LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

On Monday gold tried to regained lost positions, closely approaching to 1300.00, but could not maintain this level for long. In the afternoon the pair XAU/USD started to lose positions because of the rapid rise in the USD at the stock market. However, high demand for the precious metal remains due to tension in Ukraine, as gold has always been a tool to hedge risks, including political ones.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show that the pair has entered the sideways channel and will trade in the range of 1291.00-1296.55. MACD histogram is at the zero level, not giving any signals, while Stochastic is in the overbought zone and can form a sell signal.
Support levels: 1292.00, 1285.00 and 1280.00. Resistance levels: 1296.65, 1300.00 and 1314.00.

Trading tips

It makes sense to sell after consolidation of the price above the level of 1300.00. Short positions can be opened below the levels of 1285.00 with the target of 1275.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZD/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair is trying to break through the upper border of the cloud, which is a resistance level (0.8677). Tenkan-sen line is the closest support level (0.8653).



NZD/USD, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, indicating new wave of the Bullish trend. Chinkou Span line is following the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair is trading between Tenkan-sen (0.8691) and Kijun-sen (0.8648) lines, which become resistance and support levels respectively.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.8648, 0.8653.
Resistance levels: 0.8677, 0.8691.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the pair is trading within the cloud, it is not recommended to open new trades at current price. Pending buy orders can be placed above 0.8677.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: deep correction and a new upward wave

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair continued to decline despite favourable data on the UK labour market. Unemployment rate amounted to 6.8%, which proved correctness of the positive forecast. However, it is worth noting that the pace of decline in unemployment rate is gradually slowing down, the same as salary growth. The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney perplexed investors, saying that major economic indicators are declining, and at the same time noting that, there is a chance of raising interest rate.
Today’s key release is the American data on labour market and consumer price index. In addition, investors are waiting for the speech of the US Fed chairman, Janet Yellen. It is obvious that American regulator is trying to increase demand for the USD using all possibilities.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show that the pair had broken the bottom limit of the ascending channel and shifted into deep correction. In the medium-term the pair may decline to the key support level of 1.6700, and after that new upward wave may be formed.
Support levels: 1.6750, 1.6700 and 1.6600.
Resistance levels: 1.6830, 1.6900, 1.7000, 1.7050 and 1.7100.

Trading tips

In this situation it makes sense to place long positions and pending long positions from the level of 1.6700, take profit at 1.7000 and a short stop-loss.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are getting closer above the cloud prior to the formation of trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has broken down Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, the latter becomes a resistance level at 19.52. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 19.27.



XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart from; current cloud is descending. The pair is being corrected around Tenkan-sen line (19.49). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 18.48.



Key levels

Support levels: 19.27, 18.48.
Resistance levels: 19.49, 19.52.

Trading tips

Both charts confirm the development of the Bearish trend. Short trades can be opened at current price with targets at 19.27 и 18.48.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: decline will continue

Current trend

On Thursday the currency pair EUR/USD traded with high volatility. Following the release of poor data on GDP in Eurozone, the price fell to the level of 1.3647. However, in the afternoon the pair has almost regained losses, returning to the level of 1.3715 (middle line of Bollinger bands), after the release of negative data on the US industrial production.

Recall that preliminary GDP for Q1 in Europe has disappointed investors. The index has risen by 0.2% against expectations of 0.4%. US industrial production fell by 0.6% in April. Additional pressure on the USD was caused the rise in inflation up to the target of 2.0%.

Attention today shall be focused on the number of new houses construction in the USA. It is expected that this figure will rise up to 0.98 million. Housing market is traditionally very important for the American economy; therefore it makes sense to assume that the USD will strengthen.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level for the pair is 1.3665 (bottom line of Bollinger bands indicator). If this level is broken down, the price can go further down to the levels of 1.3640 and 1.3600. However, correction from the level of 1.3665 up to the level of 1.3715 (middle line of Bollinger bands) is not ruled out.

Technical indicators confirm probability of downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are not increasing any more. Stochastic lines are crossing and turning down, forming a sell signal.

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions at the current price level with the target of 1.3640. Pending buy orders with the target of 1.3715 are recommended at the level of 1.3665.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The British Pound failed to break down resistance level of 1.6841 (2/8 Murray level) and corrected to the level of 1.6820. If the level of 1.6841 is not broken down in the near future, the pair is likely to go down to the level of 1.6724 (1/8 Murray).
Tomorrow volatility may increase due to the release of the block of macro-economic news, including important British data on consumer price index. If the basic index grows, it will mean the rise in inflation and the Central Bank of England will have to introduce additional measures to control prices by way of rising interest rate. If the rate increases, it will lead to the rise in the national currency. In addition, recent rise of the minimal wages up to 6.5 pounds per hour indicates recovery of the British economy and will have a positive impact on the exchange rate of the Pound.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is 1.6846 (2/8 Murray). Support level is 1/8 Murray (1.6724).

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.6846 with stop-loss at 1.6810 and the target of 1.6970.




Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 19-23 May 2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the pair XAU/USD has been able to overcome resistance level of 1300.00 and reach the highs at 1305.00. However the pair was corrected down due to the strengthening of the US stocks. Investors are usually turn to the safe haven instruments when economic climate is unstable, and go back to highly volatile pairs as soon as there are signs of recovery.
Technical indicators confirm further fall. MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards. MA 20 has crossed MA 50 from above, forming a signal to sell.

Support and resistance

The closest support level is 1288.00; the next ones are 1285.00, 1280.00, 1277.20. Resistance levels are 1291.00, 1294.00, 1297.00, and 1300.00.

Trading tips

Most probable scenario is a development of the Bearish trend. Short positions can be opened below 1285.00 with targets at 1277.00. Pending buy orders can be paced above 1292.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.9268). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9158.



AUD/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. Under the pressure of the Dead Cross pattern the price has entered the cloud, which upper border becomes a resistance level at (0.9263). The closest support level is Senkou Span B line (0.9096).



Key levels

Support levels: 0.9158, 0.9096.
Resistance levels: 0.9268, 0.9263.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a development of the downward movement. Daily chart confirms Bearish trend. Targets for the short positions are 0.9158 and 0.9096.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the rise to the local highs at 1.7000

Current trend

As expected, following deep correction, the pair had reached the lower limit of the channel (1.6750), pushed off from this level, and started to rise. Yesterday, the pair has gained strength, due to positive data on the key British indices (CPI, PPI, RPI), and started to rise. It became known today that British retail sales in April rose by 1.3% exceeding the forecast of 0.4%. Following the release of this news, the pair has reached resistance level of 1.6920.
Today, investors will be focused on the speech of the US Fed leader, Janet Yellen and the minutes of the meeting of the US FOMC. It is not expected that the USD will rise significantly, as economic indices in the major industrial sectors are negative. The Pound, on the contrary, has received strong support from economic statistics. If economic growth rate in the UK continues to increase, the pair will reach the key resistance level and the local highs of 1.7000.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.6830, 1.6750, 1.6700 and 1.6600.
Resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6920, 1.7000, 1.7050 and 1.7100.

Trading tips

It is recommended to place long positions and pending long positions from the level of 1.6830 with take profit at the level of 1.7000 (1.7100).



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited