24th June 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Monday EURUSD had an indifferent days trading as the price action hovered around the days open. However once again EURUSD did find support at the 8 period daily moving averages and this ultimately led to a higher close.
Market overview
The Daily's
The breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down.
The 5th June large 165 pip range bullish bar has put a framework around the price action. Subsequent price action over the past two weeks has traded within this range. Therefore a move above or below the high of this range should give an indication of the direction of the medium term price action with the key levels being 1.3680 up and 1.3500 down.
More recently EURUSD has made some impressive gains over the past few sessions. Although we are coming into an area of resistance at the 1.3670 resistance level and 34 periods daily moving averages a breach of the 1.3677 level being the pivot high of the 6th June would be sufficient to change the daily trend to up.
The Weekly’s
From a weekly point of view EURUSD is trading in a strong up trend however over the past few weeks the price activity has experienced a multi week corrective sell off. This has seen EURUSD breach its intermediate trend line and trade under both the 8 and 34 period weekly moving averages. Of late EURUSD has been trading within a 4 week trading being 1.3680 to 1.3500. This is the same range that was mentioned in the daily analysis.
Last week’s weekly candle closed on Monday and between the 1.3550 and 1.3670 levels. This week’s candle is trading positively with the price action currently trading above last week’s high but not above last week’s range. I would like to see a break above the highs of the weekly range and the averages as an indication that the price action is rotating back to the long side.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle.
From an intraday perspective EURUSD is trading within a 4 hour up trend and according to our current calculations the average true range projections are 1.3661 to 1.3543.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3670 resistance level that coincides with the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see the price action trade back to the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
Summary
Monday GBPUSD closed the day higher as the price action continued to trade above the 8 period daily moving averages and between the 1.6985 support level and 1.7055 resistance level.
Market overview the Daily's
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle.
We have seen a corrective zigzag formation set up which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. The past two weeks price bullish activity and the break above the 1.6920 level has confirmed that this was a consolidation pattern. Subsequently GBPUSD has successfully tested the 1.6996 level being this year’s and a 5 year high.
More recently GBPUSD has pushed higher from the 5 year highs and traded above the significant 1.7000 level and is now testing the 1.7050 resistance level. Over the past three days GBPUSD has consolidated at the highs of a 3 day trading range.
The Weekly's
From a weekly point of view GBPUSD is trading in a strong up trend. Although it may possibly be unwise to short such a strong trend the price action is now becoming increasingly extended from its averages. Therefore it would not be a surprise if we see some down to sideways price action.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
From an intraday perspective GBPUSD is trading in a 4 hour uptrend and according to our current calculations the average true range projections are 1.7097 to 1.6957.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade back towards the 1.6985 support level.
USDJPY
Summary
Monday USDJPY closed the day lower as the price action continued to trade around the 101.70 support level and 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview The Daily's
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down.
The price action over the past few trading sessions has seen a move above both the 102.13 and 102.36 pivot highs. Although USDJPY has since pulled back the overall price action could indicate that the daily trend could possibly be attempting to rotate back to a daily up trend.
The Weekly's
From a weekly point of view USDJPY is trading in a strong uptrend however the recent price activity has seen this currency pair pull back and trade within a tight range for a considerable time. The net effect is that the price action is now forming a large triangle consolidation pattern. A break of which could possibly indicate the immediate longer term trend direction. More recently USDJPY is currently trading within a 4 week range of 102.80 to 101.60. A break of this range up or down is needed if we are to see an increase in weekly volatility for USDJPY.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
From an intraday perspective USDJPY is trading in a 4 hour up trend and according to our current calculations the average true range projections are 102.31 to 101.51.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back into the area of last week’s high at 102.40.
USDCHF
Summary
Monday USDCHF had another quiet day as the price action continued to be squeezed between 8 and the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview The Daily's
USDCHF has been trading in a long up trend following the bounce off the March and May lows. This move has taken the price action into an area of Fibonacci resistance. This has coincided with a large bearish spike that has for the time being put a top in the market at the 0.9037 level.
USDCHF attempted to make a move back to this level however the upward momentum lost energy as the price action consolidated around its 8 period daily moving averages.
More recently USDCHF has rejected higher prices and this. This led to a move lower for USDCHF. Currently the price action is being squeezed between the 8 and the 34 period daily moving averages. A break out of this congestion area could give us an indication of the immediate direction of the price action with a breach of the 0.8907 level being the pivot low of the 5th June would technically signal a lower low and a rotation back to a daily down trend.
The Weekly's
From a weekly point of view USDCHF is trading in a large down trend however the price action has been showing signs of wanting to reverse to this trend. This can be seen by the double bottom that was formed and which was followed by USDCHF breaking and trading above a down trend line. It now remains to be seen if the weekly moving averages can cross positively as this will give further confirmation that we are witnessing a weekly positive rotation. More recently weekly price action has been trading within a three weekly range being 0.9037 to 0.8907. A break above or beneath this range could possibly give an indication of the longer term weekly momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle ranges and between both the 8 and the 34 period daily moving averages.
From an intraday perspective the 4 hour chart is bearish with the price action having tested and bounce off a prior recent low. According to my current calculations the average true range projections are 0.8988 to 0.8896.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test the 0.8907 level being the 5th June pivot low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF bounce off the 34 period daily moving averages and test the highs of last week’s range.
AUDUSD
Summary
Monday AUDUSD experienced a strong up day as the price action closed above the 8 period daily moving averages and 0.9390 resistance levels.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. The prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend. Subsequently we have seen the price action actually breaking and closing above this price pattern.
More recently AUDUSD has been trading above the 0.9390 level and is being offered additional support by the 8 period daily moving averages.
The Weekley's
From a weekly point of view however the chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action having corrected lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area. The recent price action has seen AUDUSD bounce off its 8 period weekly averages. I am therefore monitoring the price action for a test of the recent isolated high of 0.9460
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range and above the 0.9390 level.
From an intraday basis AUDUSD is trading in a 4 hour up trend and according to my current calculations the average true range projections are 0.9478 to 0.9363.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential downside test of the 0.9460 level being this year’s high.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
GOLD
Summary
Monday Gold closed higher as the price action found support at the 1310.00 support level.
Market overview The Daily's
The breach of the 1316 level has effectively changed the intraday trend to up. This move was very stunning as it cleared out a large area of horizontal resistance and breached a large multi month down trend line. A consequence of this move higher has seen the moving averages form a gold cross.
The Weekly's
From a weekly point of view Gold is trading in a down trend however this week’s price action would appear to be attempting to form a lower high pattern in what is a large downward sloping triangle formation. A break of this triangle either up or down would give an indication of the possible longer term trend directional momentum.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened bearishly as the price action trades at the highs of Thursday’s candle ranges.
From an intraday perspective the four hour chart is trading in an uptrend however the price action finding supports at the 1310 support level. According to my current calculations the average true range projections are 1333 to 1302.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to possibly test the 1310 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold test last week’s high.
OIL
Summary
Monday Oil had a strong down day as the price action closed under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview The Daily's
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend with the price action trading above the highs of this year. The overall price pattern would appear to be a break out of a large converging triangle formation.
The Weekly's
The weekly time frame is extremely bullish as the price action has broken above recent highs however it would appear the Oil is now becoming increasingly extended from its averages. The 105.00 level is increasingly becoming an important area of support.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened negatively as the price action trades under Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a potential test of last week’s high.
Alternatively a failure to higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 105.00 support level.
USDCAD
Summary
Monday USDCAD continued to trade lower as the price action penetrated and closed under the 1.0790 support level.
Market overview The Daily's
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend. The breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low has now confirmed that the daily down trend is intact. The next level of support comes in at 1.0650.
The Weekley's
From a weekly point of view the recent events have had a dramatic effect on USDCAD as the price action has failed to hold support at its daily averages and the 1.0790 support level. Although the weekly trend continues to be long it remains to be seen if this negative activity can now reverse this current directional momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened bearishly as the price action trades under Monday’s candle range and the 1.0790 level.
From an intraday point of view the 4 hour chart is trading in a down trend. According to my current calculations the average true range projections are 1.0770 to 1.0681.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test the 1.0681 lower average true range level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that USDCAD trades back up to the 1.0790 resistance level.