LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The quotes of the pair NZD/USD continue to drop. On Wednesday the price has reached the lows since February at the level of 0.8077. The decline was triggered by the outcome of the FOMC meeting; as it became known the volume of asset purchase will be reduced again, while incentive program will be soon terminated completely, which indicates the strength of the American economy. The meeting participants promised not to raise interest rates for a long time, especially since inflation rate has not yet reached the target of 2%.
Today, the New Zealand dollar has won back some of the losses due to the positive statistics on the New Zealand’ GDP. This index amounted to 0.7% in Q2, exceeding the forecast. Attention today shall be also focused on the American real estate market statistics for August, which, as expected, will be weaker than the previous one. This fact can put pressure on the USD.

Support and resistance

It is likely that in the near future the price of the pair will continue to rise up to the level of 0.8160 (middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator). After that the price will reverse and go down to the lows of February. Technical indicators show that upward correction will continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and are rising now.
Support levels: 0.8100 and 0.8077.
Resistance levels: 0.8160 and 0.8210.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions at the current price and take profit at 0.8160. Pending orders can be placed at the same level with the target of 0.8100.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Euro will continue to decline

Current trend

On Thursday the price of the pair EUR/USD has reached the level of 1.2930 (middle line of Bollinger bands); however, the pair could not consolidate at this level. Today, the pair started to go down. The American dollar was supported by strong data on the American labor market. The number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits has considerably decreased.
In addition, Euro is under pressure from some internal and external economic factors. The sum, granted to European banks by ECB as part of the TLTRO program was less than expected, amounting to 82.6 billion euro, which indicates slow development of the real sector of European economy. Investors are still concerned about exchange of sanctions between EU and Russia. Last Friday EU launched another package of restrictions against Russian companies and Russian Federation is considering counter measures. What measures will be like we do not know yet, as well as the damage, which they may bring to the European economy.

Support and resistance

In the near future the pair is likely to continue to decline to the levels of 1.2810-1.2800. Technical indicators confirm this scenario. Bollinger bands have started to turn downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and are directed downwards.

Support levels: 1.2850 and 1.2800.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930 and 1.2975.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price and take profit at the level of 1.2800.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD

USD/CAD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. The pair has entered the cloud, borders of which become support (1.0960) and resistance levels (1.1042).



USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair is trying to break through Tenkan-sen line (1.0993), which will serve as support level afterwards. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be on of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line 1.1092.



Key levels
Support levels: 1.0993, 1.0960.
Resistance levels: 1.1042, 1.1092.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair is trading within the cloud, it is not recommended to open new trades at current price. Pending buy orders can be placed above 1.1042 with targets around 1.1100.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: either the correction or the rise?

Current trend

On Monday, the currency pair USD/JPY has corrected after the long-term growth. Probably, this is just a technical correction, which can reach the level of 107.30. However, overall state of the Japanese economy leaves much to be desired. Japanese GDP fell by 1.8% in Q2. Situation with the consumer-price inflation is also very complicated. According to the experts of the Economic Cooperation Organization, target inflation level of 2% will not be reached soon. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will have to apply additional measures of monetary stimulus, which in future will weaken the Japanese currency. In the medium-term, the pair has a potential to grow up.
Support to the USD can be provided today by the release of the preliminary PMI in the US manufacturing sector for September. It is expected that the index will rise up to the level of 58.0 points.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show that downward correction will continue. Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms the development of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards and may change movement direction in the near future.
Support levels: 108.30 and 107.30.
Resistance levels: 108.80, 109.20 and 109.50.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 107.30 if the price consolidates below the level of 108.30. Long positions can be opened in case of breakdown of the level of 108.90 with the first target of 109.20 and the next target of 109.50.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart the pair XAG/USD is trading within a narrow channel. The pair has almost reached the lowest level this year at 17.33. Meanwhile, the price has hit the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, now it can bounce off and return to the middle MA at 17.76. Then the pair will probably go down to the level of 17.55. Downward trend is confirmed by both Stochastic lines, which are directed downwards, and MACD histogram, which is in negative zone.



XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is trading within a downward channel. After small correction to the level of 17.78 the pair continues to follow Bearish trend. Bollinger bands are directed downwards promising a decline towards 17.45. MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and turned up.



Key levels

Support levels: 17.33, 17.70, 17.55
Resistance levels: 17.76, 17.84, 18.39.

Trading tips

The situation is controversial. On the four-hour chart the price is in a sideways channel, however on the daily chart we can see a development of the downward trend. Sell positions can be opened below 17.70 with targets at 17.55 and 17.45. Buy orders can be placed above 17.76 with take-profits at 18.05.

Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the pair can undergo correction

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair GBP/USD has lost 100 points, falling to resistance level of 1.6290 (lower line of Bollinger bands); however the pair failed to consolidate below this level. The USD was supported by the data on the US real estate market: volume of the new houses sales has increased by 18.0% in August, which was above the forecast (504 thousand houses).
Today, the pair may undergo correction several times. American statistics on the number of orders for durable goods is expected to be poor, which will put strong pressure on the British currency. In addition, the head of the Bank of England will give a speech today, which can add dynamics to the pair.

Support and resistance

In the near future the pair may undergo correction to the level of 1.6360 (middle line of Bollinger bands). If the price consolidates above this level, next target of the “bulls” will be 1.6410. However, it is likely that the price will reverse at the level of 1.6360 and go to down to the levels of 1.6290, 1.6250 and 1.6200. Technical indicators demonstrate mixed signals. Bollinger bands seem to diverge, indicating the formation of the downtrend. MACD histogram has moved to the negative zone; however this breakout can be false. Stochastic lines on the contrary, have crossed, and are leaving oversold zone now, forming a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.6290, 1.6250 and 1.6200.
Resistance levels: 1.6360 and 1.6410.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short- term long positions at the current price with the target of 1.6360. Pending orders to sell can be opened at the level of 1.6360. If the price consolidates below the level of 1.6290, it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 1.6200.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: breakdown of last year lows will push the pair down

Current trend

European currency continues to fall due to the negative stats on EU economic system. The last nail in the coffin was IFO indices, which were even lower than predicted. The pair EUR/USD has broken down the support level of 1.2820 and reached last year lows, but then was corrected to the level of 1.2750.
Today investors are waiting for the US GDP data and ССI publications. However, even weak US data won't help Euro.

Support and resistance

The decrease under lows of November 2012 will allow the pair to go further down to the levels of 1.2400, 1.2300. The latter doesn't seem so incredible now. Some experts predict that in 2015 one Euro will cost $1.
Support levels : 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2300, 1.2200.
Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2820, 1.2910, 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3190.

Trading tips

It is hard to tell whether the pair breaks down support levels of turn up. Pending sell orders should be placed below 1.2660 with targets at 1.2300. Long trades can also be open with short stop-loss at 1.2660 and take-profit at 1.3000.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general review

Current trend
Yesterday, the price of the crude oil Brent had traded in the narrow channel of 96.42-97.45. Low price level is maintained due to several factors. Last Thursday State Oil Corporation of Libya National Oil Corporation increased production of oil to 925 thousand barrels per day. Member of the OPEC gradually returns to the market after one year absence caused by the complicated political situation.
Another factor, which puts pressure on the oil price - is the investors’ concern associated with the decrease in oil consumption in two largest world markets: China and Europe.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 95.59 (lows of 24 September) and 95.00, 94.00 (important psychological level). Resistance levels: 97.45 (yesterday’s highs), 98.72 (moving average with the period of 21 days), 100.30 (Fibonacci retracement of 23.6%).

Trading tips
After the consolidation of the price above the level of 97.45, next targets will be the levels of 98.72 and 100.00. If downtrend continues and the level of 95.59 will be broken down, next target will be the level of 94.00.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Last Friday the pair EUR/USD continued to decline, dropping to the level of 1.2500, which is a strong support level, coinciding with Fibonacci retracement line of 23.6%. The decline was triggered by the data on the US labor market. Due to positive news the pair hit new lows. It became know that the number of new jobs outside agricultural sector amounted to 248 thousand against the forecast of 215 thousand. Unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9%. Therefore, recovery of the American economy is well under way.
At the moment the decline in price is prevented by the strong support level, which is unlikely to be broken down without additional drivers. There will not be many important news releases this week. Nevertheless, breakdown of the level of 1.2500 can be provoked by stops, which may lead the pair to the decline of 1.2400-1.2385. Note also that the pair EUR/USD is in the downward cannel and has now entered thr correction phase.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2485 and 1.2500: the latter one is obviously the most important target of the “bears”.
Resistance levels: 1.2550, 1.2580, 1.2605 and 1.2650.

Trading tips

Currently it is likely that the pair will consolidate and trade in the narrow range. It makes sense to place limit sell orders at the levels of 1.2605 and 1.2650. Short positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.2500. Buy positions are advisable above the level of 1.2550.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: technical analysis

USD/JPY, H4
On the four-hour chart the pair USD/JPY is traded in the rather wide channel. Currently, the quotes are at the level of 108.66. The price has not reached the lower line of Bollinger bands indicator (108.32) and is being corrected upwards. Following the minor correction, the pair will again fall to the lower moving average line and then the trend will reverse. Probability of the further decline is also confirmed by MACD histogram, which is in the negative zone and the volume of which is increasing. Stochastic lines are ready to intersect and turn downwards.



USD/JPY, D1
On the daily chart the pair has reached the annual highs at the level of 109.84. Now the price has broken down the middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator and continues to approach the lower line of the indicator at the level of 108.16. After that the pair will reverse and undergo slight correction. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and moving upwards, which confirms probability of the correction.



Key levels
Support levels: 108.16, 108.32 and 106.80.
Resistance levels: 108.94, 109.15 and 108.71.

Trading tips
The four-hour chart indicates prospects of the slight growth in the pair. On the daily chart the lines of the “Bollinger bands” indicator are narrowing, indicating that the price can make sharp movements soon. Considering that the pair USD/JPY has already reached its annual peak, we can expect that the pair will start declining. In the short-term, buy orders can be placed from the level of 108.32 with the target of 108.70. In the short-term it makes sense to open sell positions below the level of 108.16 with the target of 106.80.

Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited