that meeting, the regulator also kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated its intention to keep them high until inflation starts to fall steadily. The prospect that the huge gap between US and Japanese rates will persist for a long time allowed the dollar to keep from falling against the yen. However, the greenback dropped after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a rate hike was unlikely to be the central bank's next move. The striking resilience of the USD/JPY pair is thought to have forced Tokyo to conduct a second intervention to support the yen. Curiously, the Japanese government refused to comment on the fact that it was involved in the sharp rise in the JPY on both occasions. Nevertheless, Bloomberg analysts said the other day that Japanese authorities spent more than 9 trillion yen last week to support their weakening currency. The third wave of yen strengthening occurred on Friday, May 3. This was a natural rise in the Japanese currency caused by fundamental factors, namely, weak statistical data on the US labor market. The Nonfarm Payrolls report published at the end of the week unveiled that last month American employers created 175 thousand jobs, which is the smallest increase in six months. The reading was below the expectations of a rise of 243 thousand. At the same time, payrolls advanced by 3.9% at an annualized rate, which is also below the 4.0% forecast and down from March's 4.1% growth. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9% from 3.8% in April. Signs of a cooling US labor market have intensified traders' views of an earlier US rate cut. Now, investors assume that the regulator will start cutting the benchmark rate in September instead of November. Also, after the employment report, traders increased the probability that the Fed would impose two rounds of monetary policy easing this year. They now expect the regulator to lower rates by about 47 bps by the end of the year, compared to the projected 42 bps before the nonfarm payrolls were published. Strengthening dovish sentiment among traders around the Fed's future policy has put heavy pressure on the dollar. On Friday, the US dollar index tested a 3-month low of 104.52, while against the yen it weakened by more than 1% to the lowest level of 151.86 last seen on April 10. The yen may need another bailout On Monday, the USD/JPY pair stopped its multi-day decline, starting a rapid rise. Thus, at the time of the publication, the major jumped by almost 0.5% to the level of 153.98 from Friday's close. The comments of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the alleged Japanese interventions last week were the main driver for the asset. The official noted that the Japanese currency had strengthened sharply. However, she did not comment on whether Japan had intervened to support the yen. "I'm not going to comment on whether they did or didn't intervene," Yellen told reporters on Saturday, stressing that interventions should be aimed only at reducing market volatility, not at manipulating exchange rates. The fact that the US government has not confirmed the intervention has encouraged dollar bulls. However, this could not be a very good idea given today's low liquidity. On Monday, markets in Japan are closed due to Children's Day celebrations, which is likely to result in lower trading volumes. Since Japanese authorities chose calm periods last week to intervene, traders should now be on high alert throughout the day. Valentin Marinov, an analyst at Credit Agricole, said that Tokyo might lower USD/JPY once again. He supposes that they may enter the market again in the very near future to maximize the effect of their previous interventions, taking advantage of the reduced liquidity during the holidays. The same viewpoint is supported by his colleagues at Goldman Sachs. They also see a high risk of Tokyo's repeated intervention this week, as the macroeconomic situation as a whole remains quite negative for the yen. "But, buying time is still valuable, as it reduces the potential for economic disruptions from the exchange rate adjustment and could stabilize the currency until the economic backdrop becomes more supportive for JPY," experts said. Meanwhile, the weekly report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that last week, traders abandoned record bets on the yen's drop. Leveraged funds and asset managers now have about 168,388 contracts tied to bets on the yen falling in the coming weeks. "Traders edged back from record bets on yen weakness this past week, in a period that included a likely bout of intervention by the Japanese," Bloomberg analysts said. Speculative traders have been opening short positions on the Japanese currency since early 2023. That means that some down bets may be more sustainable than those made in recent weeks, when the yen's fall against the dollar accelerated. For this reason, many analysts, including Rabobank's Jane Foley, are confident that Japan's Finance Ministry will not limit itself to just two interventions and will continue to stabilize its currency as needed. She thinks that Tokyo will have to lower the dollar/yen exchange rate more than once to really undermine the resolve of many speculators.

