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[IFX Gertrude]

Usd/idr Firm Above 12300



Protests for min wage increase ongoing in Jakarta, peaceful so far Risk fall, global stocks dump, strong corporate year-end USD demand pressure IDR USD/IDR to move back above 12350, resistance zone between 12380-12400 NDFs traded 12420-12445 overnight, closed at 12435-12450 in NY No change in BI policy rates expected, currently at 7.75%

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[IFX Gertrude]

Abe Looks Set to Reaffirm His Authority



Japan's lower house election takes place on 14 December, just two years after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012. Standard Chartered Research predicts: We expect the ruling coalition to hold its super-majority in the lower house election Budget compilation and reforms will be the next focus for the new government If the ruling party loses the election, there will be considerable uncertainty ahead

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Services Sector Slows In November



The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Business NZ revealed on Monday with a PMI of 54.8. That's down from 57.0 in October, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. By region, the index for the Northern region came in at 55.5, while the Central region was at 57.1, Canterbury was at 56.8 and Otago came in at 65.3.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Aud/usd Little changed After Rba Minutes Similar to Statement



RBA acknowledged market expectations of easing in 2015 But gave no indication they agree with those expectations View that lower AUD needed to balance economy same as statement Market will look ahead to HSBC Flash China PMI at 01:45 GMT

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Has Y891.859B Trade Deficit



Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 891.859 billion yen in November, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday - remaining in the red for the 29th consecutive month. The headline figure beat forecasts for a shortfall of 992.0 billion following the downwardly revised 736.9 billion yen deficit in October (originally 709.995 billion yen). Exports were up 4.9 percent to 6.188 trillion yen - well shy of forecasts for a gain of 7.0 percent and slowing from 9.6 percent in the previous month. Exports to all of Asia were up 5.8 percent on year, while exports to China added an annual 0.9 percent. Exports to the United States gained 6.8 percent on year, while exports to the European Union fell an annual 1.3 percent. Imports dipped 1.7 percent on year to 7.080 trillion yen versus forecasts for an increase of 1.7 percent following the upwardly revised 3.1 percent gain a month earlier (originally 2.7 percent). Imports from all of Asia climbed 3.4 percent on year, while imports from China alone advanced an annual 3.9 percent. Imports from the United States tumbled 3.3 percent, while imports from the European Union collected 2.4 percent. The adjusted merchandise trade balance was a deficit of 925.0 billion yen, which beat forecasts for a shortfall of 982.8 billion yen following the revised 985.1 billion yen deficit in October (originally -977.5 billion yen).

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[IFX Gertrude]

Boj Unlikely to Move at Its Last Policy Meeting of 2014



The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its final monetary policy meeting of 2014 on 18-19 December. Standard Chartered Research notes it does not expect any change in their policy in near term: We expect no policy change, with the BoJ likely to keep its annual asset purchase target at JPY 80tn. The board is also likely to keep its economic assessment unchanged, saying that the economy continues to recover moderately. The BoJ unexpectedly expanded its monetary easing programme on 31 October in order to pre-empt the return of a deflationary mindset. However, the decision was made by a 5-4 vote. While Governor Kuroda and his two deputies have firmly maintained that the 2% inflation target can be achieved "around" FY15 (year starting in April 2015), some board members have expressed different views.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Flows Suggest Short-Term Jpy-Krw Rebound



Standard Chartered TF analysis shows bullish flow signal for MYR and KRW suggesting JPY-KRW rebound: G10: Corporates turned small sellers of USD vs. EUR in November; custodians reduced USD-JPY buying Asia: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients reduced shorts in USD-KRW and USD-TWD Africa: SCTF Corporate Position Index shows that our clients increased USD-NGN longs

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[IFX Gertrude]

Usd/idr Likely Rangebound Amid 12430-480



Lower NDFs to weigh on pair but bullish majors pairs to underpin Natural demand for USD onshore, corp int add to support too NDFs traded 12525-12540 range overnight, closed 12520-550 in NY

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[IFX Gertrude]

Usd/idr to Trade Firmer Bias Above 12450 on renewed Ndfs Buying



Broad USD gains overnight, renewed fall in commodities underpin Unfinished yearend demand from corps to add to support 1 month traded 12530-12560 range overnight, closed 12550-12570 in NY

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Area: Further Evidence of Low Inflation



In terms of data, this week will provide further evidence of our lowflation scenario, notes Societe Generale Research: With lower fuel prices, HICP inflation is set to print three ticks lower at just 0.0% yoy. Risks are tilted to the downside and the HICP is set to slide into negative territory in the coming months. Meanwhile, core inflation should marginally increase from 0.7% yoy to 0.8% yoy. Despite the positives arising from the lower euro and weaker oil prices, PMIs and the EC surveys should continue to point to low growth and inflation. December final euro-area PMIs are likely to be unchanged from the flash estimate in the services sector, with meaningful improvements expected both in Spain and Italy. Industrial production in November is set to continue to reflect a weak and uneven recovery across the region, with German output probably down by 0.4% momand French output probably rising by 0.7% mom.

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