Technical Templates

[zilly]

Hi carll,
I think I am beginning to see the picture.
I feel the theory you explains here is not only suitable for M5 traders like me, it can also be implement in those hourly or even larger timeframe traders.

The objective of the exercise is to trade in sync with the current dominant flow of the market, which is especially important when you're executing intraday bets.

It's an absolutely critical minimum requirement.
"Swimming with the tide uses less energy & allows you to cover far more ground than constantly attempting to struggle against the elements"

Hi Ray,
The post that I've included underneath your comments really hits the nail firmly on the head.
If you can make that your default setting every time you open your charts & not deviate from it you'll save yourself a lot of pain & anguish in the future.

A lot of newer traders fresh into this business ignore the very simple basics & go in search of the more complex & highly inefficient strategies & systems. They make life extremely difficult for themselves & cause all sorts of unecessary financial & psychological pain.

This thread isn't very long but it's packed with logical advice & examples of how to approach this market.
Directional trading, using top down timeframe combinations is one of the most stress free methods of getting involved with markets.

[zilly]

One or two of these high ranking pairs look as though they're getting a little extended at current levels. Worth a keen eye to prepare for a possible pullback or two.



If they look like they might fall prey to some profit taking or positional readjustment, the hourlies will offer up the first technical signs of possible support on re-tests of previous breakout & momentum peak thrusts.
I've included the usd/chf as it's considered the major of the Swiss based instruments, but personally I'd look to the higher daily range pairs of eur/chf & gbp/chf as proxy vehicles for any anticipated Swiss deflation from current strength levels.

[spotfx]

I've included the usd/chf as it's considered the major of the Swiss based instruments, but personally I'd look to the higher daily range pairs of eur/chf & gbp/chf as proxy vehicles for any anticipated Swiss deflation from current strength levels.

They’re pumping the safe haven Swiss for all it's worth during this curren risk aversion phase zilly. That's definitely been the horse to be on lately & it obliged nicely into your pullback zone for yet another low risk short into Monday's trade.

I agree, the higher value bang for your buck is betting eur & gbp v/s chf. It's these types of technical conditions (with no obvious lower support levels from which to run the rule over) that bring the value of using the average daily range to the fore when betting these pairs.
Although it's extended those numbers this week, it can be matched up with the lower timeframe swing points to trail profit stops & assist with trade management.

Nice to have another view on the thread, welcome aboard

[zilly]

They’re pumping the safe haven Swiss for all it's worth during this current risk aversion phase zilly. That's definitely been the horse to be on lately & it obliged nicely into your pullback zone for yet another low risk short into Monday's trade.

Hello spotfx, thanks for the welcome it's nice to be here.
Oh yeah the Swissy has it's running shoes well & truly laced doesn't it. SNB are very wary of pumping more good money after bad attempting to stem the tide, so unless they begin giving sufficient forewarning of a heavy intervention step it will continue to attract money.

This latest leg down smells very much like algo programme trades kicking in. The speculative interest will obviously jump in via pullbacks or breaks through previous lows, but machine bets will drive this until the Swiss long orders begin phasing out.

As you say in your post, the better focus for identifying mixed orders will be via the smaller timeframes. They'll provide the clearer view down at these all time lows.

[whipcrack]

SNB are very wary of pumping more good money after bad attempting to stem the tide, so unless they begin giving sufficient forewarning of a heavy intervention step it will continue to attract money.

This latest leg down smells very much like algo programme trades kicking in.

Quite apt this morning given your comments of yesterday zilly
Doesn't appear as though they've actually intervened yet, but the mere threat & the rhetoric this morning across the wires has had the immediate effect they're undoubtedly seeking.

See how strong those mixed order levels are now on the way back up.

http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_ ... 803.en.pdf

[goldtop]

the better focus for identifying mixed orders will be via the smaller timeframes. They'll provide the clearer view down at these all time lows.

See how strong those mixed order levels are now on the way back up.

Looks like the offers overwhelmed the (buy) stops above your 2nd highlighted 1.1100 zone zilly.

SNB are going to going to have to put their money where there mouths are pretty soon otherwise these short squeezes are simply going to shorted into again as per today's price action.
Rumor of heavy Swiss buying into the London fix began circulating this morning, so I guess we'll see how it all settles as London closes off for the day.

Sell the rallies till we see the color of the SNB money!

[shona123]

Rumor of heavy Swiss buying into the London fix began circulating this morning, so I guess we'll see how it all settles as London closes off for the day.

Turned out it was substantially more than just a rumor then Dean.
Nice obliging price action (bullish dojis) on the 15m chart down at the London fix to signal a temporary halt to the Swiss strength.

[goldtop]

but can they blow the house down!

Cable jogging effortlessly up to this multi month resistance zone again this week. Meeting offers so far, but all eyes will be on the depth of the pullback from this area.


Should it catch a hold of those buy stops building beyond 6450-75 next level resistance at 6550 will arrive in the blink of an eye ahead of the years highs up at 6750.

[zilly]

but can they blow the house down!

Cable jogging effortlessly up to this multi month resistance zone again this week. Meeting offers so far, but all eyes will be on the depth of the pullback from this area.

the 9-0 rates vote & soggy jobs data certainly hasn't dented it's enthusiasm so far that's for sure.
It's going to have to make a run for it on it's own though coz eur/gbp is still stuck in the mud & not going anywhere fast

I like the Aussie this week to be honest. Some M&A activity driving it overnight with Millers brewers back in sniffing around Fosters again. It could do with a push or two trying to climb the hill beyond yesterdays highs, but it's still putting in a decent days work.

Gooo Ozzzzziee

[jack mason]

but can they blow the house down!
Should it catch a hold of those buy stops building beyond 6450-75 next level resistance at 6550 will arrive in the blink of an eye ahead of the years highs up at 6750.

ha ha ha, well they took a big, deep breath & all blew together Dean
Very nice momentum shift up through that resistance with an obliging pullback to boot
Blinked twice & you missed it.

SNB are going to going to have to put their money where there mouths are pretty soon otherwise these short squeezes are simply going to shorted into again.
Sell the rallies till we see the color of the SNB money!

Amazing what a big thick stick will do when a Central Bank is prepared to wave it huh!
From just shy of 0.7000 on usd/chf to knocking on the door of 0.8000 in a weeks worth of trading. About time they got a little payback for all that money they've wasted this year attempting to stem the tide.