News are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3WoUdYJ

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Growth continues: Wall Street in green for third day in a row



American stock indices ended trading higher on Monday, marking their third consecutive positive session. Investors are once again raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year. Global stock indicators also rose amid optimism about a likely rate cut. At the same time, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar after a sharp rise last week associated with the proposed currency intervention. Expectations for US central bank rate cuts fell during the year due to more persistent inflation. Some investors began to fear that a rate cut would not materialize at all, sending markets tumbling in April. However, Friday's data showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April. That eased pressure on the Federal Reserve, making it less likely that rates would remain high for long. Combined with an unexpectedly positive corporate earnings season, this has given investors fresh momentum in recent sessions. Last week, the Fed signaled it was willing to consider cutting interest rates but wanted to make sure inflation was falling sustainably before making that decision. Fed officials repeated that statement Monday. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the current level of interest rates should slow the economy enough to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. However, a strong labor market provides time to wait. Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 46 basis points by the end of 2024, with the first cut forecast in September or November, according to rate probability app LSEG. Stocks on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as in Asia, rose. The US labor market report on Friday was softer than expected, leading to renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy as early as September. The dollar index, which measures the US currency's exchange rate against six major trading partners, fell for the fourth session in a row. It comes after Friday's data showed the weakest job growth since October, allaying fears that the Fed could raise rates again. However, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain as the market hopes interest rates will be restrictive enough to slow the economy and reduce the rate of price increases, Conger said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 176.59 points, or 0.46%, to 38,852.27. The S&P 500 added 52.95 points, or 1.03%, to 5,180.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 192.92 points, or 1.19%, to 16,349.25. Most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended trading on a positive note. The energy sector was one of the top gainers, thanks in part to U.S. natural gas futures hitting their highest level in 14 weeks. Chipmaker shares were broadly higher on Monday, including Arm Holdings, which added 5.2% ahead of this week's earnings release. Micron Technology (MU.O) shares rose 4.7% after Baird upgraded the stock. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) also rose 3.4% and 6.1%, respectively, regaining ground lost after last week's disappointing earnings. Paramount Global (PARA.O) shares rose 3.1% after exclusive talks with Skydance Media ended without a deal, allowing a special committee to consider offers from other bidders. Tyson Foods (TSN.N) shares fell 5.7% despite beating Wall Street's second-quarter profit expectations as the company warned of pressure on consumers from persistent inflation. At the same time, shares of Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) fell 9.7% to a record low after weak guidance for second-quarter earnings. The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 150 new highs and 54 new lows. In Europe, the cross-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.53%. It comes amid signs the European Central Bank is confident of cutting rates as euro zone inflation continues to slow, three ECB policy makers said. Philip Lane, Gediminas Simkus and Boris Vujicic said inflation and growth data supported their belief that eurozone inflation, which stood at 2.4% in April, would fall to the central bank's 2% target by the middle of next year. of the year. The MSCI World Shares Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.50% to close at 1,066.73, its highest level since June 2022. Markets in the UK and Japan were closed due to holidays. The dollar index was down 0.07% at 105.10, lifting the euro 0.07% to $1.0766. Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 earnings per share growth forecast for companies in the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) to 6% from 3%. The bank noted that a 10% annual rise in Brent oil prices adds about 2.5 percentage points to annual earnings per share growth, and a 10% decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate adds about the same. Treasury yields fell as investors weighed in on sluggish job creation last week, bolstering views that the U.S. economy is not overheated and will not be hampered by rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 1.3 basis points to 4.487% from 4.5% late Friday. Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 43 basis points by year-end, with the first cut likely to come in September, according to rate probability app LSEG. Traders have cut their expectations to one cut in recent weeks due to signs of persistent inflation. Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia raised June crude oil prices for most regions. In addition, the unlikely prospect of a quick ceasefire in the Gaza Strip has revived fears of renewed fighting between Hamas and Israeli forces. U.S. crude rose 37 cents to $78.48 a barrel and Brent crude rose 37 cents to $83.33 a barrel. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) hit its highest level since February 2023, adding 0.66%, while the blue-chip China index (.CSI300) rose 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose 4.7% last week, posting its longest daily winning streak since 2018. The index closed 0.55% higher on Monday. Elsewhere, traders remain wary of potential yen volatility following past suspicions that Japanese authorities would intervene to stem the currency's sharp decline. Tokyo is believed to have spent more than 9 trillion yen ($59 billion) to prop up its currency last week, pushing the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 to about a one-month high of 151.86 per dollar, according to the Bank of Japan. within a week. On Monday, the yen gave up some of its ground and was last trading at 153.95 per dollar, representing a decline of 0.63%. Gold prices rose amid a weakening dollar. US gold futures for June delivery rose 0.9% to $2,331.20 an ounce. Bitcoin added 0.65% to $63,343.00, while Ethereum was down 1.2% to $3,077.3.

News are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/44xd2uF

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Wall Street and rising stocks: what are experts saying ahead of inflation data?



At the end of the working week, the U.S. stock market showed a slight increase. All three major indices - S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq - ended the week with positive dynamics. The largest growth among them was demonstrated by Dow Jones, which showed the best results since mid-December. The growth of shares took place against the background of analyzing by investors the statements of representatives of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA. They are expecting new inflation data to be released next week. Comments from a number of Fed members clarified investors' expectations ahead of the publication of important economic indicators. Chuck Carlson, head of Horizon Investment Services, emphasized that many prefer not to make significant decisions before the release of inflation data. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, noted the slowdown in economic growth, but the timing of a possible reduction in Fed rates remains uncertain. At the same time, the President of FRB Dallas Laurie Logan expressed doubts about the adequacy of the current monetary policy to reduce inflation to the target level of 2%. Next week, the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to publish consumer and manufacturing price indexes, which will provide additional data on inflation. Experts suggest that the upcoming CPI report will reveal core inflation at 3.6% annualized, which would be the highest rate in three years. Paul Nolty, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois, expressed the view that the Federal Reserve is looking to lower interest rates rather than raise them. He emphasized that the strategy of keeping rates high for the long term would prove to be highly disadvantageous unless economic conditions deteriorate significantly. In addition, the University of Michigan's preliminary analysis of consumer sentiment in May showed a significant drop in optimism among U.S. consumers since August 2021, with both short- and long-term inflation expectations strengthening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index rose 125.08 points or 0.32% to 39,512.84. The S&P 500 Index increased 8.6 points or 0.16% to 5,222.68, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 5.40 points or 0.03% to 16,340.87. Among the 11 key sectors of the S&P 500, consumer staples companies posted the biggest gains, while stocks from the consumer discretionary sector performed the worst. The quarterly reporting season is nearing completion. According to LSEG, of the 459 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have already reported, 77% of them beat analysts' expectations. Nvidia shares rose 1.3% after news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's top chip maker and a key supplier to Nvidia, reported a nearly 60% increase in April sales. Novavax shares jumped 98.7% following the announcement of a license agreement worth up to $1.2 billion with Sanofi. SoundHound AI shares rose 7.2% after the company reported revenue that exceeded estimates for the first quarter. A rally in global stock markets lifted share prices in Europe to record highs on Friday, thanks to strong corporate reports and expectations that central banks will soon cut interest rates. At the same time, the dollar strengthened despite signs of slowing economic growth in the US. European markets posted their biggest weekly gains since late January. The cross-regional STOXX 600 index rose for the sixth consecutive session and the FTSE 100 index in London reached a new record high. Outstanding financial results in both Europe and North America, as well as equity gains in Tokyo and other Asian regions, helped the MSCI Global Index come close to setting a new record closing high, remaining just 0.2% below that mark. U.S. equity markets stabilized thanks to a successful reporting season in which corporate results generally beat expectations, according to Deke Mullarkey, managing director of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Management in Boston. "It definitely added to confidence that economic growth is being sustained, with companies successfully maintaining their profitability," said Mullarkey. In Europe, the prospect of lower interest rates continues to drive equity markets across the eurozone, making them attractive to global asset allocators, he added. Europe's STOXX 600 index ended the trading day up 0.77%, Britain's FTSE was up 0.63% and the MSCI global equity index was up 0.31%, just 0.2% below a new closing high. The U.S. dollar recovered from its initial decline and posted modest gains as investors analyzed U.S. consumer sentiment data and reacted to extensive comments from Federal Reserve officials.

News are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3UXZN32

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Powell reassures investors: Nasdaq closes at record high, with focus on price index



The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high on Tuesday amid the close, while the S&P 500 and Dow also posted gains as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors ahead of a major consumer inflation report expected on Wednesday. Producer prices in the US rose more than expected in April, especially due to significant increases in prices for services and goods, which forced investors to reconsider expectations for a reduction in interest rates in September. However, speaking on Tuesday, Powell characterized the latest PPI data as mixed rather than an indication that the economy is warming, taking into account downward revisions to data from the previous period as well. Powell's comment that he doesn't expect any near-term interest rate hikes despite recent data on high inflation also added to investor optimism. "The market is now more confident in high rates over the long term. Much of the discussion has centered on the possibility of rate hikes, and Powell emphasized that this is not currently on the table," said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at Charlotte, North Carolina-based 248 Ventures. She also noted that the rise in stocks was observed against the backdrop of falling Treasury yields. "The bond market seems to be adapting and the stock market is responding to the bond market," Bell added. However, ahead of Wednesday, investors were cautiously awaiting consumer price index data to see whether the surprise growth recorded in the first quarter and April would continue. Persistent inflation and a stable labor market have prompted a revision of expectations for the Federal Reserve's initial rate cut from March to September. However, the stock market has posted strong gains this year on the back of strong, better-than-expected quarterly earnings and the prospect of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq index made a strong run to its record set on April 11, the S&P 500 ended the trading day 0.1% below its closing high on March 28. Likewise, the Dow Jones closed at less than 1% of its record high, also reached on March 28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126.60 points, or 0.32%, to 39,558.11. The S&P 500 added 25.26 points, or 0.48%, to 5,246.68, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 122.94 points, or 0.75%, to 16,511.18. Among the 11 key industrial sectors in the S&P index, consumer staples posted the biggest decline, losing 0.2%, while the technology sector led gains, adding 0.9%. Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares rose 0.7% after Google showed off innovations in its use of artificial intelligence, including an update to its Gemini chatbot and improvements to its search engine. Home Depot (HD.N) shares closed down 0.1% after falling more than 2% on the day. The decline followed the retailer's quarterly report, which showed an unexpected decline in same-store sales as consumers switched to smaller home projects and cut spending on big-ticket items. Alibaba's US-traded shares fell 6% after announcing an 86% drop in fourth-quarter profit. Shares of athletic footwear maker On Holding jumped 18.3% after the company raised its full-year sales forecast ahead of quarterly expectations thanks to strong demand for its sneakers. US President Joe Biden has announced steep tariff increases on imports of a range of Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products. Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Li Auto, also listed in the U.S., fell more than 2%, while shares of Tesla (TSLA.O) rose more than 3%. AMC Entertainment (AMC.N) shares soared nearly 32% to $6.85, while Koss Corp (KOSS.O) shares rose 40.7% to $6.15, among other stocks popular during the 2021 meme rally. year and shares in a short position. On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), AMC and GameStop were the most actively traded stocks, with advancers outnumbering decliners 2.43 to 1, with 358 new highs and 31 new lows. Asian stock markets were higher on Wednesday, while the US dollar weakened as investors digested mixed US producer price data and awaited a key consumer price report that could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.38% to hit a new 15-month high during the trading session. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.58%. The latest data showed U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April, indicating persistent inflation at the start of the second quarter. Shares of GameStop (GME.N) and AMC (AMC.N), popular among retail investors, jumped significantly after messages from Keith Gill, known as "Growling Kitten", leading to discussions about the possible return of a key figure of the 2021 meme rally. In the Chinese market, stocks started the day lower, with the blue-chip index .CSI300 down 0.16% and the Hang Seng Index .HSI in Hong Kong down 0.22%. US President Joe Biden announced significant tariff hikes on some Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products. In currency markets, the dollar continued to slide as investors held back action ahead of consumer price index data, while the euro neared its one-month high, last trading at $1.0817. The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, was seen at 105.01. The yen traded at 156.36 per dollar, having hit a two-week low of 156.80 on Tuesday, raising fears of new currency interventions by Japanese regulators. On April 29, the yen fell to a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar, followed by aggressive yen buying that traders and analysts speculated was carried out by the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Commodity prices rose in response to the threat of major wildfires in Canada's oil sands and ahead of expected declines in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories later in the day. The US WTI crude oil price rose 0.4% to $82.71 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $78.39 a barrel. The spot price of gold remained virtually unchanged at $2,356.79 per ounce.

News are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3K2qCNe

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD loses its downward momentum



Today, the dollar index is trying to limit the falls of the last few days and is above 104.2. The EUR/USD exchange rate approached the 1.0900 mark. This is more of an emotional outburst. The markets are evaluating the new inflation figures in the US. Already today, emotions should subside, as traders will start analyzing the situation with a cool head. After the inflation publication, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis confirmed that it will probably be necessary to keep the rate at the current level for some more time and expressed doubts about how much it is holding the US economy back. Experts at the Bank of America remain in the same position, believing that the first rate cut will not occur until December. To cut the rate in September, it is necessary that inflation slows further or labor market data weaken even more. Still, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.32% on Wednesday, the lowest level since early April, as softer inflation data gives the Fed more flexibility to cut rates this year.




The dollar index has weakened over the past few days. The DXY is now near the price lows of April (103.95), which is the nearest support level. Perhaps within this range, the dollar's weakening will temporarily slow down. At least that is the picture we see now. When will the Fed cut rates? The main question is when the Fed will lower interest rates. This is of interest to analysts and financial market observers. According to analysis and forecasts, the likely month to start cutting rates is still September, as key elements of US inflation have started to show declines. DNB Markets writes that they believed that current data would not change the likelihood of a rate cut in the autumn, provided inflation data remained moderate and labor market conditions continued to improve. Their forecasts indicate that the market expects the first rate cut in September. According to inflation data released on Wednesday, overnight index swaps, which reflect traders' expectations of future interest rates, show that the market now fully appreciates the likelihood of a rate cut in September. Two weeks ago, the first cut was not expected until December.

In 2024, expectations for a Fed rate cut have fallen significantly due to higher inflation in the first quarter of the year. Signals have emerged that some elements of the inflation basket will resist a change. This boosted US bond yields and the US dollar in currency markets. Such a situation could happen again. Until core inflation (excluding housing costs) and housing costs decline, the overall inflation rate will not be able to hold steady at the Fed's 2.0% target. Housing costs, which account for about 40% of the overall consumer price index, have risen as a result of steady increases in home prices and rents in recent years. However, PNC Bank says the April 2024 consumer price report may bring some relief to Fed policymakers, as the most stable housing and core services segments of the CPI showed the first signs of softening in a long time. The core CPI declined to 0.2% month-over-month, and house price growth was just +0.2% month-over-month, the lowest since January 2021 (+0.6%). PNC's forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, in September and December, now seems more reasonable than earlier in 2024. Other analysts are expressing a similar view. Berenberg believes the current inflation data makes it slightly more likely that the Fed will start cutting rates sooner. "We continue to expect one 25-bp rate cut in December and three further such moves next year to bring the Fed funds target rate to 4.25–4.50%," Berenberg wrote. Economists at Wells Fargo and Pantheon Macroeconomics also share this view. It takes some favorable inflation indicators for the Fed to feel confident about a rate cut. The first rate cut is possible at the FOMC meeting in September.




News are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3KbWoHz

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Wall Street Week: Key Events and Forecasts for the Days Ahead

At the end of the day on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.34%, reaching a new record level, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.12%. The NASDAQ Composite Index, on the contrary, decreased by 0.07%. Among the stocks included in the Dow Jones index, Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) stood out with a gain of 5.65 points (1.61%) to 356.37. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) shares rose 2.38 points (1.18%) to end at 204.85. Also worth noting is Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), whose shares rose 2.03 points (1.11%) to close the day at 184.99. On the other hand, Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN) shares were down 2.25 points (0.71%) to end the day at 312.47. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) rose 0.20 points (0.62%) to close at 31.83, while Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) fell 0.20 points (0.50%). ), ending the session at 40.05. Among the growth leaders among the components of the S&P 500 index are shares of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO), which rose by 4.82%, reaching 166.14, shares of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX), which increased by 4 .25% to 54.25, and Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB), up 3.60% to 274.43. Meanwhile, Paramount Global Class B (NASDAQ:PARA) shares fell 4.91% to close at 12.02. Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) fell 3.29% to end the day at 117.31, while Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX) fell 3.27% to finish at 912.07. In Friday trading on the NASDAQ Composite stock exchange, shares of Fangdd Network Group Ltd (NASDAQ:DUO) showed significant growth, soaring by 309.76%, reaching a price of 1.68. Also, FLJ Group Ltd (NASDAQ:FLJ) rose 223.59% to finish the day at 1.55, and Jeffs Brands Ltd Unit (NASDAQ:JFBR) rose 109.03% to finish the day at 0. .65. At the same time, Blue Star Foods Corp (NASDAQ:BSFC) saw a significant decline of 45.19% to close at 0.08. SINTX Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SINT) shares fell 39.29% to close at 0.09. Heart Test Laboratories Inc Unit (NASDAQ:HSCS) fell 38.37% to close at 6.97. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of stocks whose prices increased (1,570) outnumbered the number of stocks that closed lower (1,256), while 85 stocks remained unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, the situation was less favorable: here shares of 1,790 companies lost value, 1,570 showed growth, and 125 remained at the same level. Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX) shares hit a new high, rising 4.25% or 2.21 points to finish the day at 54.25. Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB) also set a record, rising 3.60% or 9.55 points to close at 274.43. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) shares hit a high, rising 1.18% or 2.38 points to finish at 204.85. While Heart Test Laboratories Inc Unit (NASDAQ:HSCS) shares fell to a record low, losing 38.37% or 4.34 points to end the day at 6.97. The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market expectations based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.46% to a three-year low of 11.99. Gold futures for June delivery rose 1.46%, or 34.85, to $2.00 a troy ounce. WTI crude oil futures prices for June rose 0.95%, or 0.75, to close at $79.98 a barrel. Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 0.80%, or 0.67, to $83.94 a barrel. On the Forex market, EUR/USD remained virtually unchanged, rising just 0.05% to hit 1.09, while USD/JPY rose 0.20% to hit 155.68. The U.S. dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of foreign currencies, advanced slightly by 0.02% to close at 104.37. Historical data indicates that the current recovery in the US stock market, which led to record highs this week, may continue into the future. A slowdown in economic growth eased inflation concerns in May, spurring the three major US stock market indexes to hit all-time highs. The S&P 500, which lost more than 4% in April, is now up 11% year-to-date. Market analysts who study historical data note that stocks tend to rise faster after corrections of comparable magnitude, and often continue to rise even after recovering lost ground. Following this pattern, the current recovery could herald further gains in stock prices. After past 5% declines in the S&P 500, the subsequent average gain has been 17.4%, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. At the close of trading on Friday, the index was already up nearly 7% from its April lows. Investors are also expressing increased optimism about the economy's prospects for a so-called "soft landing" as well as forecasts for strong corporate profits, which could fuel further gains in stock prices. Market activity will be tested on Wednesday when Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares have jumped on a wave of interest in artificial intelligence, reports its quarterly financial results. Investors will also focus on durable goods data and consumer sentiment next week, expecting to see further evidence of slowing economic growth that could support the case for interest rate cuts this year.

News are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3V8BBKr

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Nasdaq records highs and S&P rises: All eyes on Nvidia



The Nasdaq hit record highs on Monday, while the S&P 500 posted modest gains as technology stocks advanced, ahead of Nvidia's results. The market also assessed the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Among the S&P's major sectors, technology .SPLRCT led the pack, rising 1.32%, led by gains from chipmakers including Nvidia, which rose 2.49% ahead of its quarterly earnings report. Investors are looking at Nvidia's earnings to see whether the artificial intelligence leader will maintain its rapid growth and advantage over rivals. Several brokerages increased their targets for Nvidia, and Micron Technology (MU.O) shares rose 2.96% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to "equal weight" from "underweight." The PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX) rose 2.15%. Stephen Massocca, a senior vice president at San Francisco-based Wedbush Securities, said: "If Nvidia's results exceed expectations, it could cause a bit of a stir. However, given the high cost, significant growth is unlikely." "A Fed rate cut could spark a rally, but current data doesn't yet support that scenario." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 196.82 points, or 0.49%, to 39,806.77. While the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) rose 4.86 points, or 0.09%, to 5,308.13, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) rose 108.91 points, or 0.65%. , closing at 16,794.87. The Dow's decline came as JPMorgan (JPM.N) shares fell 4.5% after CEO Jamie Dimon expressed "cautious pessimism" and noted that the company has no plans to buy back shares at current prices. A strong earnings season and signs of slowing inflation have reignited expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, pushing major indexes to record levels. Let's remember that last week the Dow Jones index (.DJI) exceeded 40,000 points for the first time. Fed officials' comments on Monday had little impact on interest rate forecasts, despite their insistence that inflation pressures were easing and emphasizing the importance of a cautious approach.

News are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3ysqrs6

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: In the thick of things: inflation in the West and financial news from the East



Experts are looking forward to the release of the US personal consumption price (PCE) index this Friday, which is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve System (Fed). The data is expected to provide insight into future interest rate movements for the remainder of the year. Markets have already adjusted to the possibility of a rate hike, based on recently released Fed meeting minutes and muted comments from officials expressing doubts about a sustained decline in inflation. Earlier this month, separate reports showed moderate growth in consumer prices, which was below expectations. This has raised hopes of a possible rate cut this year after months of higher inflation. Minutes of the Fed's latest meetings confirmed that regulators expect price pressures to ease, although they cautioned that it will be necessary to wait several months before they can be sure that the 2% inflation target has been achieved before undertaking new economic initiatives. This week, market participants will expect a series of speeches from a number of key figures from the Federal Reserve, including Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester from the Cleveland Fed, Lisa Cook, John Williams from the New York Fed and Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed. These events will provide investors with additional guidance regarding the current economic climate. Also included in the economic agenda are updated estimates of first-quarter U.S. economic growth due Thursday, as well as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide additional information about the state of the economy, which could influence future monetary policy decisions. At the upcoming June meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to take steps to cut interest rates from the current record level of 4%. However, the pace of further rate cuts remains an open question, especially in the context of upcoming eurozone inflation data on Friday, which could indicate continued price pressures. Eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% per annum in May from 2.4% in April, while core inflation will remain at 2.7%. This should not prevent the ECB from cutting rates in June, although some officials have spoken out against further easing of monetary policy. Next week will also see the release of important economic data for the eurozone, including the Ifo business climate index in Germany on Monday and the ECB's survey of inflation expectations on Tuesday. Market attention is focused on the upcoming inflation data in Tokyo, which will be published this Friday. Analysts and investors are analyzing this data in an attempt to predict possible changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, especially in the context of the expected next interest rate hike. This publication will take place two weeks before the Bank of Japan meeting, at which, as experts suggest, a second rate hike may occur after a significant decision in March. The country is under growing pressure on the central bank to raise rates as the yen continues to weaken, raising the cost of imported goods and weighing on consumer demand. Also this Friday, the Japanese Ministry of Finance will present data on the latest interventions in the foreign exchange market and changes in the bond purchase schedule of the Bank of Japan. Investors will be closely watching for a possible reduction in purchases by the central bank. Early in the week on Monday, China will release industrial profit data for the past year, allowing analysts and investors to assess whether April's performance recovered from a big drop in March. The drop weighed on the country's economic growth in the first quarter, which slowed to 4.3%. The official PMIs for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors will be released on Friday. Economists forecast that the manufacturing PMI should exceed the threshold of 50 for the third time in a row in May, indicating growth in the sector. Beijing has set an ambitious target for economic growth of around 5% this year, but many experts say that target is difficult to achieve. Continued difficulties in the real estate sector and weak consumer demand continue to be major headwinds for the world's second-largest economy. Oil prices rose 1% on Friday, but ended the week in the red on expectations that strong economic growth in the US could keep interest rates high for an extended period, which in turn would weigh on fuel demand. Brent prices fell 2.1% during the week, marking the largest number of consecutive declines since early January. The US WTI fell 2.8% for the week. High interest rates lead to rising borrowing costs, which could limit economic activity and reduce demand for oil. However, overall oil demand remains high, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. They estimate that global consumption of liquid petroleum products will increase by about 1.5 million barrels per day this year.

News are provided by InstaForex

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3VitXOP

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USA and Europe: market trends during the holidays



At the close of the trading day on Monday, the US stock market showed positive dynamics, spurred by strong growth in the technology sector, utilities and commodities segment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly, adding 0.01%. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 rose 0.70%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite posted a 1.10% gain, according to the New York Stock Exchange. Among the top gainers on the Dow Jones is Intel Corporation, whose shares jumped 0.64 points or 2.13% to close at 30.72. It is also worth noting the success of JPMorgan Chase & Co, whose shares added 3.79 points or 1.92%, reaching 200.71. Apple Inc wasn't far behind, rising 3.10 points or 1.66% to end the day at 189.98. On the other hand, not all companies showed growth. Shares of Salesforce Inc fell 6.28 points, or 2.25%, to close the day at 272.29. Johnson & Johnson shares, on the other hand, rose 2.73 points or 1.82%, ending trading at 146.97. Meanwhile, Unitedhealth Group shares fell 8.66 points, or 1.68%, to end the session at 508.17. At the close of trading on Monday, Deckers Outdoor Corporation stood out among the fastest-growing stocks in the S&P 500 index, rising 14.18% to hit 1.00. First Solar Inc shares also gained significantly in price, increasing by 10.78% to close at 276.74. Shares of Ross Stores Inc also posted notable gains, rising 7.79% to finish the day at 142.13. Among the decliners, Intuit Inc. was the biggest decliner, losing 8.35% to close at 606.99. Dayforce Inc shares fell 7.60% to finish at 56.18. Elevance Health Inc also fell, losing 4.18% to end the session at 521.22. In the context of the NASDAQ Composite Index, shares of Innovative Eyewear Inc stood out, jumping 428.49% to close at 0.98. Akanda Corp shares also showed noticeable growth, increasing by 71.97% and closing at 4.11. Onemednet Corp shares also posted gains, rising 56.46% to end the day at 2.30. Verastem Inc shares were the biggest loser, losing 66.17% to end the session at 4.12. Shares of Sensei Biotherapeutics Inc also showed a significant decline, falling by 45.89% to 0.79. Shares of Genelux Corp fell 43.04% to close the day at 2.62. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of stocks that closed lower exceeded the number of stocks that closed higher. A similar trend was observed in the NASDAQ stock market, where the number of declining stocks exceeded the number of advancing stocks. Deckers Outdoor Corporation shares hit an all-time high, rising 14.18% or 128.25 points to finish at 1.00. First Solar Inc also hit a new high, rising 10.78% or 26.93 points to finish the day at 276.74. Dayforce Inc shares hit a 52-week low, losing 7.60% or 4.62 points to end the session at 56.18. Verastem Inc shares fell to a 52-week low, down 66.17% or 8.06 points to close at 4.12. Shares of Genelux Corp set an all-time low, losing 43.04% or 1.98 points to end the day at 2.62. The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures fluctuations in the S&P 500 options market, increased 3.60% to 12.36. In the commodities segment, gold futures for June delivery rose 0.77%, or $18, to settle at $2.00 a troy ounce. WTI crude oil futures for July delivery rose 1.07%, or $0.83, to $78.55 a barrel. And Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 1.20%, or $0.98, to $82.82 a barrel. On the Forex currency market, the EUR/USD pair remained virtually unchanged, showing an increase of 0.13% to the level of 1.09. While USD/JPY fell marginally by 0.07% to close at 156.88. Dollar index futures fell 0.12% to 104.51. European equity markets ended the day moderately higher on Monday, with government bond yields falling amid signals of a possible interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), despite trading being muted due to the closure of some of the world's leading markets. The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended 0.3% higher, nearing a record high set earlier this month. Senior ECB officials expressed the view that the bank has room to cut rates in light of slowing inflation, but stressed the need for a cautious approach to easing monetary policy despite the apparent direction of the policy. "There is uncertainty about future economic data, but current conditions suggest that inflationary tensions are easing in both the eurozone and the US," Rainer Singer of the Erste Group said in his analysis. "The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates as early as June, unlike the Federal Reserve, which is not yet ready to do so." Government bond yields in the region showed a decline, with rates on the 10-year benchmark bond at 2.547%. This week the focus will be on new eurozone consumer price data for May, due out on Friday. Also expected this week is the publication of inflation data from Germany, Spain and France. According to information from LSEG, the European Central Bank is likely to begin the process of cutting interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, with a probability of more than 90%. US inflation data expected on Friday will provide traders with a window into the timing and scope of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts for the year. Activity in the markets was subdued due to the lack of participants from the US and UK, where markets were closed due to holidays. Most key sectors in the STOXX 600 ended the day higher, with utilities rising 1.1% and autos up about 1%. The data shows that the German business sentiment index remained unchanged in May, missing expectations for improvement. Germany's main stock index .GDAXI closed 0.4% higher. In the individual portfolio, Alstom (ALSO.PA) shares rose 5.6% after the French train maker announced terms for an upcoming 1 billion euro ($1.08 billion) rights issue as part of its strategy to improve its financial position. companies. Meanwhile, salmon producer P/F Bakkafrost (BAKKA.OL) lost 2.5% following confirmation of the ISA virus in two pens on its A-19 Vagur farm.

News are provided by InstaForex

Read more: ifxpr.com/3KrAZu5