LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the USD fell down against major competitors, following the release of poor US macro-economic statistics. It became known that the number of new jobs was below the forecast, amounting to 209 000. Unemployment rate went up by 0.1% in July, amounting to 6.2%. Although ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector was above the forecast, amounting to 57.1 points, investors did not become more optimistic about the American currency.
Marco-economic data, which is going to be released today, is unlikely to affect movement in the pair EUR/USD. Investors are waiting for the data on retail sales in Eurozone and ISM business activity index in the service sector of the USA, which will be released on Tuesday.

Support and resistance
On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands demonstrate slight divergence. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are rapidly decreasing, indicating growing influence of the buyers.
Support levels: 1.3405, 1.3365, 1.3320 and 1.3285.
Resistance levels: 1.3445, 1.3485 and 1.3550.

Trading tips
Buy positions can be opened after consolidation of the pair above the level of 1.3445 with the target of 1.3485. The formation of the uptrend is possible after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3485, from which the price may go up to the level of 1.3550. Sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.3405.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend
After failing to break out the level of 103.00, the pair USD/JPY started the correction. However, the Yen exceeded resistance level of the yearly downtrend, therefore, in the short-term the pair may go up to the level of 105.44.
On the daily chart indicators give mixed signals. MACD histogram is above the zero line; its volumes are increasing, indicating that uptrend will continue. The signal lines of Stochastic have crossed and left overbought zone, moving downwards.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 102.33 (lows of 1 August, Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%), 102.05 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%, moving average with the period of 100), 101.8 (Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%, moving average with the period of 21).
Resistance levels are the local highs of 102.73, 103.08 and 103.39.

Trading tips
Short positions are recommended after breaking out the level of 102.33 with the target of 102.30. Buy positions can be placed after consolidation of the price above the level of 102.80.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
Following the significant decline, the British Pound had slightly corrected up to 1.6870, but then fell to the level of 1.6840. Further decline in the pair has been prevented by positive data on business activity index in the service sector of Great Britain, which also cause the rise in the pair GBP/USD up to resistance level of 1.6880. However, the pair failed to consolidate at this level as this requires additional momentum. The data on the British industrial production, which will be released today, may provide such a momentum. Tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of England is unlikely to give a surprise, so the market is expected to be quiet.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance levels are 1.6870 and 1.6880. The latter one is the key level and if the price consolidates above this level, the pair will be able to reach the level of 1.6940, or even 1.7000.
Support levels are 1.6860, 1.6840 and 1.6820. Target level of the “bears” is 1.6800. Breakdown of this level will enable the Pound to continue the decline up to 1.6745 and 1.6685.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.6880 with the targets of 1.6940 and 1.7000. Sell positions can be opened below the level of 1.6800.



Ilya Laschenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday, the currency pair USD/JPY had a not very good day. The pair has been declining throughout the whole day. In the evening, following the release of US news on trading balance and oil inventories, the pair sharply went down up to support level of 101.80. However, after that the pair won back the lost positions. At the closing session the pair traded near the level of 102.00.
This morning after the opening of the Asian trading session, the pair tried to break out the level of 102.20, which coincides with Fibonacci level of 61.8%. The “bulls” managed to go up and at the moment the pair is traded at the level of 102.25.
Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will be held a press-conference devoted to the monetary policy, which may change movement direction of the Japanese currency.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that the pair is undergoing correction, which is nearing completion. After that the pair will try to break down the level of 101.80. In case of the opposite situation the pair will go to resistance level of 102.80.
Resistance levels: 102.35, 102.50, 102.70 and 102.80.
Support levels: 102.20, 102.00, 101.90 and 101.80.

Trading tips
It is likely that the pair will move in the channel for some time; therefore, it makes sense to place pending limits at the levels of 102.60 and 101.90. Short positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 101.80; long positions are advisable after consolidation of the price above the level of 103.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: geopolitical situation is the priority No 1

Current trend
On Thursday European statistics were disappointing, while American data was above expectations. However, despite this fact the pair failed to consolidate below the local lows and the key support level of 1.3370. As it became known industrial output index in Germany was only 0.5%. The interest rate decision of the ECB as well as the press-conference had hardly affected the rate of the pair.
Sanctions against Russia are not favourable for EU either, as the losses of EU can amount to about 15 billion euro. Now the main catalyst is geopolitical tension and sanctions, which not only affect European economy, but also scare away potential investors.
Today, European currency has slightly grown against the USD. Euro is trading at the level of 1.3390. It seems that trading on Friday will be quiet, as important new has been released and investors are prepared to have a weekend. Trading volume in the market is decreasing, which means that volatility is not going to be high.

Support and resistance
It is likely that the pair EUR/USD will continue to trade near the key support level of 1.3370 not being able to regain. In future the USD is likely to strengthen and the demand for Euro is likely to decrease. In such case the pair will decline to the target levels of 1.3300 (1.3250).
Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3170 and 1.3130.
Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3510, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3820 and 1.3900.

