LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Last week the pair USD/JPY has reached the highs at 110.00. Market players have been expecting this level since last year. This week the pair started with the fall, but today it went up and is trading around 108.50. Prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe claimed that weak Yen can affect SME, while Head of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda doesn’t see any harm in low course of national currency. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga mentioned that weak Yen didn't raise the volume of export, but he also stated that his opinion couldn’t be seen as an estimation of Yen course.
This week investors are waiting for the fundamental data on Japanese Manufacturing sector as well as US FRS Meeting Minutes.

Support and resistance

Support levels are 108.35, 108.00 and 107.75. The pair will meet resistance at 108.55, 108.85, 109.20, 109.45. The main target for the Bulls is 110.00.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at 107.75, don't forget about stop-losses. Long-term buy orders can be opened at 109.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

At the last trading session the British currency rose significantly amid the news from the US Fed. Minutes of the meeting of FOMC have shown that interest rates will not be raised in the near future. The minutes also said that strengthening in the USD would have a negative impact on the US economy, especially on the export- oriented sector. Amid these facts the GBP has grown by more than 50 points.
Today, market participants are waiting for the data from the Bank of England on interest rates and on volume of the bond repurchase (14:00 GMT+3).

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that uptrend will continue. Bollinger bands are directed upwards; MACD histogram has moved to the positive zone, indicating the increase of the buying activity.
Resistance levels: 1.6217, 1.6280 and 1.6320.
Support levels: 1.6150, 1.6100 and 1.6040.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open buy positions after breakdown of the level of 1.6217, from which the “bulls” will try to reach next resistance level of 1.6280. In case of downtrend it makes sense to open buy position below the level of 1.6100 with the nearest target of 1.6040.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: upward correction was short

Current trend
This week, trading in NZD/USD was mixed and the pair was strongly affected by the US fundamental statistics. On Thursday the price had reached two-week highs at the level of 0.7975 after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting, which showed concerns of the American regulator about the strong dollar. The regulator has postponed tightening of the monetary policy once again, which was unexpected for the market participants. However, soon after that the pair lost positions after the release of the American labor market information. According to weekly report of the US Ministry of Labour, number of the primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits fell again, showing positive dynamics. Note also that New Zealand currency continues to be under pressure from the low prices for the dairy products. According to the auction “Global dairy trade,” the price of milk fell by 7.3% over the last two weeks.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that the price has broken the middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator (0.7860) and had potential to decline up to the levels of 0.7790 and 0.7740. MACD indicator also confirms possibility of the decline in price, as its histogram is ready to move to the negative zone and form a sell signal. Stochastic lines are horizontal. They do not give any clear signals.
Support levels: 0.7790 and 0.7740.
Resistance levels: 0.7860, 0.7900 and 0.7975.

Trading tips
In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price level. Long positions with the target of 1.7975 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 1.7890.



Dmitry Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
With the opening of today’s trading session, the pair EUR/USD has slightly grown after the decline last Friday; however, in general, European currency continues to weaken amid overall strengthening in the USD. In addition, European macro-economic statistics show negative performance, indicating slowdown in economic growth. It is likely that in the near future European currency will not have strong drivers capable to change current dynamics.
Today, on 13 October, macro-economic statistics, which can affect the rate of EUR/USD, is not scheduled for the release. Only on Tuesday, ZEW economic sentiment (Germany) will become known.

Support and resistance
High volatility is not expected today. On the four-hour chart technical indicators show the lull in the market. Bollinger bands are directed sideways; MACD histogram is moving along the zero line, demonstrating lack of activity in the market.
Support levels: 1.2645, 1.2600, 1.2570 and 1.2500.
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2735 and 1.2790.

Trading tips
It is likely that the pair will slowly decline to the level of 1.2600 and after breaking down of this level the pair will go down to 1.2570.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. During another correction the pair has broken through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, it can be a beginning of trend reversal. The closest support level is Kujun-sen line (0.9534). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.9571.



USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the pair is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending.. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9494. Tenkan-sen line becomes a resistance at 0.9577.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.9534, 0.9494.
Resistance levels: 0.9577, 0.9571.

Trading tips
Short-term buy positions can be opened at current price with targets at 0.9577.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend
On Tuesday the Pound has cheapen against the USD, and the pair GBP/USD has broken important support level of 1.6000. Currently the pair is traded at the level of 1.5900; in the near future GBP/USD may go further down up to the level of 1.5850.The surge of sale of the British currency was caused by the data on the consumer price, which has grown to the level of 1.2%. This fact can force the Bank of England to postpone the rise in the interest rate, which, in its turn, will have a negative impact on the national currency. Note that the target inflationary level set by the Bank of England is 2%.
Today, the data on British unemployment rate will become known. If this index fall below 6.1%, the Pound is likely to strengthen.

Trading tips
The nearest support level is 1.5930 (1/8 Murray). Support level is Murray line of 0/8 (1.5885).

Trading tips
It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.5885 with protective orders at 1.5920 and the target of 1.5840.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, the cloud can’t reverse and remains descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (0.8755). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (0.8685).



AUD/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair is consolidating around Tenkan-sen line, which is now a resistance level (0.8775). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (0.8636).



Key levels

Support levels: 0.8685, 0.8636.
Resistance levels: 0.8755, 0.8775.

Trading tips

On the both charts we can see the development of the downward movement. Targets for the short positions are 0.8685 and 0.8636.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD

USD/CAD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming trend reversal patter. However the downward impetus wasn’t enough and Tenkan-sen line is still a support level at 1.1252. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart form above; current cloud is still ascending. Kijun-sen (1.1293) is the closest resistance level. If the pair breaks down the red line, the next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud (1.1191).




USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair is still trading within the upward channel. Tenkan-sen line becomes support level (1.1233) once again. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected t be a resistance level at 1.1350.



Key levels
Support levels: 1.1252, 1.1233, 1.1191.
Resistance levels: 1.1293, 1.1350.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart we’ll receive a signal to sell as soon as Chinkou Span line crosses the price chart.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
The pair has been growing since the beginning of the current trading session, reaching the local highs at the level of 1.6183 and continuing last week’s trend. The “bulls” will try to overcome the nearest resistance level of 1.621, which is the key one at the moment. The pair GBP/USD will need additional drivers in order to go up and tomorrow’s statistics can act as such a momentum. Tomorrow morning members of the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England will have a voting. It is expected that the majority will vote against the changes. The pair can also get support tomorrow after the release of the US consumer price index.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that the pair is undergoing correction; in the near future the pair can continue to decline. Stochastic is in the overbought zone; both of its lines are directed downwards. Signal line of MACD indicator has left histogram limits and is directed downwards. Resistance lines: 1.6175, 1.6215 and 1.6250. Support lines: 1.6130, 1.6060, 1.6000 and 1.5950.

Trading tips
The pair is likely to decline after the correction; however do not forget about the protective orders. It is recommended to open sell positions from the level of 1.6215.Limit buy positions can be opened at the levels of 1.6030 and 1.5950.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: low inflation rate can affect USD

Current trend

On Tuesday the price of the currency pair EUR/USD had corrected significantly, reaching the lows at the level of 1.2705. At the moment the pair has potential to go further down. Market participants are waiting for the release of the US consumer price index for September. It is expected that this index will continue negative tendency, going down from 1.7% to 1.6%. If this forecast proves to be true, the price of the pair can drop, as due to the decrease in inflation the US Fed is unlikely to launch tightening of the monetary policy and certainly it will not happen at the next meeting, which will be held next week.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show that the price continues to test the level of 1.2705. Breakdown of this level will make it possible for the price to go down to 1.2660 and 1.2620. Probability of the decline in price is confirmed by Bollinger bands, which have turned down, as well as by MACD histogram, which has moved to the negative zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic lines, on the contrary, can leave oversold zone in the near future and form a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.2705, 1.2660 and 1.2620.
Resistance levels: 1.2765 and 1.2800.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions after consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2705. Primary target for these positions will be the level of 1.2660, the second target: 1.2620.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited