LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (1.5853). Flat Kijun-sen line (1.5975) won’t let the pair higher.



GBP/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, however the red line is directed down wards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (1.6063). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level (1.5800).



Key levels
Support levels: 1.5853, 1.5800.
Resistance levels: 1.5905, 1.5975.

Trading tips
Despite deep correction on the four-hour chart, downward trend is still strong. Targets for the short positions are 1.5853 and 1.5800.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: downward movement is likely to continue

Current trend

The pair AUD/USD has opened upward this week, due to the poor data on the US labor market. Recall that in October the number of jobs outside agricultural sector has reduced to 214 thousand. However, the rise in the pair has been short-term. The price had reached the upper line of Bollinger bands at the level of 0.8683 and then corrected. Currently, the price has broken down the level of 0.8615 (middle line of Bollinger bands), which give chance for the further decline up to the level of 0.8540. At this level the pair can reverse and start upward movement.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators do not give clear signals. Bollinger bands are turning upwards; however the price chart has broken down the middle line, which indicates probability of the further decline. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines are moving sideways.
Support levels: 0.8540 and 0.8500.
Resistance levels: 0.8615, 0.8700 and 0.8755.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price and take profit at the level of 0.8540. Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.8540. Pending buy orders can be also placed at the level of 0.8615 with the target of 0.8700.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: recovery in the pair is not expected in the near future

Current trend

The pair EUR/USD has shifted to consolidation phase near important support level of 1.2360. The main macro-economic European statistics will be released later; nevertheless investors do not believe that European economy will start to grow rapidly. The only catalyst for the upward movement is the fact that Euro is significantly oversold.
Attention today shall be paid to the data on industrial output in Eurozone, the volume of which is expected to increase. In addition, the speech of Mr Kocherlakota, a member of the US Open Market Committee can have impact on the movement in the pair. Tomorrow, key indices of Germany and France will become known and monthly economic report of ECB will be published.

Support and resistance

Poor data on industrial output in Eurozone can drop the pair to the local lows and the key support level of 1.2360. If European statistics continues to be negative and demand for the Euro decreases, the pair can fall to the lows of July 2012 at the level of 1.2040. Euro needs strong drivers in order to regain.

Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2260, 1.2150 and 1.2040.
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2570, 1.2630, 1.2660, 1.2740 and 1.2770.

Trading tips

It makes sense to continue trading on the trend, placing pending sell orders from the levels of 1.2500 and 1.2570 and take profit at the level of 1.2360, and in the medium-term: at the level of 1.2040. In addition, it is advisable to open long positions from the strong support level and the local lows of the year 2012 with the short stop-loss.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday, due to lack of important economic news, volatility in the pair EUR/USD was low. At the moment the pair continues to consolidate, and is trading in the range of 1.2418-1.2495. The pair is under pressure from the US news. Yesterday the head of the Federal Bank of Philadelphia, Charles Plosser said that it is necessary to raise interest rates in the USA. He believes that the base interest rate does not correspond to the current level of unemployment and inflation.
Market participant are not active in anticipation of the data on consumer price index and preliminary GDP for Q3 in Eurozone, which will be released on Friday. This statistics can have strong impact on the monetary policy of ECB, as the Bank may expand stimulation of the European economy. The US retail sales statistics for October will be also released on Friday. It is expected that this index will grow, which can strengthen the USD.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2510 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%), 1.2560 (Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%), 1.2610 (Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%), 1.2700 (important psychological level).
Support levels: 1.24150 (lows of Wednesday), 1.2357 (lows of 7 November), 1.2300 (important psychological level).

Trading tips

On the daily chart MACD histogram is above the signal line and is moving to the zero line. Stochastic line %К is crossing the line %D from the bottom to the top, giving a buy signal. A pattern triangle has been formed on the chart. In case of breakout of its upper limit, buy positions can be opened with the first target of 1.2510 and the second target of 1.2560. In case of breakout of the bottom limit, sell positions can be placed from the level of 1.2415 with the targets of 1.2540 and 1.2300.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: weakening of the British economy continues to put pressure on the Pound

Current trend

This week the pair GBP/USD has reached new annual lows at the level of 1.5654. The British Pound is still under pressure from the inflation report of the Bank of England, which shows that in the next six months inflation rate can be less than 1%. The British regulator has also lowered the forecast of economic growth up to 2.9%, which boosted sales of the British currency.
Downward movement in the pair can continue today because of the macro-economic statistics. Preliminary GDP in Eurozone is likely to be negative. At the same time volume of retail sales in the USA can increase by 0.2%, which will support the USD.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is undergoing upward correction; however the rise will be short-term. In the near future downward movement will resume, reaching the levels of 1.5650, 1.5600 and probably 1.5555. Technical indicators confirm that the decline will continue. Bollinger bands are diverging, showing that downtrend is strong. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone and directed upwards.

Support levels: 1.5650, 1.5600 and 1.5555.
Resistance levels: 1.5715, 1.5790 and 1.5850.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions from the level of 1.5650 with the first target of 1.5600 and the next target of 1.5555.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
Last week the USD continued to strengthen due to positive US macro-economic statistics; however the pair EUR/USD was not able to consolidate below the level of 1.2400. The data on the US retail sales and consumer confidence index have exceeded the forecast; while the increasing number of applications for unemployment benefits has slightly spoiled statistics. As a result, the pair finished the last week reaching the level 1.2520.
At today’s opening session the pair at first continued to rise, but then fell to support level of 1.2490. In the afternoon, Mario Draghi, a chairman of the ECB, will give a speech, which can shed light on the future policy of the regulator. On Wednesday, final minutes of the US Fed meeting will become known. On Thursday, US consumer price index will be released.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that the pair has broken through above the level of 1.2500, which could have become a signal of trend reversal; however the price at once underwent downward correction. If the pair does not consolidate above the level of 23.6 Fibonacci, it will again test the bottom limit of the channel at the level of 1.2400.
Support levels: 1.2485, 1.2460, 1.2440, 1.2420 and 1.2395. The main target of the “bears” is to go below the level of 1.2485. Resistance levels:1.2500, 1.2525, 1.2550 and 12580.

Trading tips
It makes sense to open buy positions from the level of 1.2500 with the target of 1.2580. Sell positions can be opened below the level of 1.2485. it is also advisable to place limit buy orders at the level of 1.2395.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Since the breakdown of support level at 80.00 last week, (which was rather psychological than a technical level), the price chart has never risen above this mark. Oil prices have been declining since the summer, and it seems that this trend will remain unchanged. One of the main factors putting pressure on Brent is the increasing volume of oil production. Market participants assume that at the next meeting OPEC, which will be held on 27 November in Vienna, no proposals will be made to reduce oil production and decrease market supply. Amid these expectations Brent fell to the level of 76.76; however, later the price corrected up to the level of 78.00.

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart technical indicators show the lull in the market. Bollinger bands are converging, showing lack of activity in the market. MACD indicator does not give clear signals either. Histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing.

Resistance levels: 79.40, 80.40, 81.60 and 82.80.
Support levels: 77.90, 76.76, 77.00 and 76.00.

Trading tips

Brent has shifted to consolidation phase. Trading is carried out in the range of 77.90-79.40. The most feasible scenario is sideways movement of the price in the above range.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend
On Monday the pair USD/JPY traded in the range of 115.45-117.05. After the opening of the session the price fell; however after determining support level, the chart went up. Market is in anticipation of the interest rate decision at tomorrow’ meeting of the Bank of Japan. In case of the increase in the interest rate, Japanese currency will grow significantly.

Support and resistance
On the four-hour chart moving average lines with the periods of 10 and 20 are directed upwards, which indicates upward movement.
Resistance levels: local highs of 116.82 and 117.05. Consolidation of the price above 117.05 will enable the rise in price up to the levels of 118.00-118.50.
Support levels: 114.59 and 113.15 (lows of the previous week).

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions after consolidation of the price above the level of 116.82.

[img]http://www.liteforex.com/uploads/other/6a18da8ae681bb2b2577ca1830d031cd.jpeg">

Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: the pair is undergoing correctiont

Current trend

On Tuesday quotes of the pair sharply dropped reaching the level of 0.7852. Strengthening in the USD had been of the technical nature, although the USD was also supported by the rise in the producer price index for October. At the moment the primary target of the “bears” is 0.7840 (bottom line of Bollinger bands). The quotes are unlikely to go further down. Market participant will not take risk in advance of the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US FOMC meeting today. Details of the minutes can lead to the strong movement in the market.

Support and resistance

In our opinion the level of 0.7840 is the key one at the moment. Breakdown of this level will make it possible for the price to go down to the levels of 0.7810 и 0.7780. If the minutes of the US Fed meeting will be interpreted as negative in the market, the quotes can go back to the level of 0.7915 (middle line of Bollinger bands). Indicators do not give clear signals. Bollinger bands are horizontal. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines can cross and form a buy signal.

Support levels: 0.7840, 0.7810 and 0.7780.
Resistance levels: 0.7915, 0.7945 and 0.7975.

Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 0.7780 if the price consolidates below the level of 0.7840. However, if the price pushes off from the bottom line of Bollinger bands and reached the level of 0.7870, it will make sense to open long positions with the target of 0.7915.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review

Current trend
At yesterday’s trading session the price of GBP/USD has slightly rose. At the end of the trading day the British currency gained over 60 points against the USD. The pair GBP/USD was supported by the outcome of yesterday’s meeting of the Bank of England, where it was decided to leave interest rate at the previous level, due to low inflation rate, which showed growth of only 1.3% in October versus 2%, which is the target set by the Bank of England. The main positive detail in the outcome of the meeting was the fact that not all 9 regulators of the Bank of England unanimously approved the decision to keep interest rate at the existing level. Two regulators voted for the rise in the interest rate in November. A range of opinions among those, who voted in favor of maintaining existing level of interest rate, was also wide. Today, the price of GBP/USD has corrected after yesterday’s rise and is trading in the sideways range. Among interesting fundamental news will be UK retail sales data for October (12:30 GMT+2), and the US inflation data (16:30 GMT+3).

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.5630, 1.5590, 1.5540 and 1.5500.
Resistance levels: 1.5680, 1.5720, 1.5760, 1.5780 and 1.5810.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that market is relatively quiet. In anticipation of the macro-economic news the pair is traded in the sideways channel. Buy positions are advisable in case of consolidation of the price above the level of 1.5680. Next target of the “bulls” will be yesterday’s highs of 1.5720. Long-term target of the “bulls” is 1.5760. Trend reversal can take place in case of consolidation of the pair below the level of 1.5590. In this case the “bears” will try to drop the pair further down to the levels of 1.5540 and 1.5500.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited