LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair USD/JPY has grown amid the rise in the USD. Following the release of the US consumer price index, which has grown by 0.1%, exceeding the forecast, the USD started to regain lost positions. This week the pair USD/JPY has been trying to consolidate after the recent decline. The price has consolidated above the level of 107.00 after closing at the level of 107.13 at the end of the trading day yesterday. At today’s opening session the pair has maintained yesterday’s momentum, continuing to rise and trading at the level of 107.50.
Some US news is scheduled for the release today. If labor market data and business activity index in the manufacturing sector prove to be above expectations, it can become an additional driver for the rise in the USD against Japanese Yen.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 107.83 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 109.00 (important psychological level), 110.08 (lows of 1 October).
Support levels: 107.09 (lows of the Asian session), 106.55 (moving average with the period of 55 days), 105.60 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%).

Trading tips

If the price exceeds the level of 107.85 it will boost the rise up to the level of 109.00.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: sideways movement will continue

Current trend

This week the currency pair USD/CAD has traded in the range of 1.1300-1.1200. In the middle of the week, following the release of the US consumer price index, the price has tested the lower limit of the range, but failed to consolidate below this level. In the near future the price can continue to move in the same range, which can become narrower up to 1.1255-1.1200. It is likely that market participants will not take risk prior to the important decisions, which can be taken on the next meeting of the US Fed.
Today, the data on new houses sales in the USA for September will become known. According to the forecast this index is going to decline, which will put some pressure on the USD and push the pair to go down to the bottom limit of the channel.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show probability of the downward movement. Bollinger bands have started to turn downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are slowly increasing. Stochastic lines are also directed downwards.
Support levels: 1.1200 and 1.1160.
Resistance levels: 1.1255, 1.1300 and 1.1360.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions if the price pushes off from the level of 1.1200. The target for these positions will be at the level of 1.1255. if the price consolidates below the level of 1.1200 and reaches the level of 1.1190, it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 1.1160.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, indicating new wave of the upward movement. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud at 1.6087. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.6181.



GBP/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer below the cloud and can soon give a signal to buy. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest suport level (1.6063). Kijun-sen line is a resistance level (1.6144).



Key levels

Support levels: 1.6087, 1.6063.
Resistance levels: 1.6144, 1.6181.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we’ve got one of the signals to buy. However, to open long-term buy positions traders should wait for the similar signal on the higher timeframe (the cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines).

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
For over a week gold has been trading in the narrow range of 1234.00-1225.00, trying to go beyond these limits. Several attempts to exceed the upper limit and reach the local lows of 1255.00 were unsuccessful.
Today, market is in anticipation of the US Fed meeting. It is assumed that FOMC will announce the termination of the asset purchase program. It is unlikely that interest rates will be raised in the near future; however, if during the meeting, there will be some indications that changes in the interest rates can take place at the end of the next year, but not in the middle of the year, it will support gold.

Support and resistance
Technically, the pair has entered consolidation phase after the correction and is now at the Fibonacci level of 23.6%. The pair tries to break through this level and in case of successful attempt the pair can go up to the level of 1255.00, or probably higher up. Technical indicators do not give clear signals.
Resistance levels: 1234.00, 1241.00, 1250.00 and 1255.00. The latter one is the main target of the “bulls”.
Support levels: 1225.00, 1216.00, 1204.00, 1191.00 and 1182.00.

Trading tips
It makes sense to place buy orders after consolidation of the price above the level of 1234.00 with the target of 1255.00. Limit sell orders can be placed at the same level. Sell positions are advisable below the level of 1225.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged above the cloud and are directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After a strong rise the pair is being corrected, however, the correction hasn’t reached the support level of merged lines (0.9524). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9606.



USD/CHF, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer above the cloud and can soon form an additional signal to buy. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9524. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.96675.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.9524.
Resistance levels: 0.9606, 0.9675.

Trading tips

On the both charts we can see a development of the upward movement, and strong support level of 0.9524 appeared on the both timeframes. Buy positions can be opened at current price with targets at 0.9606 and 0.9675.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Following yesterday’s rise in the pair GBP/USD up to the level of 1.6038, today the price fell to the previous support level of 1.5965. The GBP was supported by poor data on the US labor market, showing that the number of applications for the unemployment benefits has slightly increased. Market reacted to the news by buying the Pound; however at the end of the session the price of the pair has returned to the previous level.
Attention today shall be focused on the US data on Personal consumption expenditure index (14:30 GMT+3) and consumer confidence index (16:55 GMT+3). In general, the Pound remains under pressure from the strengthening USD.

Support and resistance

“Bearish” trend dominates in the pair GBP/USD and changes in this trend are not expected. Technical indicators show that downtrend will continue. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing. The most feasible scenario for the near future is the decline in the price of GBP/USD.
Support levels: 1.5965, 1.5940 and 1.5910.
Resistance levels: 1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6045 and 1.6080.

Trading tips

It is advisable to open sell positions after breakdown of the level of 1.5965 with the target of 1.5965. Next target of the “bulls” will be at 1.5910. Changes in the trend can happen in case of consolidation of the pair above the level of 1.6005.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Last week the American dollar had received support after the meeting of the US FOMC; at the same time, the pair EUR/USD has weakened and continues to remain under pressure. Follow-up statements of the US Fed were sharper than expected by investors. The latest statistics also showed that growth rate is at the same level.
This trading week the pair had started with the downward movement and quickly reached new local lows. The difference between growth rate of the American and European economies are increasing. The data, which will be released this week, will probably confirm this fact.
Today, business activity index in the US manufacturing sector for October will become known. On Wednesday, business activity index in the service sector for the same period. At the end of the week, the US labor market data will traditionally become known. Forecast for the labor market is below the previous level. However, if the new index reaches the level of the previous month, American currency will receive significant support.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2580 and 1.2600. The main target of the “bulls” is to consolidate above the level of 1.2500.
Support levels: 1.2485, 1.2460 and 1.2440.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions above the level of 1.2550 with the target of 1.2650. Sell positions can be opened at the level of 1.2440, do not forget to place protective orders.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: the Australian currency is still overvalued

Current trend

The currency pair AUD/USD continues to trade in the downward channel. Following the release of the negative US trade balance for September on Tuesday, the pair has reached the upper limit of the channel at the level of 0.8763. Today, the price has resumed downward movement, which was caused by the European macro-statistics. It became known that retail sales volume in European countries has reduced by 1.3%. On annual basis this index was also below the forecast, amounting 0.6%, which has led to the rise in the USD versus its main counterparts. Additional pressure on the AUD was caused by the statement of the head of the Australian Central banks, Mr. Glenn Stevens, who said that RBA is not planning to raise interest rate in the near future as long as the Australian dollar is overvalued.

Support and resistance

Currently the pair is testing the level of 0.8620, which coincides with the bottom limit of the downward channel. In addition, the price has broken down the lower line of Bollinger bands, showing probability of the correction to up the levels of 0.8650 and 0.8680. After the correction the price can continue to decline to 0.8620 and 0.8580.
Technical indicators show that the quotes will continue to decline. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes have started to rise. Stochastic lines are also directed downwards.
Support levels: 0.8620 and 0.8580.
Resistance levels: 0.8650, 0.8680 and 0.8725.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions at the current price with take profit at the level of 0.8680. At the same level it is also advisable to open pending sell orders with the target of 0.8620.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD

USD/CAD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After a strong rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line, which is now a resistance level (1.1418). The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be Kijun-sen line (1.1326).



USD/CAD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, forming an additional signal to buy. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 1.1294. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.1643.



Key levels

Support levels: 1.1294, 1.1326.
Resistance levels: .1418, 1.1643.

Trading tips

Despite deep correction on the four-hour chart, the pair is still trading within the upward trend. Buy positions can be opened above 1.1418 with targets at 1.1643.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: overall review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD has hit a new “record,” reaching the lows of August 2012 at the level of 1.2364. Sharp decline took place after press-conference of the chairman of ECB. Mr. Draghi, who has made it clear in his speech that in case of a need, a new stimulus package will be unanimously approved by all members of ECB.
Today, US NFPR index will become known. If Nonfarm Payrolls goes up above expected 229 thousand jobs, the pair EUR/USD will reach new lows.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2456 (Fibonacci retracement of 23.6%), 1.2519 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%) 1.2567 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%), 1.2610 (Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%).
Support levels: 1.2364 (yesterday’s lows), 1.2295 (lows of August 2012), 1.2200 (important psychological level).

Trading tips

It makes sense to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.2355. Short-term target will be at the level of 1.2300, and the main target at the level of 1.2200.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited