Technical Templates

[whipcrack]

I got next potential downside fireworks tagged inside this 150 pip s&r channel back from 1st & 2nd quarters of 2009.
It contained some pretty fiery bid & offer action judging by the rejection & subsequent aggressive bullish upkick (highlighted weekly bar).

Might be good for some short timeframe (range) each-way momentum plays on next re-visit!

Average days range for today takes price nicely inside that lower channel Dean!
Nice trade buddy

[Joe Whitehorse]

Keep an eye on any uptick push & close above 1.3690 on eurusd next week. That will put a holding wedge underneath this potential short-term double bottom @ 1.3450 for now.
Stops beyond 3700 should pitch it toward 3780 & 3850 if it catches a decent bid & CB’s don’t crap on the party by selling into early week strength.

Once all that M&A excitement & hung parliament chatter gathered pace, poor old Euro never really stood a chance Jimmy boy.
The good old BIS selling all the way thru the 3580's scuppered the chances of a relief push back up in european trade. They're back on the bid down here along with BoNY & BoA according to Hermans.
Stacks of short covering playing out after the fix (CB's & short-term specs) as well.

That double bottom holds for now, we'll see how heavy the offers are as it clicks into the 3550's if the BIS & it's merry band of bandits can huff & puff it up there

[Joe Whitehorse]

I got next potential downside fireworks tagged inside this 150 pip s&r channel back from 1st & 2nd quarters of 2009.
It contained some pretty fiery bid & offer action judging by the rejection & subsequent aggressive bullish upkick (highlighted weekly bar).

Might be good for some short timeframe (range) each-way momentum plays on next re-visit!

Average days range for today takes price nicely inside that lower channel Dean!
Nice trade buddy

Got there in a bit of a hurry today fella's

2.5 times the average days mileage is a good a reason as any to book some tidy profit & maybe play the return (profit paring) train journey back up inside the lower channel line.

[jack mason]

Haven't traded much this week at all. Most of the major/popular pairs have certainly struggled for direction.

I got chopped around a bit on Tuesday trying to position myself into Cable & Eur/Yen follow-on short entries.
Luckily, I stepped aside & decided to watch it play out Wednesday. I set my upper & lower range barriers in place & neither edge were threatened with any real conviction so I sat the remainder of the week out.

Hope you guys managed to stay out of too much trouble!

[spotfx]

I set my upper & lower range barriers in place & neither edge were threatened with any real conviction so I sat the remainder of the week out.

Hope you guys managed to stay out of too much trouble!

That's sometimes the best option Jack. The market isn't always so obliging in offering forth opportunities that suit our strategies or systems, & if that's the case we have to wait patiently until conditions are ripe for the plucking so to speak!

Discipline is paramount in this business. Without that, & a recognition of when your strategy is best suited to the conditions, all that will happen is a slow-bleed of the account.

[jack mason]

The market isn't always so obliging in offering forth opportunities that suit our strategies or systems, & if that's the case we have to wait patiently until conditions are ripe for the plucking so to speak!

Discipline is paramount in this business. Without that, & a recognition of when your strategy is best suited to the conditions, all that will happen is a slow-bleed of the account.

Totally agree with those comments spotfx.
I've had one or two of those harsh lessons drilled home since I started out on this journey a short while back I can tell you

Do any of you more experienced guys have any views or comments to share on the use of Fibonacci levels or Pivots as a useful addition to ones FX technical analysis collection?
You see plenty of stuff related to them in various articles & other forum threads, but there’s a lot of conflicting comment & opinions on how best to plot & use them.

I know you don’t show them on any of your charts Joe, & I haven’t seen any of Jimmy’s (or the other regulars on the thread) stuff here or elsewhere mentioning them either.

Just curious if any of you guys have ever used or considered using them?

[JimmyMac]

Do any of you more experienced guys have any views or comments to share on the use of Fibonacci levels or Pivots as a useful addition to ones FX technical analysis collection?

Not me Jack. I don’t find either of them add any real value to my technical structuring.

You can barely find more than a small handful of traders at any one time that agree on the correct (time) calculation for pivots, let alone plot & trade off them to any degree of consistency

Trouble is on the cash market, there are that many different timezone brokers all showing + or – GMT bar closes, you got a job even agreeing on a concrete high/low/close base from which to run the pivot numbers from.

The recognized Interbank balancing up & close of the FX day is 17.00 est.

Most of the industry guys we speak to that actually refer to them, (& it aint many to be honest) use that time clock as the configuration for them.

Same story with Fibs. Those industry fella’s that observe them tend to work off the larger chart references such as the big 4 hour swings, Daily & Weekly zones.

You see & read most of the kids on the forums popping them onto 15 & 30 minute charts & betting every 20 pip bounce off them
Waste of goddamn time.

[Joe Whitehorse]

I wouldn’t disagree with anything Jim has said to be honest.

Prior day high & low
Prior week high & low
Major quarterly extreme high & low levels + current directional flows are all big & bold on the regular players radar screens.

Prices get kicked to & from those levels most every week & they’ll react often enough to get you in & out again with minimal fuss & decent risk.
But then it’s all been well covered on this thread Jack.

Simply combine your timeframes of choice, get on the correct side of the flows & either buy dips or sell rallies via the smaller timeframe of choice in tandem with your lead chart reference for intraday plays.....mix & trigger off the appropriate timeframes of choice if you fancy playing slightly longer swing bets.

It's up to you what you study & use, but I wouldn't waste too much of your time on it if I were you!

[jjay]

Do any of you more experienced guys have any views or comments to share on the use of Fibonacci levels or Pivots as a useful addition to ones FX technical analysis collection?

For what it's worth Jack I’ve had pivots up on my charts before now.
Sometimes price would honor the 1, 2 or 3 resistance & support lines & sometimes it would just plough straight through them without a second glance.

I didn’t find them any better or any worse than the zones I could see with my own 2 eyes.
I experienced just as much success without them as I did with them.
As far as I’m concerned it’s just more unnecessary clutter on the screen.

Jimmy’s correct too regards the different time periods used to calculate the levels.

I’ve used midnight London, midnight New York, 5pm New York & they’ll all match up & score a direct hit at some point or other if you watch them often enough.

In my opinion, they’re far too flaky & inconsistent. You can get just as good a read on the price action from the stuff detailed on here.

Best thing is to plot them yourself Jack to see just how unreliable they are.
Use the different clock times & compare the results.
I’ll lay good odds they’ll all even out over time.

Can’t comment on the Fib deal. I’ve never plotted them, nor do I intend to do so.

[whipcrack]

Hey Jack,
Never bothered with pivots on fx for the reasons already given re; the varied & unstructured clock time calcs, but have used them on futures & stocks.

I’ve also used Fibonacci retracement levels a time or two.
I’ll occasionally stick them up on an obvious large swing high-low to see if the percentages match up with one of my freehand support & resistance levels to maybe add a little substance to the zone.

The technical dept’s of Bank & Hedge Funds always refer to any key Fib levels in their regular briefing notes to clients via the morning (open) & late afternoon (close) wrap up. But as Jimmy mentioned, they’re taken from the big chart timeframes.

Good to see you're adopting some disciplined control over your activity. It's pretty windy out there lately across one or two of the pairs & they'll be a few folks getting blown around in some of this chop.