Trading tips
It is recommended to place pending sell orders from the levels of 1.3400 and 1.3450 and take profit at the levels of 1.3300-1.3250.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend
The price of Brent fell last Friday, after the news that the USA are planning to attack militants in Iraq. Investors took this news as an indication of the upcoming stability in Iraq, one of the largest oil production countries in the world. Under the pressure from this news Brent fell below the level of $105.00 per barrel.
Important news, which can affect the price of Brent, is not scheduled for release today. Geopolitical situation remains to be the dominating factor of the oil price formation.

Support and resistance
On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed sideways, indicating the lull in the market. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are gradually increasing, which is a sign of the further decline in price.
Support levels: 104.70, 104.00 and 103.30.
Resistance levels: 105.30, 106.05 and 106.80.

Trading tips
If the “bears” manage to exceed resistance level of 104.70, next target will be at the level of 104.00. Sell positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 104.70 with the target of 104.00.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Pound has started to win back losses

Current trend
At the beginning of the week the British currency tries to regain losses against the USD after the significant decline. The pair is supported by investors, who started to take profit on short positions for the pair GBP/USD near the key support level. In addition, the USD has dropped in price amid yesterday’s poor data on the US labour market. The number of vacancies and labour turnover in the USA was below expectations.
Despite the decrease of the unemployment rate in the UK, the pair dropped due to poor data on average wages. The Pound is still oversold and any negative data can affect the rate of the British currency. Today, attention shall be paid to inflationary report and the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mr. Mark Carney. US index of retail sales and inventories will also become known today.

Support and resistance
range and the key resistance level of 1.6920. In future downtrend will continue with the target level of 1.6550.

Support levels: 1.6750, 1.6700, 1.6660 and 1.6550.
Resistance levels: 1.6815, 1.6920, 1.7000, 1.7060, 1.7150 and 1.7180.

Trading tips
It is recommended to place pending sell positions from the level of 1.6900 (1.6920) and take profit at the level of 1.6660.



Dmitriy Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the decline in Euro will continue

Current trend
European currency has been trading near the key support level of 1.3350 for a few days. All attempts to breakthrough this level, have been unsuccessful, although Euro has been under pressure throughout several weeks. Geopolitical tension and sanctions have had a negative impact on the European economy; the demand for Euro continues to decrease, while negative indices help intensify pressure on Euro. It became known today that GDP of Germany, France and Eurozone as a whole were all below the forecast.
Today, the data on the US labour market will be released. A speech of the Russian President before Federal Ministers and deputies of the State Duma will be of interest. Recently, world community follows with insight all statements made by Vladimir Putin. As experience shows, his statements can significantly affect the rate of Euro.

Support and resistance
In future the pair is likely to fall to the target level of 1.3250 (1.3100), which has been confirmed by the main indicators.
Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3000, 1.3250, 1.3170 and 1.3100.
Resistance levels: 1.3430, 1.3520, 1.3660, 1.3770, 1.3860, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Trading tips
It is recommended to place pending sell orders from the level of 1.3430 and take profit at the level of 1.3250.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GPB/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Last week, volatility in the pair GPB/USD was high. In the middle of the week the pair went up the level of 1.6844, but then sharply went down to the level of 1.6656. As the result, by the closing session on Friday, quotes could not consolidate above the level of 1.6700. The decline was caused by the data, which showed that wages in the UK dropped by 0.2%. In addition, the Bank of England has lowered forecast of wages growth from 2.5% to 1.5%. The comments of Mark Carney did not leave hopes for the rise in interest rates this year.
This week also is going to be eventful. On Tuesday, consumer price indices of the UK and USA for July will become known. On Wednesday, the meeting of the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England will be held; however the decisions made at the meeting are unlikely to have a strong impact, as Mark Carney has already gave to understand that changes in the interest rates have not been planned in the near future. On Thursday British retail sales data for July will be released.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6745, 1.6800 and 1.6840.
Support levels: 1.6700, 1.6685, 1.6670 and 1.6656. The main target of the “bears” is the level of 1.6600. However, it will be difficult for them to break down this level.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.6700. Limit buy orders can be placed at the levels of 1.6660 and 1.6600. Buy positions are recommended above the level of 1.6770.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The currency pair EUR/USD started this week with the decline. European currency is under pressure from poor data on trade balance in Eurozone. This index has been decreasing for the third consecutive month, reaching the level of 13.8 billion euro in June. Note also that the restrictions in imports of the products from European countries introduced by the Russian Federation has have a negative impact on Euro. In future this measure can significantly affect European producers, thus decreasing GDP of EU.
Today’s fundamental news will include consumer price index for July in the USA. (According to the forecast this index will remain at the level of 2.0%). The data on the American real estate market will be also known. It is expected that the number of permits to construct and foundations of the new houses will increase, which will provide support to the American currency.

Support and resistance

In the near future it is likely that the price will continue to go down to the levels of 1.3330 and 1.3310. We do not expect that the quotes will go further down, as market participants will not take risk prior to the speech of the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen, which will take place in Jackson Hole.
Technical indicators demonstrate mixed signals. Bollinger bands are diverging, confirming downtrend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are ready to leave oversold zone and form a buy signal.

Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to open short positions from the level of 1.3345 with the target of 1.3300. Long positions with the target of 1.3400 are recommended only if the price goes up to the level of 1.3365.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited