22nd April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Monday EURUSD traded in a fairly small bank holiday range as the price action tested the 1.3789 level being the low of the 15th April.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action tests the lows of Monday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3789 level being the low of the 15th April.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a breach of the averages and a test of last week’s high of 1.3864.
GBPUSD
Summary
Monday GBPUSD experienced a quiet day’s trading as the price action hovered around the 1.6795 level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. Following a corrective move back into the averages the price action appears to have resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action tests the 1.6795 level.
I am today monitoring the price action for a close above the 1.6822 level being the 17th February pivot high prior to a continuation of the move to the 1.6895 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
Summary
Monday USDJPY continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the averages.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. Following the corrective pull back it would appear that USDJPY has resumed its upward trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 103.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
Summary
Monday USDCHF continued to correct to the upside as the price action closed above its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. However we require a breach of the 0.8743 level being the last isolated low of the 11th April to confirm that the down trend is intact.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test the downward sloping trend line.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could possibly see a resumption of the daily down trend.
Gold
Summary
Monday Gold traded in a fairly volatile sessionas the price action tested Fibonacci support.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1310.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Monday AUDUSD traded in a narrow range under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly with the price action tests the 8 period daily moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move beneath the low of Monday’s candle range and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
Summary
Monday Oil traded lower as the price acton tested the 103.00 support level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.